Bronson รีทวีตแล้ว
Bronson
8.2K posts
We are so cooked.
Anthropic just accidentally leaked its most powerful AI model because someone forgot to lock a blog CMS. They’re warning it could “outpace the efforts of defenders” in cybersecurity.
Do you understand what just happened??
Close to 3,000 unpublished files were sitting in a publicly accessible data store.. Draft blog posts, PDFs, details of a secret CEO retreat at an 18th-century English manor. Anyone could find them. Anthropic’s response? “Human error.”
The leaked documents describe a new model tier above Opus. Dramatically better than anything that exists.
Their own internal draft says it’s “far ahead of any other AI model in cyber capabilities.” Anthropic confirmed it’s real. They called it “a step change.”
They are terrified of their own model.
CrowdStrike dropped 7%. Palo Alto Networks fell 6%. Cybersecurity ETF down 6% in a single session, now 20%+ on the year. Bitcoin slid from $70K to $66K overnight. $20 billion in market cap vaporized over a draft blog post about something that hasn’t even shipped yet.
A $380 billion company with $20+ billion in revenue is telling you, in their own leaked words, that the thing they built will break the internet’s defenses faster than anyone can patch them.
They wrote that down. In a blog draft. Then left the blog draft unlocked on the internet.
Every script kiddie with API access is about to become a state-level threat actor.. Every firewall vendor is about to become a legacy vendor.. Every “we take security seriously” banner on every SaaS login page is about to age like milk.
Sleep well tonight.
Polymarket@Polymarket
BREAKING: Anthropic data leak reveals the existence of “Claude Mythos,” a new AI model that reportedly presents unprecedented cybersecurity risks.
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@ArthurMacwaters @elonmusk A lot of experiments on rats aren’t replicable with humans
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Without a frontier, there's a strong likelihood that we devolve into mouse utopia
This is why space exploration is far more important than most people realize
Hunter Ash@ArtemisConsort
I have a pet theory that the suckiness and stuckness of modernity is largely due to lack of a frontier. There must be new territory to expand into, places no one yet owns that aren’t choked with rent-seeking parasites. There was a gap in time between settling the whole Earth and space being economically settleable. If we can build financially viable moon bases now, then thankfully the suck period has ended and a new age of exploration has begun. Expect everything to get better in a million ways small and big.
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Bronson รีทวีตแล้ว
🚨 JUST IN: Stephen Miller lays it out PERFECTLY
Imagine a "native Minnesotan who works as a lineman...worried about his ability to support for and provide his family."
"And then imagine that he has a neighbor who's a SOMALI REFUGEE who arrived two years ago and has a Mercedes and NO financial stress and no worries at all in the entire world and never seems to ever go to work at all because he just went to an office in the state, lied on a piece of paper, and got unlimited free money forever for life!"
"THAT is the system that is being run and that is the corruption that this task force under the leadership of the Vice President is going to demolish." @StephenM
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Bronson รีทวีตแล้ว
A new study finds California has the second worst roads in America, ahead of only Alaska. When you pay the highest gas taxes yet drive over the deepest potholes, your government is broken.
New York Post@nypost
Decrepit state of California's highways revealed in report ranking them worst in US trib.al/fgZ47C8
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It was 2 weeks, 2 weeks ago 😏
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
RUBIO TOLD G7 FOREIGN MINISTERS TODAY THAT THE WAR WITH IRAN WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-4 WEEKS
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I don't think demand for compute peters out in the next few years. Sure there are bottlenecks, but that's partly how the AI economy broadens out too.
Demand is just getting started. FSDs, robots, space-based datacenters, we still haven't seen massive enterprise adoption or sovereign AI take off. Supply will be forced to come online, i.e. projects like Terafab.
Look, neither the bulls or the bears seem too happy, and maybe that's a safe place for investors to be. I appreciate your points. I see upside ahead as the bear theories fail to come through to fruition.
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I think a lot of investors agree with you.
But I would say long-term expectations are much more important than a one-year P/E.
Look closely at the below revenue expectations for the next four years. This is what's baked into the current stock price.
Will the hyperscalers, who are already spending more than 100% of FCF as a group on Capex, nearly triple their purchases of Nvidia's chips in four years? While many are developing their own chips in-house? What about four years after that? The stock price requires this to go on forever.
Meanwhile, $10s of billions in chips sit in warehouses (and Nvidia's own inventory) due to slower than bargained for data center build-out and power shortages.
It's not about last year's earnings, it's about growth going forward. They are making a fortune today, for sure. The case for indefinite high growth from here though is not so strong, imo, and that is why it doesn't have an overly high one-year P/E...
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Contrarian take:
AI will not extend the bull market. Actually, it will end it.
The bull market, which started in 2009 (and only suffered a few multi-month corrections along the way), will probably be ended by the same technology it helped create.
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@JKD_ff @TihoBrkan NVDA is hardly priced for perfection at 21x p/e. It’s priced for disruption. It always hard for people to wrap their heads around exponentials and this might sound crazy, but I think the markets are way underestimating the potential upside of what’s happening
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Many do indeed believe this, which is why we are multiple standard deviations above long-term historical means in CAPE, price/sales, and market cap/GDP(&GNP) ratios.
The current market price holds no margin for error. This "massive transformative buildout" *must* go perfectly for future equity returns to look anything like the recent past.
No margin for error = very fragile.
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I’m late to repost this
But damn this was 🔥 from @friedberg
Waste, fraud and abuse should be a bipartisan issue
Molly O’Shea@MollySOShea
BREAKING: David @friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt" "People don't realize how screwed California is, & I worry that if California falls, so does the union. "$250 billion to $1 trillion short." "This is because for California to get rescued would be a big cost to red states, & I think it creates in the years ahead a lot of tension." "California's functional bankruptcy is a major risk to the country. & I think we need to figure out what we can change to fix it." How we got here: "California has a public pension system, & that public pension system retirees have paid into it & they get some benefits out, & the amount that they're owed back out is somewhere between $250 billion - $1 trillion dollars more than has been paid in. $250 billion to $1 trillion short. If it was the federal government, it would be like, okay, we'll just print more money. California doesn't have the ability to print money, so California has to pay this out, and you can't restructure retirement benefits. There is a Supreme Court case in California that said that once an employee has been offered retirement benefits, even if they're currently an employee, you can never restructure their retirement benefits. It has to stay forever, and the state cannot declare bankruptcy. There's no way for the state to functionally declare bankruptcy. There's no law to allow it. No state has ever declared bankruptcy, and the retirement benefits sit senior to the bonds in California. So you have to pay out the retirement benefits before you pay out all the bond holders that have loaned California the money that they use to run all their programs and services." Hill & Valley Forum 2026 (@HillValleyForum)
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@JKD_ff @TihoBrkan Can’t speak for all investors but I think many know we’re in the middle of a massive transformative buildout with several unprecedented technologies coming online, so it’s hard to stay bearish for long.
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What you describe is an increase in fragility. We will simply get a much more impactful crash whenever it does arrive.
Investors have become almost completely inured to sharp sell-offs. Eventually we will get one that doesn't bounce right back, and the economic impact will be greatly exaggerated and recursive.
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@TihoBrkan Things have accelerated. The crashes don’t last years like they used to. They play out in days, even hours sometimes, and more investors look through them now.
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@bronsonst Yeah, maybe, but only after a big crash. Key word is after.
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Bronson รีทวีตแล้ว
Welcome to Gavin Newscum’s California
They do this frequently because they know there will be no consequences
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Bronson รีทวีตแล้ว
Is there evidence that creating TSA has made air travel safer over the past 25 years?
If not, then why not let the airlines and airports handle it?
Why give politicians the power to play games with the travel of our people?
Lisa Miller@LisaMaret
@RonDeSantis Privatize @TSA since Democrats refuse to fund it. @SecDuffy @elonmusk @Delta @United @realDonaldTrump
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@jasonkoop Yes, all down to the AG1, ice baths, saunas, hydration beverages, coffee makers, activity trackers, mental health services, sleeping aids, mattresses, blood testing services, red-light therapies, red-lens eyewear, deer meat, and cold brews. Not the TESTOSTERONE injections.
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So biohacking's favorite uncle admits he's been injecting himself with synthetic testosterone this whole time. Who's surprised?
futurism.com/health-medicin…
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Bronson รีทวีตแล้ว
HR1 was the Democrats' first legislative priority when they took power during COVID-19.
Not anything pandemic-related. Not the economy. Not global supply chains. Not famines in other countries. Nah. Who cares about that.
But making sure the 2020 election rules that swept them in power stayed forever and then some. Internet voter ID. Banning states from requiring photo IDs or even SSNs.
They benefit from fraud and they know it.
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Using AI "respondents" is literally just making up fake data. Certainly not a poll by any reasonable definition. Firms that make up fake data are permabanned from Silver Bulletin averages and forecasts. There's no exception just because you used ChatGPT for your fake numbers.
Jacob Rubashkin@JacobRubashkin
Imagine trust in polling being at an all time low and then doing “polls” where a quarter of respondents are AI agents hallucinating answers based on exit polling.
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