Bitlinc
18.5K posts
Bitlinc
@bitlinc
Mining | BTC / LND Nodes | Bitcoin greater than all alts (a few alts aren't scams) | finance | TA | investing / speculating
Tennessee เข้าร่วม Haziran 2009
1.5K กำลังติดตาม420 ผู้ติดตาม
The Bitcoin bottom is not in.
We are still in a bear market.
You're welcome. Now repost this into oblivion.
Jesse Olson@JesseOlson
Two bounces, same pattern in a #Bitcoin bear market. Oversold signal (blue candles), bullish divergence, and both times price retraced to the exact same sniper targets. Now we find out if history repeats. 🎯
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#Bitcoin / $BTC
$100K is still FUD.
We're in a commodity supercycle, and Bitcoin is oversold and overdue for its turn to run.
Kalshi Traders@KalshiTrade
BREAKING: 40% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year 10% chance it happens before June
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@DreamDividend @StockMKTNewz When others say it better…
Capital For Value@Capital4Value
@OKavrak Wow...I actually think I know this guy. Also, I am sorry, but I cannot stand when people put MBA as a designation. You don't BA/BS for your undergrad. Why do it for an MBA. No one with a masters in another area puts as a designation. Its usually just MBA people.
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@StockMKTNewz This person is an idiot.
Sorry to be so blunt.
I have an MBA from an elite school.
When you’re a top post graduate with a top degree from a top school you don’t list your soccer trophy certifications alongside it
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This is the type of person who becomes a Financial Advisor and just buys you index funds
Oktay Kavrak, CFA@OKavrak
You may have worked your entire life in finance, but have you met the final boss?
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@SpecialSitsNews @JG_Nuke You talk a lot about $sofi
PS: this is an incredible account to follow - bi-partisan market analysis
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$sofi response to the Muddy waters short report...
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Just saw the new CFP commercial on ESPN.
The whole pitch is that CFPs have to act in your best interest, but that is basically the same standard for any registered investment adviser.
So why does it “gotta be a CFP?”
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@tedlliott @Innerdevcrypto Yup, I don’t understand NAV
Such a complex subject
Nailed it…
I should probably study the white paper more huh
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@bitlinc @Innerdevcrypto They arent leaving anything out? We all know how it works and are comfortable with it. You dont seem to understand that the increase in shares issued also comes with an increase in the underlying asset value that the shareholders are buying on basis of.
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Just so i have said it publicly on here:
I think the whole Michael Saylor bitcoin adventure will end up with the biggest blow up we have seen in the history of crypto. My analysis of his strategy does not find a mistake, but i base this on my intuition, something just feels very off about this
Or he will end up with almost all of the bitcoin, which is just as bad
Either way, no happy ending to this story in my opinion
Hope i am wrong on this, but when i see yield promises of 11.5% combined with CT en masse saying bitcoin will moon again...all my intuitive alarm-bells go off
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RUMOR: MAJOR CYBERATTACK UNDERWAY TARGETING AMERICA’S CREDIT CARDS
IRAN IS TRYING TO WIPE AMERICANS CC DEBT TO DESTABILIZE MAJOR BANKS
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@tedlliott @Innerdevcrypto Nice, the intellectual inbreds are here
In 2000 they reported $66 million in fake income through bartered deals
That’s fraud dood
Misleading investors
Today they make baseless claims about paying yields leaving out they dilute share holders to pay back other share holders
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@bitlinc @Innerdevcrypto tell us what the scam is... the issue that came up March 21, 2000 has nothing to do with what we are talking about
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This is big news and a major regulatory breakthrough for the SMR industry although it's not time for a victory lap just yet. The first construction license for a non-lwr is a major milestone, but this isn't a Combined Construction and Operating Licenses. Terra Power will still need to apply for an operating license when construction is complete, so a "second first" is still required to get this reactor running. Also the Natrium reactor uses HALEU fuel, the supply chain for which is shaky at best. The only major supplier is Russia at the moment and it's illegal for US companies to buy from them. Centrus Energy has a fuel plant in Ohio under construction, but it's still several years away from being able to supply a full core worth of HALEU fuel.
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BREAKING: For the first time in its 52-year history, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved the construction of a nuclear reactor based on core coolant technology invented AFTER 1960. It's about time!
Office of Nuclear Energy | US Department of Energy@GovNuclear
MAKING HISTORY 🚧: @TerraPower’s Natrium advanced reactor project in Kemmerer, Wyoming, just received a construction permit from the @NRCgov. It’s the first commercial non-light-water power reactor construction permit to be approved by the NRC. energy.gov/ne/articles/nr…
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Bitlinc รีทวีตแล้ว
What happens to the stock market during wars or geopolitical events?
First, you need to zoom out. Your money isn't invested for tomorrow. It's invested for the next decade +.
Looking at historical events, the stock market has recovered from every event.
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I agree. I don’t think we need a border wall anywhere, really.
It’s quite silly when you consider what alternatives are available.
James Talarico@jamestalarico
President Trump wants to build a wall through Big Bend National Park. One of the most sacred places in Texas. Texans have a message for him: Come and take it.
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@HodlMagoo Exactly, because Bitcoin hasn’t been the debasement trade or inflation hedge… that narrative isn’t showing in price action.
Doesn’t mean it’s dead
Price first… narrative later
We welcomed in Wall Street - we get what we deserve
Overlay bitcoin with the software sector
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🚨 “YOUR DOG IS NOT YOUR CHILD.” — WOMAN DEMANDS WE “NORMALIZE NOT LIKING DOGS”
She knew this would get her canceled.
She said it anyway.
“I don’t want to pet your dog.
I don’t want to see a picture of your dog.
I don't want to hear about your dog.
Please keep your dog away from me.”
She even says she feels “sociopathic” for not melting over dogs.
Then she flips it.
Letting an animal that’s been “walking all over the world” into your HOUSE…
Into your BED…
Letting it lick your face?
“That’s insane behavior.”
She also calls out owners who let dogs run up to strangers:
“Train it. Leash it. Not everybody likes dogs.”
The comments are already exploding:
“Your dog is NOT A CHILD.”
“The smell is 80% of the issue.”
“The jumping, the barking, the licking. No thanks.”
“Their houses always feel so dirty.”
Be honest, is disliking dogs the red flag… or is dog obsession out of control?
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Everyone on my timeline, I mean EVERYONE was max bearish the last 24 hours
50k, 40k, even 30k targets
Literally the DUMBEST takes I've ever seen
But why? FEAR & GREED
Fear to buy here - because you may lose money
Greed, because they wanted lower entries
EVERYONE wanted sub $60k
Well guess what, the market said "Screw you" and is now pumping
Either buy BTC 50% off the highs, or cry when we're back at $100k+
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“SO BASICALLY THIS COMPANY CALLED ANTHROPIC SCRAPED THE ENTIRE INTERNET AND STOLE EVERYONES ART AND SECRETS OR SOME SHIT AND THEN THEY GOT REALLY MAD WHEN SOME CHINESE COMPANIES STOLE THE SAME SHIT THAT THEY JUST STOLE. ANYWAYS IM SO DRUNK RIGHT NOW.”
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With a deflationary shock from AI on everyone's minds, it's worth remembering what this would do to the government's finances
Going to spend some time on an article tomorrow fully outlining my thoughts, but:
The numbers have changed, but the math hasn't
Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️)@infraa_
Why the US cannot afford a recession: At the end of the day, a government is no different than a business. It has costs (expenditures) and it has revenue (tax receipts). Because of the bleak fiscal position of the United States, a recession will act as a margin call on the debt and deficit. The US government is way out over its skis and over-leveraged, and a recession will act as a margin call. Here’s how: During a recession, expenditures go up and revenues go down- the last thing you want when you are already running a historic deficit (during peacetime and full employment) Current situation Currently, tax receipts (revenue) stands at $4.4T and spending is $7.7T Of this $7.7T in spending, Social Security and Medicare are $3.2T, defense is $900B and interest is $1T, leaving us with $5.1T that cannot be cut Expenditures During the Dotcom bubble of 2000, expenditures increased by 13% During 2008, expenditures increased by 9% This leaves us an average increase of 11% and would take our total expenditures up to $8.6T Revenue (tax receipts) During the Dotcom bubble, revenue fell by 24% During 2008, revenue fell by 32% This leaves us an average decrease of 28% and would take our total revenue down to $3.2T Deficit Currently, we are running a $1.7T pro-cyclical deficit, (during “good times”) Using the numbers outlined above, our deficit would blow out to $5.4T. Each and every year. That is a 215% increase in the deficit GDP and the Deficit Remember, the government cannot create anything on its own- it must leech off the economic activity of the businesses and citizens within that country. This “income”, as I always put it, is the GDP. GDP is what allows the government to service its debt and to operate Our GDP is currently $27T and with a deficit of $1.7T, is 7% of GDP (again, during peacetime and full employment- this is unprecedented) In the GFC, GDP fell by 4% and during COVID, by 10% Split the difference at 7%, and our GDP will fall to $25T The deficit of $5.4T, as a share of GDP, would be 21% This is full-blown emerging market, money printing bonanza, imminent insolvency sort of a number Return on debt The return on each dollar of debt decreases as the debt to GDP increases. If you can get a $1.50 return on each $1 of debt, that’s actually a great deal. However, in Q1 of 2024, our debt increased by $785B and we got $300B of return (GDP) That’s a $0.35 return on every $1.00 of debt Put another way, we now need to spend $2.60 to get a $1.00 return And the worst part, is this return keeps getting lower (Q4 was $0.40 per $1.00 of debt) and the trend would only accelerate massively during a recession, meaning more and more debt/money needs to be issued to sustain a given amount of economic activity Assuming this 0.35 return rate (it would likely be even lower), the government would need to issue/print $5.8T, just to keep the GDP propped up at what it was (0% GDP growth rate). Because expenditures are (and have been for decades) growing significantly faster than receipts, we cannot sustain anything other than positive GDP growth. In fact, GDP must grow faster than expenditures, just to get back to break even (as outlined in my pinned post) What it means In the situation I outline above, bond yields will likely go up, not down. The bond market understands that a "normal" recession (given current fiscal picture as outlined above) requires the US to print insane sums of money, just to break even and stay stagnant. The numbers I outlined above are all public, and the math is simple. If some nerd in his pajamas, like me, can figure this out, best believe the smartest traders in the world (bond traders) can see all of this, too. It's not a "normal" recession. These are not "normal" numbers. Because yields would go up, this means that the interest expense of $1T (which is already 25% of receipts) would increase, rapidly. This makes the situation exponentially worse as each dollar of debt will 'cost' that much more. And not only are these vicious cycles (negative feedback loops), but they are exponential. This is the doom loop. This is the sovereign debt crisis of any emerging market over the past 100 years. This is why they cannot a recession. It is an existential threat to their very existence, and best believe they will act that way. If you thought 40% M2 growth during COVID was a lot, this would make that look like child's play. Not only is significant inflation needed to just service the debt, but even more inflation will be needed to delever x.com/infraa_/status… The sovereign debt crisis is already here. The Fed and US government are completely trapped.
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@GinoTheGhost Huh?? I guess after 10 years of cycles don’t matter anymore because pump meh bagz.
October top was never a mystery. Easy to see
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Single-handedly destroyed the golden bullrun you were promised. You aren’t mad enough.
Zach Humphries@ZachHumphries
HUGE: The $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoin carnage is even worse than we thought. A new report from CryptoRank reveals retail investors have lost a staggering $4.3 BILLION as these assets collapsed 90%+ from their highs. The math is disgusting: => Retail: -$4.3 Billion (2M+ wallets underwater) => Insiders: +$600 Million cashed out => Ratio: For every $1 insiders made, ordinary people lost $20. The "official" seal of approval was the ultimate liquidity trap. Be careful out there.
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@RealJohnGaltFla @LynAldenContact Nothing like reading a @BillAckman
AI slop vs real human genuine genius
We’re lucky to have him on X
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@LynAldenContact It's like reading a Bill Ackman tweet. Hard pass.
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