Zeus
2.3K posts


Jane Street made ~$40B in 2025 with 3,500 employees, a ~2x from the year before. At ~65-70% profit margin, that's $8M profit / employee, the highest for a 1000+ ppl company. High-frequency trading continues to be the most efficient money making engine. I want to share an old story about my Jane Street interview in 2014. Jane Street was known for hiring a lot of math, physics and CS olympiad winners from top universities and putting them through many rounds - including, for trading roles, a gauntlet of mental math. It was my 6th interview and my final round and I recall being asked "What is the next day after today in DD/MM/YYYY where all the digits are unique?" They'd toy with you and say "You can use a pencil and paper, if you want" but you knew that was an instant no. Painstakingly and as quickly as I could, I came to an answer. "How confident are you that this is correct on a 0-1 probability scale?" the interviewer said. "0.95", I blurted out, not fully knowing how to answer that. "Are you sure?" After thinking harder for a few more seconds, I realized I could've flipped the digits around to get a closer date. I gave the interviewer my answer. It was correct. "0.95 huh?" he chuckled. That's when I knew I failed. Note: fwiw, other companies that come close in efficiency are - Tether ($90M+ profit/emp) - Hyperliquid ($80M+ profit/emp) and on revenue: - Valve ($50M/emp) - OnlyFans ($37M/emp) - Craigslist ($14M/emp) - Anthropic ($12M/emp, run rate) - OpenAI ($8M/emp, run rate) For comparison, Nvidia is very efficient at scale and is $4.4M/emp.













As I have been writing since last year, the most important window of risk for this cycle begins in the second half of April, by which time US economic and geopolitical risks will have accumulated. I've also been writing since December–January that the geopolitical conflict will further or re-escalate starting in the second half of April. Furthermore, since the week before the outbreak of the war with Iran, I have been saying that this conflict will drag on and cause more trouble than many believe, and I signaled that a new wave is coming. I provided a few free, highly profitable trade signals for #oil, $FNMA, the crash and bottom target zone for #gold, the $SPX top and bottom, and the early April rally. (I didn't expect such a rapid rally, but the spot showed a benign reaction at my levels, so we kept pushing higher. We trade what is in front of us, not what is stubbornly in our heads!) This rally is driven by mechanical flows and the AI sector, where problems are already starting to show. I wrote about this regarding the $NVDA ER and $TSMC —look it up. This bottleneck is just starting to materialize. For now, they are explaining it away as excess demand. We need to pay attention to the upcoming earnings reports. The secondary market is signaling the problem☝️ Big tech spending significantly exceeds ROI. End-user demand is falling. The excess demand cited in forward guidance comes purely from infrastructure build-out! This is crucial. The gap will continue to widen, leading to capital outflows from investors, especially when the inflation wave hits. (After all, the impact of the oil shock hasn't even rippled through the economy yet.) Stagflation and the ensuing oil shock will put even more pressure on the market. But I will explain these mechanisms in greater detail in my Sunday blog post. With Iran, the US has opened Pandora's box, just as I warned my followers. This belated move has triggered an oil crisis and decades of destabilization in the Middle East. Despite the massive US-Israeli air campaign, and despite the heavy losses suffered by Iran's top leadership, the Iranian regime's institutional framework remains completely resilient—just as I pointed out a week before the conflict, for which many mocked me... An opposition takeover is unlikely. The coalition has established local air superiority, destroying over 200 Iranian air defense systems. However, due to the absence of a swift military victory (the capitulation of the leadership), there is a visible shift in strategy toward the 'Dahiya doctrine', which focuses on widespread destruction of infrastructure to break the will of the population and the economy. As I wrote recently, B-1 bombers and precision strikes are continuously targeting deep underground nuclear facilities and the stockpiles of highly enriched uranium that Tehran amassed over the course of 2025. Iran's main focus has been placed on hybrid warfare and the maximum activation of its proxy militias (the Houthis blocking the Red Sea, along with armed groups in Iraq and Syria) in order to drag out the conflict across as many fronts as possible. This means two things: 1) market participants won't have accurate information about unfolding events, making it difficult to properly price in and forecast risks. 2) China gets more time to quietly prepare its administrative blockade of the First Island Chain, thereby slowing down one of the Western world's most critical supply chains. A new wave is unfolding. I have already written everything there is to say about this—the significance of propaganda, inflation as a weapon, as well as the broader geopolitical dynamics and their market impacts. Go to the 'highlights' menu; I've collected it all for you there. Read my Substack, where I've published plenty of free posts on these topics. A crisis is coming. And it's going to be massive... $SPX is topping sooner than you think... but not now...
















