Tim Miller
96.4K posts
@Timodc
Host of The Bulwark Podcast | msNOW analyst | Author “Why We Did It” | Jokic обожавалац | Weak and Gay | Never Trump
Hegseth: Iran is an energy rich country. instead, like so many other places, driven by a radical ideology, instead of investing in their people… they invested in missiles, and they invested in launchers and UAVS.
SCOOP: The Pentagon asked the White House today for more than *$200 billion* for the Iran war supplemental, sources say Some White House aides think Congress won't support b/c it's so big Will tee up giant battle in Congress
Last year, Donald Trump Jr. invested in a rare earths startup at a $200 million valuation. Then three months later, the US government announced a huge loan backstop for the company and now it's worth around $2 billion. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
🚨 HOLY SMOKES. President Trump just DROPPED THIS LINE on Japan! JAPANESE REPORTER: Why didn't you tell Japan before the Iran war? PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Why didn't you tell ME about PEARL HARBOR?!" "You believe in surprise much more-so than US!" 😭😭
Iran appears to have scored a successful hit in the vicinity of Israel's Haifa oil refinery moments ago.
I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…
BESSENT: US MAY UNSANCTION IRANAIN OIL THAT'S ON WATER BESSENT: WHEN WE UNSANCTION IRAN OIL, CAN GO TO EX-CHINA PLACES So we can see the regime selling oil legally at a much higher price?
NEW ODD LOTS HOW THE IRAN WAR WILL SQUEEZE AMERICA'S FARMERS EVEN FURTHER @TheStalwart & I brought back @AgrisAcademy's Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen to talk about how surging oil and fertilizer costs will make things even harder for farmers: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how…
1/ Denmark was reportedly preparing for full-scale war with the US over Greenland in January, with military support from France, Germany, and Nordic nations. Elite troops and F-35 jets with live ammunition were sent, and runways were to be blown up to prevent an invasion. ⬇️
SCOOP: The Pentagon asked the White House today for more than *$200 billion* for the Iran war supplemental, sources say Some White House aides think Congress won't support b/c it's so big Will tee up giant battle in Congress
News: Joe Kent is under FBI investigation for allegedly leaking classified information, three sources tell me. I’m told the investigation pre-dates his departure.
