Mitch

@SenSanders Deranged old man

Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya ran one of Gaza's last hospitals. He refused to leave his patients even after Israel killed his own son in a drone strike. Israel kidnapped him for it. 18 months in detention, tortured and beaten, for the crime of running a hospital. He must be released.

@QCompounding Never heard of?😂dude is the goat of goats

The best investor you never heard of Stanley Druckenmiller averaged a return of 30% for 30 years Here's his incredible story:

@michaelsikand Let them guide to $1.1 billion guidance this year first…only $340mm give or take H1… risks are tantamount. 30% margins on hardware manufacturing as they religiously expand capex with recent/ongoing dilution

$AAOI is down over 40% in a month. On no information that suggests the company's ramp to $400M+ in monthly revenue isn't on track for 2027. The market might point to dilution, insider selling, margins rolling over. But let's look at what really matters. Gross profit up 44% YoY in dollars $449M cash, nearly DOUBLE where it started the year The $200M+ 1.6T order is still shipping $124M in 800G still on track C Customers didn't leave The P/E everyone quotes is the wrong tool. 70% of 2026 revenue lands in H2 after new capacity comes online. Blend in two pre-ramp quarters and the multiple looks twice as expensive as it is on a run rate basis. At $115, we get to 12.8x forward. $COHR and $LITE trade near 48x on SLOWER growth. $NVDA just dropped $2B each into $COHR and $LITE. Both order books are now spoken for. Coherent, Lumentum, Broadcom, Sumitomo. All sold out on lasers. $AAOI is the only vertically integrated US laser manufacturer with capacity left to take new customers. We went deeper. Job listings. A shipping record from June 27th. A patent nobody's written about. What we found looks a lot less like a transceiver assembler and a lot more like a dark factory laser foundry hiding in plain sight. And now the same asymmetric thesis is 40% cheaper. Full breakdown on Substack.

@memyselfn_I_ @_Ric_Ya @doomernat22 @IfindRetards

@_MHequities @_Ric_Ya @doomernat22 @IfindRetards gay ass

imagine being such an unpopular country you have to make AI edits of real life events for your own propaganda

@investsora @TheWiseAdapter Of course my bad if I initially insulted you lol

@_MHequities @TheWiseAdapter definitely worth hearing you out on this, thank you

$SIVE is now -62% from its highs 12 working days ago. I believe most people DCA'd upwards & are in massive losses now. DMs are still open for apologies 🫨 My FUD was in fact not FUD. Still not even one decent deal announced 🥵

And again, insider shares to the tune of 1 billion SEK (nearly 10% of outstanding shares) unlock July 16 from an earlier capital raise. There is a 30 day “quiet period” in Sweden barring insider sales a month before earnings releases. Their August earnings will likely be just as bad as the previous on a realistic basis. The fact that management felt compelled to move their earnings date from August 6 to August 27 is simply not a good look. Not at all. I can’t think of any other reason aside from opening a July 16-27 window to dump those shares before that earnings call. I’m simply pointing out material risks here, just don’t full port this thing; allocate a small position if you must

While AAOI’s primary business is building traditional pluggable optical transceivers, they also develop foundational high-power lasers and external laser sources for CPO architectures. So they’re bridging the gap today while also prepping for what comes next. CPO is a 2028/29 story at best. But the point is having a fundamental basis to justify a stock price today. Whether on a visible discounted cash flow basis or just material revenue/backlog growth TODAY. AAOI has explosive revenue growth actually materializing, on top of a surging **backlog**, whereas Sivers is baiting retail with a merely subjective **opportunity pipeline**, with zero photonics revenue today, let alone even a backlog to show for anything. Just non-exclusive partnerships on reference designs that they hope will be used by 2028. And pricing power will be fully at the discretion of WIN Semi, who they outsource designs to, further eroding potential margins should anything even manifest. I mean hey, this thing could surely pump again, but the risks are IMMENSE and it will only run on hype, which is intrinsically fizzling out (especially with all this dilution and some serious macro risks on the horizon/liquidity tightening). I suspect some funky business going on with their management, and I’m merely trying to make people aware not to blindly follow anonymous pump pages ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ue…

@investsora @TheWiseAdapter Read my other reply

@_MHequities @TheWiseAdapter i’m pretty sure sive is also in qualification phase with their lasers my point is, if u can hear me out, that $SIVE is not a shit stock, just a extremely speculative one, almost like a lottery ticket

@investsora @TheWiseAdapter Also **higher beta

@_MHequities @TheWiseAdapter i do want to note, the macro has pushed lower beta stocks near the same %, though not the same exactly $AAOI is a example

@investsora @TheWiseAdapter It was overbought so it corrected is all. The move to $100 was at least well deserved

@investsora @TheWiseAdapter You’re comparing a stock that just exploded with over 50% revenue growth, actual materialized backlog, and actual forward guidance to Sivers? Really?

@investsora @TheWiseAdapter I am not. Their own subjective pipeline does not accommodate your viewpoint. And it is already priced in. On a hope. No backlog

@_MHequities @TheWiseAdapter i think it would be bigger than u think, 70m in equity is, for me more bullish than bearish i think you’re underestimating how large ai hyper scaling COULD be and how little laser suppliers there are

Well I took your initial reply as an insult in and of itself. My apologies. I was in from 4 all the way to 40’s-50’s. The risk profile now is notably different. I highlighted real risks, the macro hasn’t pushed everything down over 60% like SIVE. Constant dilution and everything else mentioned will do that. And again, macro liquidity is presently tightening and will extend as such in the interim period. There are much better plays than investing in a constantly dilutive micro cap still up 1000% this year with a mere hope of churning out revenue by 2028 (even if these partnerships materialize it will be much lower margin than you hope for) running solely on twitter pumps. You really should be wary of insider lockups hitting July 16 on top of the ongoing dilution. The speculative basis you invoke is what you really want to avoid in these macro conditions anyhow.

@_MHequities @TheWiseAdapter no need to insult me, i’d bet a lot of money it’s the macro moving $SIVE and not what you think, is bad fundamentals i think you’re looking at a VERY speculative stock in a VERY objective way which is not how u should look at a stock like $SIVE

@investsora @TheWiseAdapter I’m sorry you don’t understand

@_MHequities @TheWiseAdapter i think half of the things u said were just as speculative as the stock itself man

Nonetheless, incrementally raising rates 25 basis points (which is expected, not a surprise, and actively encouraged by Bessent in order to **hopefully** preclude a full blown crash) at a time may adequately ease the potential unwinding magnitude. Regardless, there is no real way to pinpoint how markets will ultimately respond or how all the moving pieces will fall into place. Hence, holding at least a 20% cash threshold is simply the safest course of action until some clarity manifests.

Repost: My opinion/prediction going forward, which may be incredibly hopeful (at least going into 2027) to say the least (while bearish in the interim period): The yen carry trade is not fully obsolete as everyone is spamming on this platform (still several hundred basis points of breathing room to accommodate). The FED cannot afford prolonged positive real interest rates in our current debt environment (debt maturity wall materializing on trillions that need be refinanced into next year; debt to GDP ratio peaking at 120-130%, etc; financial repression is the ultimate mainstay). I can see a situation whereby, (1) BOJ incrementally raises rates another 25 basis points, (2) markets continue to crash into summer in anticipation of FED rate hikes and in the aftermath of further carry trade margin calls, (3) Warsh removed all forward guidance upon stepping in, he will react to markets rather than vice versa (The Fed literally cannot afford to make promises. If they commit to hiking to kill inflation, the bond market revolts due to perceived insolvency risks at a time where foreign banks/governments are already offloading US treasuries; if they commit to cutting to “save the economy”, the dollar and inflation break out of control prematurely), and (4) if energy inflation reclaims stability, CPI comes in sub 3%, and natural bond market yields appear to stabilize (They desperately need a “controlled landing” that keeps domestic liquidity functional without causing a bond market revolt), there may just be a surprise 25 basis point cut just in time for midterms. A massive equity flush changes the entire narrative overnight. It allows Warsh to step in, point at systemic financial instability, and deliver the cut as an emergency liquidity rescue rather than a political favor. (and again, still a couple hundred basis points of room to accommodate the carry trade, and this may be forced to happen regardless in the event of a carry trade based equity crash going into midterms). This would surely be followed with prolonged maintenance into 2027. I can imagine this is what Bessent is going for, as he works in tandem with the BOJ, but all pieces have to fall perfectly into place. The biggest threat to this take is the ongoing threat with Iran and coinciding Hormuz closure. If this war prolongs and oil skyrockets, they will likely at best be forced to again maintain rates. Regardless, the next couple months, as I keep reiterating, will likely be ugly, choppy at best. The FED has the hardest job in the world right now, and we are truly at the behest of prospectively unknown market forces. I will continue retaining a good size in cash, outside of my favorite names with upcoming catalysts.

@GoodVsEvil07 @RemiReliefX Totally not contradictory

@RemiReliefX When the reverse carry trade happens, he’ll raise interest rates and turn on the money printer machine into the Trillions… Just like 2008 or worse..

🚨I’m waiting for an emergency rate cut by Kevin Warsh🚨

$RELL is looking real nice. I doubt they blowout this earnings report, but 2027-28 guidance remains intact, and it is truly one of the safer long term bets in the micro cap space.

@avshushka @Million_Sancet Please tell me more about what I’m not comprehending. By all means do elaborate!🤔

@_MHequities @Million_Sancet You guys still can’t comprehend that by the time there are fundamental reasons to value a company at a certain level it’s already priced in. Otherwise accounts and bookkeepers would be the best investors out there.

Let me break it down for you, my friend, it's very simple Do you know why it has been so abrupt and silent? Because they caused it, because for the first time in history, retail investors got ahead of the institutions And they are furious That's why they have "collapsed" the market using nothing but reports and phrases taken out of context, or literal lies, just to tank it They are breaking a narrative that remains completely intact and is improving at a breakneck pace Now, why is it the most silent one? Because it doesn't suit them to talk about it They are loading up like crazy while retail sells like crazy because "it's the end” It’s been seen in many names, I'll give you $SIVE as an example The transfer from Swedish Retail -> US Retail is wrapping up And coincidentally, we start seeing the first buys from institutions like JP Morgan What happened just a few days later? $SIVE drops 65% Weird, isn't it? and nobody is talking about it, wonder why? They want your shares, and they are getting them Don't be surprised if for the rest of the month all you see are bullish articles reinforcing AI narratives, from memory to photonics and everything in between And obviously, their multi million dollar positions in all these names will come to light Don't have a single doubt about it