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@aree036

My posts = just notes for myself

เข้าร่วม Ocak 2015
556 กำลังติดตาม103 ผู้ติดตาม
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...@aree036·
@fit_businessman But more impertinently the US doesn’t want it open. I’d say that is the most important thing to remember. US want to make out that they are pushing for it to open, but in reality they want max pain on international system as it gives more geopolitical strength.
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Michael
Michael@fit_businessman·
$SPY What has market factored in Iran negotiations?? -Ceasefire extension -Strait fully opened Anything less triggers sell off. How do we rip higher? War ends and strait fully open. Strait most important topic. Unfortunately it’s unlikely as Iran knows they hold the world’s economic kryptonite. Smart money is quietly buying puts as we wait for more details of negotiations tomorrow. Watch vol control buyers into close. If market is able to contain price from going green it’s a loss for bulls. Strong support from VCF buying today.
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...@aree036·
In other words the US doesn't just not care about the strain on the international system, they want this strain.
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...@aree036·
Easy to get distracted by news and narratives. The US's ultimate aim is to increase geopolitical might/leverage (i.e. create pain for other economies - especially China). Meaning theyre happy to keep the straight closed for an extended period. All makes sense through this lens
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...@aree036·
@lord_fed Good to know I got in lower than Burry
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Fed
Fed@lord_fed·
Only Michael Burry would get long software and buy the one name with no USP (PYPL) and ADBE which needs to buy figma or canva to go anywhere…
Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟@burrytracker

Michael Burry just called the bottom on software stocks He opened a new 3.5% position in PayPal $PYPL at $49.38 yesterday And is adding Salesforce $CRM and MSCI $MSCI this morning, per his Substack His recent purchases: • PayPal $PYPL • Fiserv $FISV • Adobe $ADBE • Autodesk $ADSK • Veeva $VEEV

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...@aree036·
Iran is old news now. It’s in the past, the market is priced on the future. The future is rosy. All time highs rosey. If you aren’t all in you’re late to the party, you missed the dip. 👆feels like we are approaching this sentiment. Might be a good time to take some profits.
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...@aree036·
@FinanceLancelot This is basically true. But do markets/price care?
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Financelot
Financelot@FinanceLancelot·
So basically Trump asked Pakistan to ask Trump for a 2 week ceasefire, and Trump agreed to a ceasefire without Iran, US or Israel actually cease firing. Then Trump claimed Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz without Iran actually opening the Strait of Hormuz. Do I have this right?
Financelot tweet media
Financelot@FinanceLancelot

That's one ginormous TACO candlestick! It puts March 2025 to shame. There's a peace deal until Friday April 10th then bombs away🤫

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Mark Slapinski
Mark Slapinski@mark_slapinski·
I'm genuinely confused What the fuck was the point of the Iran war?
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...@aree036·
@David_Tracey Shocks me that anyone still pays attention to the deadlines but markets clearly do
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Godzilla Trader 🦖
Godzilla Trader 🦖@David_Tracey·
Does anyone seriously think Trump won’t postpone the deadline? Last April was the same playbook.
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Hedgeye
Hedgeye@Hedgeye·
BREAKING: Dated Brent (physical oil) prices hit $144.46/bbl, a new all-time high.
Hedgeye tweet media
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...@aree036·
@Julietrhem @KobeissiLetter That this deadline was a farce to begin with like all the deadlines before it. Using promise of end of war as a mechanism to keep markets optimistic and therefore stop them from plummeting
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases all losses and turns green on the day as Pakistan asks President Trump to extend his 8 PM deadline by 2 weeks. Both sides have said they are reviewing the proposal.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Karol Kozicki
Karol Kozicki@k2__investment·
@KobeissiLetter That could be a catalyst: A senior Iranian official, per Axios, says Tehran is positively reviewing Pakistan's request for a two-week ceasefire.
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...@aree036·
@_brendanarvaez @KobeissiLetter I think the reaction should flip negative. All that has happened is the US has just pushed out the timeline for 2 more weeks of war, lack of oil and uncertainty.
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Brenda ☀️
Brenda ☀️@_brendanarvaez·
The S&P 500 flips GREEN as Pakistan requests Donald Trump to extend the Iran deadline by 2 weeks. Market read-through: 📈 De-escalation hopes = risk-on rally 🛢️ Oil pressure easing → equities bid 🧠 Positioning unwind: Shorts getting squeezed Key insight: This isn’t fundamentals—it’s geopolitical risk premium repricing. What’s next: Markets will trade headline-to-headline until clarity.
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...@aree036·
@KobeissiLetter “Pakistan” asks. What’s the next excuse going to be?
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...@aree036·
Interesting take
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle

This is my take on $SPX: Everybody KNOWS the market will explode higher once the Iran conflict is over. Everyone KNOWS it is the MO of the current administration to create urgency/volatility and then dial it back through negotiation which generally lifts $SPX off its lows to strong new highs. Everyone KNOWS that earnings will be strong and stocks should react positively. Everyone KNOWS that the seasonality between now and mid-July is strongly bullish. I agree with all of these points and also believe $SPX SHOULD explode higher. That being the case, why isn't the market ALREADY exploding higher in anticipation of what everyone KNOWS is coming. $SPX has been below the 200-day SMA for 13 straight days. In the past 20 years, we've never been below it for this long without eventually staying below for an average of 100 days and falling an average of 15% below it.

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...@aree036·
@9400BCE @GlobeEyeNews How do you reach this view? Please spend a year road tripping Europe. I have traveled both Europe and US and can tell you that Europe is light years ahead of US as a place to live in with far more educated, worldly and cultured people. Very little to no sign of Muslim influence.
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The Architect
The Architect@9400BCE·
Yup the decoupling is going to happen. We just don't fundamentally have anything in common with Europe anymore. Europe is an authoritarian socialist block that will most likely become majority Muslim by the end of the century. And we all know Islam doesn't have to be a majority to project an immense amount of political power within a country. Threatening to murder people tends to have a chilling effect on the opposition
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Globe Eye News
Globe Eye News@GlobeEyeNews·
BREAKING: France sold its gold stored in New York and purchased an equivalent amount in Europe. All of France’s gold reserves are now located in Paris.
Globe Eye News tweet mediaGlobe Eye News tweet media
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...@aree036·
@EricLDaugh Do you not understand the purpose of NATO? It’s not a group of countries that gang up to attack other countries when one member wants something. It’s specifically for DEFENDING nations that are invaded.
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Eric Daugherty
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh·
🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: Spain BANNED the US Air Force refueling tankers involved in the Iran war from flying through Spain airspace Spain is a NATO "ally" What a freaking disgrace. Pull out of NATO!
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Say No To Trading
Say No To Trading@SayNoToTrading·
A year to two ago, Hammond Power Solutions $HMDPF $HPS.A $HPSA.TO was very favored stock on Seeking Alpha. Really the only North American pure play transformer manufacturer. As price plummets these past few months, no one wants to talk about it. Stock has taken beating with data center buildout weakness + Trump tariff fears since they're Canadian. I'm just not feeling it yet but have always liked the company as a Carrington Event insurance policy. Price would move inversely to $AMZN $GOOG $QQQ and certainly all smaller tech in any intense geomagnetic storm. I do not own, just on watchlist.
Say No To Trading tweet mediaSay No To Trading tweet media
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...@aree036·
@JeremyDBoreing I don’t think that’s the point. Imagine you are one of those millions civilians, with a family, that has seen their country bombed for a month and now is being told that by the leader of a country with nukes. Even if you thought the chance was less than 1%. Imagine.
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Jeremy Boreing
Jeremy Boreing@JeremyDBoreing·
Donald Trump has been a national politician for a decade. Anyone still reacting to the guy’s negotiating tactics and hyperbole with this sort of hysteria ten years in should be disqualified from political commentary. If he nukes Tehran at 8pm, I’ll admit I’m the crazy one. When he doesn’t, this crew will admit nothing and find some other comment to be scandalized by.
Bo Winegard@EPoe187

Ok this is legitimately a threat to annihilate an entire people, an obvious and grotesque war crime. There is absolutely no defense of this and it should lead to immediate impeachment and removal.

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Kutark Validus
Kutark Validus@KutarkV·
If I were Netflix I'd just cancel 100% of every person's subscription's based in those countries, refund them pro rata, and then tell them to eat a fat cock. Sick of this euro-commie bullshit, as long as they notify you sufficiently ahead of time, you can cancel the service if you're unhappy with a rate change. This forced pricing garbage is just more anticapitalist leftist control schemes sold under the guise of "protecting the consumers".
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Aakash Gupta
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta·
The math Italy just handed Netflix is terrifying for every subscription company on Earth. 5.4 million Italian subscribers. Up to €500 per Premium user, €250 per Standard user. Netflix launched in Italy at €11.99/month in 2015 and hiked four times to €19.99 by 2024. The court said every single increase was illegal because the contract never stated a justified reason for any of them. The total refund exposure is somewhere in the hundreds of millions of euros. For a single country with ~2% of Netflix's 325 million global subscribers. Here's what nobody is pricing in: Germany and Spain have already filed identical challenges using the same EU Directive from 1993. Berlin and Cologne courts already ruled that generic price-change clauses are void. Italy just gave every consumer group in Europe a finished legal template. Netflix hiked prices globally on March 26. Six days later, this ruling dropped. The company is now simultaneously raising prices worldwide while a court in its fourth-largest European market ordered it to roll prices back to 2015 levels. The real exposure here isn't Italy. Netflix can absorb hundreds of millions. The real exposure is the legal principle: telling customers "we're raising your price, you can cancel if you don't like it" is not consent under EU law. That logic applies to every subscription service operating in Europe. Every SaaS company. Every streaming platform. Every telecom. The freedom to cancel is not the freedom to agree. That one sentence just repriced the entire European subscription economy.
Pubity@pubity

Italy has declared that Netflix's recent price hikes from 2017 to 2024 were illegal and enacted without proper warning for customers. Netflix not only has to reduce its price in Italy, but pay customers back every cent they overpaid.

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ค้นพบ

@fit_businessman @lord_fed @krassenstein @FinanceLancelot @mark_slapinski @David_Tracey @Julietrhem @KobeissiLetter