Ape

I’ve maintained this idea for years that Bitcoin will go through a prolonged re-accumulation phase, holding higher prices above 50k–60k for years without breaking out to major targets like 300k–500k or higher. Instead, we’ll see alternating one-year bull and bear markets until institutions, pension funds, ETFs, and others accumulate enough Bitcoin to push it into the next era. Since Bitcoin is considered a store of value like gold, but it’s also software with superior utility — it moves instantly over the internet and is accessible to all retail investors so the re-accumulation period should be roughly half as long as gold’s. While gold needed 8+ years, Bitcoin could complete this phase in 3–4 years. During that time, other tech cryptocurrencies will likely outperform Bitcoin to catch up. This is one of the biggest reasons I lean more toward ETH and maybe a few select altcoins in the years ahead rather than Bitcoin. You don’t want to be caught holding mostly Bitcoin if it stays relatively flat while others deliver strong gains. So make sure to stay diversified, especially in times like these where traditional cycles aren’t playing out the same way anymore. Besides that, I barely make fractals, but here’s the one and only scenario that might actually play out. As you already know, there are two sides to the story: the 2022 fractal (bear market) and the early 2023 fractal (when the bull market began). In reality, it will be a combination of both. We won’t purely follow the 2022 fractal and the bottom is already in. From here, we’ll revisit the ATH either making a shallow new ATH or a small blow-off top into my previous main targets of 160k to the 1.618 extension at around 173k. Then, as the 2023 fractal people scream that "this is just the beginning" we’ll instead drop again following the 2022 fractal back down into the 50k range. Once that happens, the real 2023 fractal will begin. Do you see the game? It’s ahead of what everyone is screaming about right now. In the meantime, ETFs and institutions will keep re-accumulating enough Bitcoin over the next 3–4 years to eventually push it toward 700k and higher. This plan also incorporates a macro divergence: while Bitcoin (as a store of value) moves sideways or retraces, other tech assets will start to outperform. This means that for ETH and some altcoins, the bottom is already in and by the time Bitcoin revisits the 50k zone later this year or early next year, there’s a strong chance ETH and the rest won’t make new lows while Bitcoin does. We’re already seeing this pattern now as ETH did not break below its April 2025 lows while Bitcoin did, so expect the same story to repeat when Bitcoin reaches the 50s again, ETH might hold around 3k (or higher), and by the time the 2023 fractal starts to kick in for BTC, ETH can start the run to 10k–14k or more as Bitcoin only moves from the 50s back up to its previous ATH. This is the era of divergence we’re entering — continued outperformance of other assets versus Bitcoin in the mid/long term.

The consolidation $ETH is experiencing now is nearly double that of the 2019-2020 period. Not only is the duration almost exactly double, but if you overlay the 2019-2020 fractal starting from 2023 onward, the price action is strikingly similar.

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