Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦

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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦 banner
Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦

Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦

@WelshRev

Pioneer Minister in the Heart of Wales. Farms & serves as a rural chaplain online&on the ground. FREC-4. All views his own etc https://t.co/LUchas9ewe

Llandeilo, GB เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2011
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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦 รีทวีตแล้ว
Will Hayward
Will Hayward@WillHayCardiff·
Nigel Farage has called Welsh people “Foreign speakers” in a Cameo video. I hate to break it to you Mr Farage, but if you read a history book you would realise English is more foreign in the UK than Welsh. He said: “Gutted I couldn’t attend the wedding. I wanted to come, but I heard that half the guests were Welsh, and I don’t know. Who knows what would have happened with all those foreign speakers there. I don’t know.” This is at a time that his party are trying to convince people in Wales that they should elect them to the Welsh Parliament. Big credit to the Guardian for breaking this story: theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-int…
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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦
Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦@WelshRev·
Most of us avoid confrontation. At work. At home. With friends. It’s easier to keep the peace than say the hard thing. But what if staying silent actually costs more than speaking up? Welcome to today's Super Short Thought!
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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦
Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦@WelshRev·
Cameras on lampposts. Online tracking. Data everywhere. We live in a world where for most people, our privacy really matters to us. It's understandable. But what if the bigger question is this: What are we actually trying to hide … and why? Here's today's Super Short Thought.
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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦 รีทวีตแล้ว
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86·
JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

Right now, in barns and equipment sheds across the American Midwest, farmers are making the most consequential decision of this war. Not generals. Not senators. Farmers. At $683 per ton urea, corn economics have collapsed. Nitrogen is the single largest input cost for corn production. At pre-war prices a farmer could justify 180 pounds per acre and expect a margin. At $683 the math breaks. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria. They do not need the molecule trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. The seed decision is being made this week across roughly 90 million acres of American cropland. Once the planter rolls into the field, the choice is irreversible. Corn seed in the ground stays corn. Soy seed stays soy. The acreage allocation locks in. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. That report will tell the world how American agriculture responded to the Hormuz blockade. But the decisions it captures are being made now, in conversations between farmers and agronomists and seed dealers who are looking at nitrogen prices and making the rational economic choice: plant the crop that does not need the input you cannot afford. Every acre that shifts from corn to soybeans tightens the corn balance sheet for the rest of the year. Corn feeds livestock. Corn feeds ethanol. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually, consuming roughly 43 percent of the US corn crop regardless of price. That demand is inelastic. If acres shift and production falls while the mandate holds, corn prices spike. Feed costs spike. The protein cascade reverses. The US cattle herd sits at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry and pork margins that were benefiting from cheap feed compress when corn crosses $5 per bushel. This is how a naval blockade 7,000 miles from Iowa reaches the American grocery shelf. Not through oil. Not through shipping. Through nitrogen. The farmer cannot afford the molecule. The molecule cannot transit the strait. The farmer plants soy instead. The corn supply tightens. The ethanol mandate consumes its fixed share. The remaining corn reprices. The feed reprices. The meat reprices. The grocery bill reprices. The decision is not political. It is arithmetic performed on a kitchen table by a person who needs to plant in three weeks and cannot wait for a ceasefire, an escort convoy, or an insurance normalisation that the Red Sea precedent says takes years. The deepest penetrator in the American arsenal cannot reach a sealed Iranian doctrinal packet. But the fertiliser price it failed to resolve is reaching every planting decision on 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. The war’s most irreversible consequence is not happening in a bunker. It is happening in a barn. And by the time USDA publishes the data on March 31, the seeds will already be in the ground. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Linda James
Linda James@cerelin·
good news, clear TB test. Bad news fertiliser has come but at a massive £564 a tonne for 25-5-5 😡. With milk price still 16ppl unaffordable.
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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦
Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦@WelshRev·
Verse for the Day There are lots of people out there in Wales tonight who've been nailing lambing but feeling the weight of it ... late nights, early mornings, let-downs and losses. (PLEASE look after yourselves!) But none of that looks quite like what got done for us here 👇
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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦
Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦@WelshRev·
Every preacher, Minister and Ministerial trainee should, in my view take time to listen carefully to this and develop their own liberty in delivery of affective speech. Affective speech contains cognitive content, inspires the emotions which motivate the will and produce action.
Joanna Hardy-Susskind@Joanna__Hardy

This from @Geoffrey_Cox was titanic - a truly beautiful speech. He outshone those sat opposite. They could only watch. And nervously laugh. This should be seen by every new MP to understand what they do, & every new barrister to understand what we do.

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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦
Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦@WelshRev·
Super Short Thought Many feel pressure to go with things they know aren’t right. Society says: fit in, don’t rock the boat. But what if deep down you know you’re heading in the wrong direction? Christian faith begins not with a ritual, but with an honest pivot. Check it out 👇
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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦
Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦@WelshRev·
I SERIOUSLY hope, in an age when the @RoyalNavy can't project force near Cyprus nor in the Gulf, the @BritishArmy vehicles make you sick and the @RoyalAirForce has got F35s it can't deploy without US permission, the @DefenceHQ are TOTALLY across and 100% invested in this stuff 👇
Shawn Ryan@ShawnRyan762

"So we had Viper, which is today a 6.5ft long vertical takeoff kind of miniature fighter jet. And so the job of Viper is to do everything a fighter jet would do as best as can be done, while being cheap enough to mass manufacture, cheap enough to seriously go and make a million, two million of these things and then be runway independent. And so several hundred mile range, like 600 miles an hour, can go and get up to these high altitudes, but only cost $100,000. And you and I could take it out of a pelican case and launch it with no ground infrastructure.” @ethanrthornton @Mach_Industries

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Linda James
Linda James@cerelin·
@WelshRev Been 5 years clear now and what a difference it makes to being able to farm as we want. No overstocking as we can sell what we want. As a closed herd we should again be clear but we all know it's a lottery with TB
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Linda James
Linda James@cerelin·
Miserable day out there for our full herd TB test. Hope the results are good on Friday 🤞
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Rev Simon Bowkett 💙🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇺🇦 รีทวีตแล้ว
Ion Moraru 🇺🇦
Ion Moraru 🇺🇦@IonMoraruDairy·
„So we fix our eyes not on what is seen, but on what is unseen, since what is seen is temporary, but what is unseen is eternal.” 2 Corinthians 4:18 Have a blessed week everybody!
Ion Moraru 🇺🇦 tweet media
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Rory Stewart
Rory Stewart@RoryStewartUK·
Thank you to everyone who has been reading Politics On the Edge - if you missed it - Kindle has a 99p deal on it today - hope you enjoy it…🤞
Rory Stewart tweet media
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@cerelin @RoyalNavy @BritishArmy @RoyalAirForce @DefenceHQ @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13