Mark Peat

Im not saying prices cant come down more, absolutely not. But down 20-50% i highly doubt it. Anything more than -10% you should be buying with both hands IMO

No 2008-style bubble here. Builder costs tied to commodities track historical averages; Lennar reports direct construction costs down 2.5% QoQ & 12% over 2 years in Q1 2026. No overbuilding frenzy—just efficiency gains despite labor pressures. Builder fundamentals hold strong. 🧵

@martypartymusic 🫶🏻

@_markpeat Do you have a post I’ll repost it - break this down 💪

Worlds largest assets by Market Value Note: Real estate bubble 🖨️

AI cant build you a house just yet. 🤘🏼 CC. @martypartymusic

Rates—not prices—are killing the market. A $50K price bump adds $300/mo. A 2% rate jump adds $600+ and $200K+ over time. Buyers don’t live in prices, they live in payments. Rates crush affordability and freeze demand. Commercial cap rates are closer to a bottom too.

If rates ease or prices dip modestly, that floodgate opens—huge wave of sidelined buyers (avg age now 40!) rushes in. No oversupply crash like '08; tight supply + strong demographics + steady builder costs = resilient market. Not a bubble, a bottleneck.

Pent-up demand is enormous. First-time buyer age at record high: NAR 2025 data shows median 40 (all-time peak, up from ~30s historically). Millions delayed by affordability/rates. Population growth (though slowing) + millennial/Gen Z backlog = buyers waiting for relief.

High rates are the real villain, jacking monthly payments & freezing the market. Sales at historic lows, but not from overvaluation—strict lending, high equity, low delinquencies (~4%) shield against crashes. Inventory tight (3-4 months vs. 13+ in '08). Supply shortage persists

Builder margins? Stable/normal range historically (pre-boom ~15-20%). Lennar Q1 2026 gross margin on home sales: 15.2% (down from 18.7% YoY due to incentives/land, but offset by cost cuts). Q2 guidance: 15.5-16%. Not collapsing—trade-offs for volume in high-rate world

@SecScottBessent You must think the general population has brain damage. 🤦🏼‍♂️ so much winning…. 🤮

Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and through President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, we are winning this critical fight at an even faster pace than anticipated. In response to Iran’s terrorist attacks against global energy infrastructure, the Trump Administration will continue to deploy America’s economic and military might to maximize the flow of energy to the world, strengthen global supply, and seek to ensure market stability. Today, the Department of the Treasury is issuing a narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea. At present, sanctioned Iranian oil is being hoarded by China on the cheap. By temporarily unlocking this existing supply for the world, the United States will quickly bring approximately 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, expanding the amount of worldwide energy and helping to relieve the temporary pressures on supply caused by Iran. In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down as we continue Operation Epic Fury. This temporary, short-term authorization is strictly limited to oil that is already in transit and does not allow new purchases or production. Further, Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated and the United States will continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and its ability to access the international financial system. So far, the Trump Administration has been working to bring around 440 million additional barrels of oil to the global market, undercutting Iran’s ability to leverage its disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump’s pro-energy agenda has driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels, strengthening energy security and lowering fuel costs. Any short-term disruption now will ultimately translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans – because there is no prosperity without security.

@aakashgupta A lil mis guided on the developer incentives, that said mature trees cause tens of thousands in damage to foundations over the lifetime of the home. They dont trench fill like EU or UK. Slab, crawlspace, basement, pier and beam all get fked near mature trees within a decade or so

Let me explain exactly why every new subdivision in America looks like the top photo, because the math is wild. A mature tree increases a home's value by 7 to 19 percent. On a $400,000 house, that's $28,000 to $76,000. A single shade tree produces the cooling equivalent of ten room-size air conditioners running 20 hours a day. One tree on the west side of a house cuts energy bills by 12 percent within 15 years. The bottom photo is worth more, costs less to live in, and sells faster. This has been documented by the University of Washington, Clemson, Michigan State, and the USDA. The data is not in dispute. Removing those trees saves the builder roughly $5,000 per lot. Concrete trucks need twice the dripline radius of every standing tree. Utility trenches need flat ground. A bulldozer flattens 200 lots in an afternoon. Preserving trees adds weeks and thousands per home. So the developer pockets $5,000 in savings and the buyer eats $50,000 in lost value for the next two decades. The person making the decision and the person paying for it have never been in the same room. The Woodlands, Texas is the proof of what happens when they are. George Mitchell bought 28,000 acres of Houston timberland in 1974 and preserved 28% as permanent green space. He forced McDonald's to build behind the tree canopy. That McDonald's became one of the highest-volume locations in Texas. The first office building, designed to reflect the surrounding forest so you couldn't see it from the street, leased completely. The Woodlands median home price today: $615,000. Katy, a comparable Houston suburb that clear-cut: $375,000. Named #1 community to live in America two years running. Fifty years of data. The trees are worth more than removing them saves. Developers clear-cut anyway because they sell the house once and leave. You live in it for 30 years.

@nickgerli1 Boots on the ground vibe would suggest the contrary, this is pent up demand and the monthly payment is the issue as to why people can’t qualify for the home they want. So they sit on the sidelines. $50k price hike on a house has minimal impact on a monthly payment. The rate does

The thing everyone gets wrong in the housing market is they think it's about mortgage rates. When it's actually about prices. Buyer demand is at record lows because prices (inflation-adjusted) are at record highs. No one wants to buy a house they know it will be worth less in 3-4 years. Meanwhile, mortgage rates around 6% is abundantly normal for the U.S. going back 100+ years. That's why movements in mortgage rates (either up or down) aren't having any material impact on sales right now. Meanwhile, if you manage to bring prices down meaningfully, the buyers will flood back.

Absolute BS. Q1 hasn’t even finished yet… this guy thinks he has the alpha. Real vision sub’ by chance? It takes 2 seconds to check LINK BS, NEAR BS, FET BS. @DamiDefi is a bot or a pretender 🤣

@TrumpDailyPosts Israel!!

What is the largest threat to America?

@epsteinsearchin @FBIDirectorKash is as corrupt as they come

Ted Lieu asked Kash Patel if photos of Trump with "girls of uncertain age" exist in the Epstein files. Patel said no. Lieu: "How do you know? No one knew about the birthday message until the WSJ disclosed it."

@kgkarthik924 @Investanswers

$NEAR quietly sitting among the top blockchains by monthly active users. Adoption speaks louder than narratives.

@btc_charlie You’re a dumb cunt if you think Bitcoin can win in a world of programmable smart money.

You're a dumb cunt if you think crypto isn't over for anything but Bitcoin.

Trump’s Iran War is shaping up to be a total catastrophe, not to mention a fundamental betrayal of his own movement’s principles and voters. Meanwhile JD Vance is in hiding, trying to salvage his chances in 2028 by quietly distancing himself from the war. Absolutely pathetic.

@pdoherty972 @EricSpracklen Took the words out of my mouth. The cost to build a home has been consistent with house prices its wages and incomes that haven’t gone up. There’s less and less opportunity and high paying jobs are being disrupted at an insane rate. Price isnt as important as the monthly payment

@EricSpracklen So, you think houses should have been completely immune to inflation since 2018? How does that work, where everything that goes into making a house goes up in cost but the house prices remain the same?

That’s because houses are 30-50% overpriced across the board. Maybe even worse in some places. It’s going to crash and it’s going to crash hard. Anyone that rushed to buy in the last 5 or so years is going to get crushed.