Andrew Bellinger

This was neat: Researchers traced a tariff on $5 European wines into the U.S. to see who paid it. The tariff itself was $1.19, producers paid $0.26 and importers took a $0.44 cut, but retailers used the tariff as an excuse to add a $1.10 margin. The price went up $1.59 (~32%):

@LindseyGrahamSC @POTUS Mistreating and threatening allies does not make for good alliances. You have contributed to the destruction of Americans reputation, and now you act like it is our former allies fault?

Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake. The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure. The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America. I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario. 1. The U.S. and Israel may have produced regime transition in the worst possible way. Ali Khamenei was 86 and had survived multiple bouts of prostate cancer. His death in the coming years would likely have triggered a real internal reckoning in Iran, potentially opening the door to somewhat more pragmatic leadership, especially after the protests and crackdown last month. Instead, the regime made its most consequential decision under existential external threat giving the hardliners a clear upperhand. Now we appear to have a successor who is 30 years younger, deeply tied to the IRGC, and radicalized by the war itself – including the killing of family members. Disastrous. 2. About seven years ago at CNAS, I helped convene a group of security, energy, and economic experts to walk through scenarios for a U.S.--Iran war and the implications for global oil prices. What we’re seeing now was considered one of the least likely but worst outcomes. The modeling assumed the Strait of Hormuz could close for 4–10 weeks, with 1–3 years required to restore oil production once you factored in infrastructure damage. Prices could spike from around $65 to $175–$200 per barrel, before eventually settling in the $80–$100 range a year later in a new normal. 3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus. 4. The U.S. now finds itself in the naval and air equivalent of the dynamic we faced in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s a recipe for a quagmire where we win every battle and lose the war. We have overwhelming military dominance and are exacting a tremendous cost. But Iran doesn’t need to win battles. They just need occasional successes. A small boat hitting a tanker. A drone slipping through defenses in the Gulf. A strike on a hotel or oil facility. Each incident creates insecurity and drives costs up while remind everyone that the regime is surviving and fighting. 5. The deeper problem is that U.S. objectives were set far too high. Once “regime change” becomes the implicit or explicit goal, the bar for American success becomes enormous. Iran’s bar is simple: survive and keep causing disruption. 6. The options for ending this war now are all bad. You can try to secure the entire Gulf and Middle East indefinitely – extremely expensive and maybe impossible. You can invade Iran and replace the regime, but nobody is seriously going to do that. Costs are astronomical. You can try to destabilize the regime by supporting separatist groups. It probably won’t work and if it does you’ll most likely spark a civil war producing years of bloody chaos the U.S. will get blamed for. None of these are good outcomes. 7. The other escalatory options being discussed are taking the nuclear material out of Esfahan or taking Kargh Island. Esfahan is not really workable. Huge risk. You’d have been on the ground for a LONG time to safely dig in and get the nuclear material out in the middle of the country giving Iran time to reinforce from all over and over run the American position. 8. Kharg Island can be appealing to Trump. He’d love to take Iran’s ability to export oil off the map and try to coerce them to end the war. It’s much easier because it’s not in the middle of IRan. But it’s still a potentially costly ground operation. And again. Again, the Iranian government only has to survive to win and they can probably do that even without Kargh. 9. The least bad option is the classic diplomatic off-ramp. The U.S. declares that Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly degraded, which is how the Pentagon always saw the purpose of the war. Iran declares victory for surviving and demonstrating it can still threaten regional actors. It would feel unsatisfying. But this is the inevitable outcome anyway. Better to stop now than after five or ten more years of escalating costs. Remember in Afghanistan we turned down a deal very early in the war with the Taliban that looked amazing 20 years later. Don’t need to repeat that kind of mistake. 10. The U.S. and Israel are not perfectly aligned here. Trump just needs a limited win and would see long-term instability as a negative whereas for Netanyahu a weak unstable Iran that bogs the U.S. down in the MIddle East is a fine outcome. If President Trump decided he wanted Israel to stop, he likely has the leverage to push it in that direction just as he pressured Netanyahu to take a deal last fall on Gaza. 11. When this is over, the Gulf states will have to rethink their entire security strategy. They are stuck in the absolute worst place. They didn’t start this war and didn’t want it and now they are taking with some of the worst consequences. Neither doubling down with the U.S. and Israel nor placating the Iranians seems overwhelmingly appealing. 12. One clear geopolitical winner so far: Russia. Oil prices are rising. Sanctions are coming off. Western attention and military resources are shifting away from Ukraine. From Moscow’s perspective, this war is a win win win. 13. At some point China may have a role to play here. It is the world’s largest oil importer, and much of that supply comes from the Middle East. Yes they are still getting oil from Iran. But they also buy from the rest of the Middle East, and a prolonged disruption in the Gulf hits Beijing hard. That gives China a real incentive to help push toward an end to the conflict.

You pray for the hungry. Then you feed them. This is how prayer works. — Pope Francis

This is an important initiative by @US_FDA @DrMakaryFDA to increase our global competitiveness and maintain U.S. leadership in biotech! 👏👏👏

Conan O'Brien says he has "incredible empathy for people who have immigrated to another country" after traveling to Ireland and seeing his great-grandfather lived. "I went back to Ireland and I [saw] a great genealogist who said, 'I found where your great-grandfather’s home was.' The home is gone, but he found the little spot where he lived, near the Galbally Mountains. He said, 'I’ll go there and show it to you,' and I said, 'We’ll do it on camera.' "I was expecting to have these jokes loaded up; we had props and funny things we were going to do... But I got there, and I did not expect this because I'm not someone who wears my emotions on my sleeve, but I got emotional. It was very powerful. "This was a very small plot of land. He was a tenant farmer, so it wasn't his. He didn't have money, and he needed to move on because it wasn't working; probably not enough to eat, couldn't sustain. So, he left and went to America, and here I am a couple of generations later. "What's amazing to me is when you have that experience and you stand there, I have incredible empathy for people who have immigrated to another country. It takes an entire lifetime to go to a country where, often, people don't speak the language. They have to spend their entire lives just getting things started for the next generation; it's a whole lifetime that you're feeding into this process. "I was just thinking about this guy, whom I'll never meet, who had to do that. I think I was overcome by the fact that there's a lot of sadness in that story, and in a lot of these stories. People leave not because they think, 'Hey, I just want to go have fun in America.' They leave because they have to." (via Jimmy Kimmel Live)

NEW: An NBC poll finds Pope Leo XIV and Stephen Colbert are the most popular figures in American public life. Donald Trump, JD Vance, both parties, ICE, and AI are underwater. A Catholic pope from Chicago is the most trusted man in the country. Govern accordingly. thelettersfromleo.com/p/pope-leo-xiv…

@AriFleischer He spoke about racism, bigotry, corruption, and leaders dividing us. If that feels like an attack on your party and your values then you should look in the mirror Ari. What have you become? GWB did NOT lead with those values.

If you want to know why Donald Trump was elected, watch Barack Obama’s attack speech yesterday at Jesse Jackson’s funeral. As he did throughout his presidency, he created a straw man to describe Republicans as bigots who force the American people to “turn on each other”. He said similar crap when he was President and the GOP was the party of Bush, McCain and Romney. It’s the language of bitterness and resentment that makes good people recoil to be described that way. Obama is one of the most divisive figures in US history, except he is celebrated by the MSM because they are partisans. They take sides and loved and protected Obama. It’s no wonder a tough, no BS, bull in the China shop emerged. That person was a fed up Trump, who broke the MSM by not caring what they thought. He showed Rs they could punch back against the Ds and win. His rise coincided with the welcome birth, at long last, of conservative media which gave voice to the voiceless who had been forced to consume the prejudices of the MSM. I can’t stand Obama. He was weak, patronizing, condescending and he put America last. But having listened to him yesterday, I reminded the only good thing he did was help elect President Trump.

Reverend Jesse Jackson called on each of us to be heralds of change, to be messengers of hope; to step forward and say “Send me” wherever we have a chance to make an impact. How fortunate we were that Jesse Jackson answered that call. What a great debt we owe to him.

@BarackObama "I am somebody!" - Historical footage of Rev. Jesse Jackson leading a crowd in a chant of solidarity.

President Obama at the Jackson service: "We are living in a time when it can be hard to hope. Each day, we wake up to some new assault on our democratic institutions. Another setback to the idea of the rule of law. An offense to common decency. Every day you wake up to things you just didn't think were possible. Each day we're told by those in high office to fear each other and to turn on each other and that some Americans count more than others. And that some don't even count at all. Everywhere, we see greed and bigotry being celebrated, and bullying and mockery masquerading as strength." … "If we don't step up, no one else will. How fortunate we were that Jesse Jackson answered that call. What a great debt we owe to him."

Trump’s second-term pardons are historic in their enormity—billions in fines erased, allies protected, donors rewarded, DOJ undermined, and election norms threatened. Corruption looks less like an exception and more like the rule, says Cato’s Dan Greenberg. ow.ly/PiYw50YqcO0

“Just as the Roman empire survived for two more centuries after it started to decline, the United States isn’t in danger of imminent collapse. But Trump’s rejection of planning, expertise, and diplomacy is beginning to have real-world consequences” theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/…

I was part of 3-person CNN team that went with the Marines into Beirut to evacuate thousands of US civilians as bombing was underway. US embassy folks remained on duty and even went around town to pick folks up. Heavily armed Helo teams and Navy Seal boats provided us protection. NOBODY deserted American civilians. We all slept on the deck of a US warship overnight sailing to Cyprus with anti missile ship right alongside. All evacs are different except for one thing: They REQUIRE planning and the embassy is the last to go. Not what is happening now.

✔️ Best State for Women ✔️ Best State for Working Moms ✔️ Best State to Have a Baby Happy Women’s History Month, Massachusetts.

Trump promised that new factories and jobs would pour into the US, but spending on manufacturing-related construction actually decreased last year (after booming under Biden). My @Morning_Joe Chart

The Grail test (Galleri) appears to have a statistically significant drop of around 20% in metastatic disease in the most deadly cancers, while missing its primary endpoint. For some perspective, if that translates to survival, that could likely be as impactful than all the new cancer therapies of the last 15 years. Combined. I will still get mine every 6 months. The power of early detection is huge, and this is nascent. ARCH has an economic interest in the royalty, but my mom, dad, and all my grandparents had cancer, as did I. In advance, I will tell those who question my motives to go f$&k themselves now, so I don’t have to respond individually.

My dad loves the Blizzard of ‘78. My entire life I’ve heard about it as a point of comparison for any snowstorm. It’s his GOAT. Today he’s been reacting to everything about this storm like Michael Jordan fans do when people talk about LeBron.

👀The federal judges in West Virginia, where ICE has been pulling over and detaining people on the freeway, are literally screaming about ICE's tactics. "It is an assault on the constitutional order," Judge Goodwin says. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…

The history books quietly bypassed is that Barack Obama, during the most pressure-saturated nights of his presidency, would retreat alone to the Treaty Room on the second floor of the White House residence — not to strategize, not to take calls, but to handwrite personal letters to ten ordinary American citizens every single night, a practice he maintained with almost monastic devotion across all eight years, selecting the letters himself from the 40,000 that arrived daily at the White House, and his longtime correspondence director Fiona Reese confirmed that Obama would often weep privately while reading certain letters, folding them carefully before writing responses so personally detailed and emotionally present that recipients frequently described the experience of receiving them as the most significant moment of their lives, with one Ohio steelworker writing back to say that Obama's letter had physically stopped him from making a decision that would have permanently altered his family's future. What makes this practice almost unbearably moving is the detail that surfaced later — Obama never used a computer for these letters, always a black felt-tip pen, always legal yellow paper first as a draft, always rewritten onto White House stationery by hand a second time, because he believed, as he told historian Doris Kearns Goodwin in a rare private conversation later recounted in her 2018 work, that the physical act of pressing pen to paper forced a quality of attention that typing simply could not replicate, a philosophy rooted in his years as a constitutional law professor at the University of Chicago from 1992 to 2004 where he developed the conviction that democracy only functions when its leaders remain genuinely, uncomfortably close to the specific gravity of individual human suffering rather than processing it from behind the insulating distance of institutions and screens."