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@AG75681308 @zerohedge And that’s gonna cost how much?

@zerohedge Oracle isn’t just chasing a $60B promise from OpenAI, it’s quietly building the digital infrastructure for U.S.-aligned AI expansion. Data centers, power build-outs, and cloud pipelines take years, and Oracle is positioning itself at the center of this shift.

"Oracle’s stock jumped by 25% after being promised $60 billion a year from OpenAI, an amount of money OpenAI doesn’t earn yet, to provide cloud computing facilities that Oracle hasn’t built yet, and which will require 4.5 GW of power (the equivalent of 2.25 Hoover Dams or four nuclear plants), as well as increased borrowing by Oracle whose debt to equity ratio is already 500% compared to 50% for Amazon, 30% for Microsoft and even less at Meta and Google. In other words, the tech capital cycle may be about to change." - JPM's Michael Cembalest

@zerohedge They are not. This is just inventory turnover lag. The price increases will come.

Would you look at that: companies are eating tariff costs, as margin pressures persist for an 8th straight month

@mochabear69420 @KobeissiLetter Powell doesn’t set the long dated bonds genius. He can only set short term rates. He lowered rates in september and the 10 year rate went up. Markets set long term rates.

@KobeissiLetter He’s asked Powell multiple times to lower rates but Powell refuses to listen… I think it’s pretty clear what’s happening but you don’t know until you finally see it

Once again, President Trump’s biggest problem persists even as trade deals are announced. Tariffs paused for 90-days, US-China trade deal has been announced, and inflation data is down. Yet, the 10Y yield is nearing 4.50% again. Trump needs lower rates, but rates won’t fall.

@zerohedge @grok find the link to the FT story mentioned in the image above

Why China exports tumbled to the US and rose everywhere else? One word: transshipments

@Monetaryguy589 How? How can this issue be addressed??

How much interest does the Fed pay each week to Foreign Banks and Foreign Officials?😳 Branches of Foreign Banks in the U.S. currently hold over $1.27 Trillion in Reserve Balances🟩with the Federal Reserve. This represents over 40% of all Bank Reserves in the Federal Reserve system - and is currently costing the Fed over $1.07B per week in interest payments - payable in Reserve balance Credits Foreign and Internation Monetary Authorities (FIMA) -over 160 non-bank entities like central banks and monetary authorities - also hold over $380B of dollar deposits with the Fed The FIMA officials receive Reverse Repo🟦collateral like Treasuries (similar to the ON-RRP) - but FIMA participants can't settle with Bank Reserves, so they get their $318M per week of interest in Cash In total, the Fed paid over $1.39 Billion in interest last week - both in Cash and in Reserve Credits - to FIMA officials and Branches of Foreign Banks These interest payments significantly contributed to $674M of Losses that the Fed passed on to the Treasury last week - more than half, in fact. Total losses - or Deferred Assets - now accruing on the Fed's balance sheet has almost eclipsed $230B just in the last 24 months These losses are a result of unprofitable financing operations like IORB and paying interest on dollar deposits to FIMA officials In 2024, the Fed earned $159B in interest income on its SOMA portfolio and paid out $227B in interest expenses on IORB/RRP - a $68B net interest loss - payable to foreigners and financed by the Taxpayers We must educate people and end this madness

@hbigatti @PedroLulaMota Vamos so lembrar que ninguem deixa o dinheiro parado em dolar. Dolar é so moeda. Hoje, sem fazer força dá pra ganhar 4% a 5% ao ano em dolar. Se for um pouquinho mais sofisticado e paciente dá pra ganhar pelo menos uns 8%.

@PedroLulaMota Maior furada isso. O real se desvalorizou muito nesse período escolhido, muito casuístico isso. Se pegar um pouco mais para trás o CDI ganha disparado. Então se apostar que o Real vai continuar desvalorizando, da empate, mas se o Real se valorizar em relação ao Dólar, o CDI ganha

E não é que o JP Morgan fez a mesma conta. CDI em dolares perto de zero em 15 anos.

@ZattarRafael Bota imposto na conta pra ficar mais preciso.

Vamo abrir o jogo? Esquece essa história de que SÓ a bolsa rende no longo prazo. Não dá pra dizer, por exemplo, que o Tesouro IPCA+2050 pagando mais de 7% de ganho real ao ano não será um dos MELHORES investimentos. “Ain, mas não é a inflação real…Ain…” Bom… Isso provavelmente baterá 95% dos investidores profissionais. Você hoje GARANTE mais de 12% ao ano de retorno nominal por 25 anos, maluco. Querer achar as ações que nos próximos 25 anos vão render MAIS que 12-13% ao ano e bater isso aí é quase tentar acertar o c* da mosca. Fiz um vídeo completasso mostrando o poder que esses juros em 25 anos tem. LINK DO VÍDEO NO POST ABAIXO👇

@PedroCerize Machiavelli ja dizia: I judge those princes capable of standing on their own who have an abundance of men or of money, so that they can put together a sufficient army and fight a battle in the field against anyone who comes to attack them.

Existe o poder econômico e o poder militar Coreia e Japão se ajoelham porque não tem exército. China e Rússia podem perder economicamente mas não se submetem. A potência econômica só prevalece se for a potência militar. Guerras Púnicas são um exemplo de uma potência econômica (Catargo) ser destruída por uma potência militar (Roma). E após o século XlX as guerras foram ganhas pelos países com maior capacidade industrial. A indústria constrói e mantém o exército. Atualizando pros dias atuais, a capacidade industrial e tecnológica determinam a potência militar. Nesse aspecto EUA tem domínio tecnológico e China o Industrial. Trump quer trazer de volta capacidade industrial e sabotar o avanço tecnológico Chinês. Desde a queda da URSS vivemos num mundo unipolar que fez a globalização expandir exponencialmente. Estamos passando pela reconstrução de um mundo com duas potências econômico militar. Eu questiono os métodos do Trump mas entendo as intenções. Desde controle do canal do Panamá e da Groenlândia até proteção especial pra aço e alumínio (base industrial) e proteção tecnológica (restrição a exportação de chips NVIDIA, não é a lógica econômica que prevalece. É a luta pela manutenção da hegemonia militar absoluta

@BillAckman Is China reciprocating and offering tariff relief as well? If not, this is just the US showing a weak hand.

The rift is healing. China ‘asks’ for relief from the tariffs creating an opening for a 90-day China tariff pause and negotiations.

@Monetaryguy589 Your point being that if these banks were to repatriate the net cash to their home markets it would put further pressure on the dollar?

Weekly Foreign Bank Liquidity Update 🚨 Foreign Banks with offices in the U.S. are currently holding over $1.34 Trillion in🟢Cash Assets "Reserves" within the Federal Reserve Banking system (42% of all Reserves) They are also🔴Borrowing over $925 Billion in the Domestic U.S. markets - much of which is likely sitting in Cash Assets and being arbitraged (non-FDIC insured Banks are efficient like that👌) Additionally, Foreign Banks have a record $870 Billion in reported dollar obligations🟡"Net Due" back to their Home Offices abroad - these Liabilities are even more likely to be sitting in Cash Assets being arbitraged🙄 I don't know why this isn't more important to discuss

@Leonardootero61 Ah, that my friend, is the question!

@cmsouz WHY NOT ?

O mais engraçado dessa vol toda dos últimos dias são os brasileiros torcendo para a bolsa americana cair. De onde veio essa perseguição contra a lógica e o bom senso?

@nntaleb But if the value added by China is so small than the absorption of the tariff increase on the end product isn’t that high that would make demand drop 50%. What am I missing?

For a good sold in the US for $100, ~$12 go to China (base for tarrif). The rest, $88 for the design + shipping + wholesale + retail + branding, etc. go to US taxpayers! If demand for it drops by 50%, China loses $6 and US agents more than $44, that is 7x more contraction.

@josueguedes_ By the way, 800 bi é equivalente a menos de 2 dias de volume negociado em treasuries.

7/n - Comparando: Dívida total dos EUA: 35 trilhões China detém: 800 bilhões 📉 Isso representa cerca de 2,2% da dívida total. Ou seja: longe de “ser a 2a maior detentora de dívidas públicas dos EUA”, como muita gente afirma por aí.

1/n -🧵 "China é a 2a maior detentora de dívidas públicas dos EUA" Muita gente acredita que a China controla a economia americana por ser “dona” da dívida dos EUA. Mas será que isso é verdade? Vamos destrinchar essa história. 👇

@Heberobruto A China detem o equivalente a 1 dia do volume de trading das treasuries meu amigo

Se a China começar a vender os títulos do tesouro dos EUA, nem o analista mais pessimista pode imaginar o que poderia acontecer

@BNelsonFracker @PeterSchiff @OptionsITrader @howardlutnick Show ONE nation that has expressed desire for zero tariffs before the new US tariff regime was announced.

@PeterSchiff @OptionsITrader @howardlutnick Are you saying, the US and other nations mutual desire for zero tariffs will not matter because of Trumps “ridiculous” formula? Wow brilliant conclusion - Trumps formula can’t be revised to achieve a global goal of zero tariffs. Let me place my bets accordingly.

Commerce Secretary @howardlutnick thinks other countries are dumping their products on the U.S. market at a loss and that foreign VATs are tariffs. He's wrong twice. It's dangerous having someone who knows so little about basic economics giving economic advice to the president.

@PeterSchiff @howardlutnick No he doesn’t think that. He thinks other countries impose significant restriction on US originated products coming into their markets and is using tariffs as a negotiating tool to force these countries to open up their markets to US product.

@Leonardootero61 @cafecomferri Quais?

@cafecomferri diversas no nosso fundo

Brasil x MAG7. Nas palavras do GOAT Julian Robertson

@PedroCerize Cuidado hein.

Já baixou?

@MichaelAArouet Initial valuation of Google was very high and DPZ’s was very low. They converged to roughly the same multiple now so all the extra growth from Google was eaten up by multiple compression