Catherine Rampell

I asked @crampell to outline just how bad it can get economically because of the war in Iran. Here's what she came up with thebulwark.com/p/global-reces…

Last year, Donald Trump Jr. invested in a rare earths startup at a $200 million valuation. Then three months later, the US government announced a huge loan backstop for the company and now it's worth around $2 billion. bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Oil shocks have historically preceded recessions in the United States (and elsewhere). So it’s worth walking through why this war and its resulting supply-chain disruptions have significantly raised the odds of recession—and what that outcome would actually look like.

Higher gasoline and diesel prices are now costing the U.S. economy half a billion dollars more every single day (and rising) versus three weeks ago. A staggering rise and near record-setting.

The Trump administration is weighing whether to ask Congress for $200 billion for the war with Iran. @RohdeD, @crampell and @stengel join @KatyTurNBC to break down the economic impact of the conflict. ms.now/katy-tur/watch…

per Politico Pulse today — someone at HHS, fed up with inbound calls, apparently changed a phone number listed on the agency's website to Domino's Pizza HHS spox blamed a "rogue employee"

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

This story is HORRIFIC. This DACA recipient was brought here by his parents in 1999 when he was 8 years old. He is a laboratory scientist who's had DACA since 2012. Now he's languishing in an ICE detention center because the Trump admin failed to process his renewal in time!

The cost of buying and owning a car has soared since the pandemic. Navy Federal's Cost of Car Ownership Index is +41% since January 2020 CPI is +26% since January 2020 Wages are +31% Almost every aspect of buying, owning, insuring and repairing a car has jumped. And now we are in the midst of another gas price shock. ‘It’s Just Crazy’: High Car Payments Make Ownership Feel Impossible by @onlykailyn nytimes.com/2026/03/16/bus…

The U.S. owes $700 million more in interest every month it delays IEEPA refunds.

Did you know that 6 months ago, while presumably we were planning this stupid war, the Navy decommissioned its four Avenger-class minesweepers that had been stationed in Bahrain precisely to deal with Iranian mines in the Strait? More from JVL. thebulwark.com/p/our-low-iq-p…

Stephen's Miller contention that illegal immigration drives the *entire* $1.8 trillion budget deficit is the fiscal equivalent of 2+2=purple. There is no scenario where its even 1% correct. Just ask DOGE, which identified virtually zero savings from this category.

Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of U.S. forces in the region, people familiar with the matter said wsj.com/world/russia-i… via @WSJ

Diesel fuel prices in the US—the lifeblood of freight, agriculture, and construction—have risen above $5/gallon

The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut. A month ago, no one would have believed this.

> be Donald Trump > win a cost-of-living election > immediately announce the largest tariff program in the last 100 years > spend the next year carving out those tariffs > “well at least the price of oil is falling” > launch war that instantly raises the price of oil

JUST IN: Lawyers for accused DNC/RNC pipe bomb planter Brian Cole Jr. move to dismiss charges against him, saying his alleged conduct night before #Jan6 is covered by Trump's pardon of crimes "related to" events at Capitol the following day. w/@kyledcheney politico.com/news/2026/03/1…

Explicit antisemitic attitudes are now much more common among young voters - 18 year old registered voters are now ~5x more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the Jewish people than 65 year olds.

Feels like a lot of people have no idea what’s in the pipeline

@SenatorBeau @MaxNordau @NickRiccardi It is not demographic change and the question is literally about whether or not you like Jews