Charles Lyons-Jones

@MichaelS_SAA ‘You’re speaking in riddles, Bernard.’

@MichaelS_SAA I can neither confirm nor deny whether that has ever happened at DFAT because I’m not sure if it ever has happened.

What this timeline shows is that Mr Mandelson’s appointment was treated as a foregone conclusion. As a senior official, Sir Olly had to operate within the constraints his principal had set. There was nothing he could have done differently. x.com/BBCPolitics/st…

@MichaelS_SAA The adverse information about Mandelson was well-known prior to his appointment. He had resigned from cabinet in scandal twice. His links to Russia and China were public. On top of that, his nickname was ‘Prince of Darkness’. Nothing could have saved Starmer from himself.

@cnlyonsjones It turns out Mr Mandelson could be dismissed when adverse information about him emerged. So, undoing the appointment was possible at any time - early could have saved Starmer.

@MichaelS_SAA Starmer had been made aware (prior to Robbins starting as PUS) that the FCDO advised against a political appointment. Yet he still sought the King’s ascent and agrément for Mandelson from the Americans anyway. The ‘major error’ had already been made.

@cnlyonsjones Yes, I was watching it. There’s a moment when even a PM or minister who is ‘not for turning’ needs to be given advice they will hate - but which they need to hear and which can protect them from a major error. Like here.

@MichaelS_SAA Are you watching his testimony? It’s pretty clear Robbins knew what the problems with Mandelson were. The Prime Minister, however, was not for the turning…

@cnlyonsjones Well, he could have drilled in enough to know there was a problem and given unwelcome advice.

Whatever the outcome of this committee hearing #Robbins is coming across as a brilliant civil servant - who is entirely in control of the facts, the sensitivity, the code and the principles of his job. And he is exposing the PM as a leader who either didnt grasp the facts, ignored smart advice - or has chosen to appear outraged when he should not have been.

@TomMcTague @alessionaval ‘Deemed manageable but would rather not deal with at all’ I think might be more accurate.

Starmer's position is that Olly Robbins behaved appallingly for not blocking his decision to appoint Mandelson US amb after it had been announced, blessed by the King and agreed by the US in time for the inauguration—as requested by No 10—because of security risks the Foreign Office deemed manageable.

'The handover briefing I was getting was what I felt was a genuinely dismissive attitude to his vetting clearance. The focus was on getting him to Washington quickly' Sir Olly Robbins is giving evidence to Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee on Mandelson's appointment.

Hard to find fault with Olly Robbins’ judgment when reading this.

Hard to overstate how damaging this would be to the integrity of the vetting system.

Some news. I have a short Penguin special (just 25,000 words) coming out as part of a @LowyInstitute paper series on April 28. It's called Inflection Point: Biden, Trump, and the Future World Order. It's partly a memoir with reflections on my time in the Biden administration and partly an analysis of Trump's second term. The key argument is that there are now two America's: 1) an internationalism that focuses on a post-neoliberal global economy, strategic competition and tech, and 2) an America First movement that builds on Trump's second term. These two Americas will compete for the foreseeable future but never destroy the other. The world will need to hedge against this volatile fluctuation. Pre-order here. Just $6.99 for the Kindle version and $10 for the paperback. penguin.com.au/books/inflecti…

My thoughts on Pakistan's long history of convening rival powers quoted in @NikkeiAsia. asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/comm…

Bingo.

@YamagamiShingo and John Anderson discuss the growing threat posed by China, examining its influence in countries like Australia and exploring how its military and economic expansion can be effectively countered.

FWIW: -As neighbor & friend, naturally Munir would have close ties w/intel folks in Iran. Doesn’t seem like a revelation. -Unclear why US should see his Iran intel ties as a “red flag.” If anything, US now sees this as an asset, given Pak’s mediation role. foxnews.com/world/trumps-f…

China and Russia are incapable of competing with the projection of American power, writes Michael Beckley. The result is a “one-sphere world” dominated by the United States. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

There was unspoken rule in Islamabad’s diplomatic enclave—whenever the IMF came to town, Islamabad would get the bailout. Always. Even if there was no compliance with the last package. You can’t not bailout a country with nukes. economist.com/finance-and-ec…

great post, similar to what i wrote this week: growth, inflation, and interest rates are being almost entirely driven by govt spending and immigration (population growth) - the private economy is retrenching and being overtaken by the political or public economy

This week I joined Charles Lyons-Jones on the @LowyInstitute Conversation podcast to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping, 🇦🇺 naval capability $ more. You can listen to the podcast here lowyinstitute.org/publications/s…, or wherever you get your podcasts. @DefenceUwa @LowyInstitute @NSC_ANU