In this past week, I've lost track of how many risk warnings have been published for the Chinese soybean meal ETF diverging from NAV.
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crushspread
38 posts
crushspread
@crushspread
Chinese agricultural analysis
Dublin เข้าร่วม Mart 2025
21 กำลังติดตาม240 ผู้ติดตาม
@NoahOptions What's your opinion on liqudity and transparency in Dalian and Zhengzhou futures and options? Dalian launched new serial options on corn and soybean meal on Feb 2, 2026. Any opinion on premium selling in those?
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@crushspread Yeah that's pretty ironic - opening up markets but keeping the info locked down. I stick to US markets anyway since the liquidity and transparency are way better for premium selling.
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It's an odd situation when China is opening more futures and options trading to international investors, but the website of the newspaper Futures Daily is blocked to anyone outside of China.
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Living in Europe and one time I ordered a Diet Coke and someone referred to it as "American Champagne". Amazing.
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This also leads to an interesting dynamic where the website for the Henan International Investment and Trade Fair is not accessible to anyone outside of China.
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The publication is based out of Henan. Henan seems to have a particularly aggressive firewall for both inbound and outbound internet traffic. Which is a shame, because Futures Daily does great work.
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Not that hog producers in China were doing well before, but... ouch. Green is Dalian soybean meal, red is Dalian corn. Purple is Dalian hogs.
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I was quoted in this recent Financial Times piece about the overcapacity in China's hog sector
ft.com/content/4069c7…
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My latest report on the wheat situation in China is outside the paywall if you want to get caught up on the market.
sitoniaconsulting.com/2026/03/25/whe…
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China changing how it reports wheat crop conditions in the middle of a growing season does not seem like a great sign.
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@agtradertalk @GoddessofGrain The DOGE kids fired like 35% of the USDA. Could it be possible the USDA doesn't know what is happening? They weren't great with export sales reporting before the purge.
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@GoddessofGrain True but if they were trying to show signs of the commitment (more political than economic) one would think they'd maybe show something. Right now just bare minimum.
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Not saying anything, just saying, but China new crop soybean commitments are 0. If they were going to buy 25 mmt in a season, one would think they'd have something on the books. Their largest book for this week was around 5-6 mmt back in 22/23 and 11/12.
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God help us if all these AI people obsessed with OpenClaw discover the Lobster Festival in Dalkey, Ireland.
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China might have an issue with its winter wheat. I'm not going to translate this, but green is good, orange is not good.
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If China had a record corn crop, it would be very odd to be bulk-selling wheat in March. Unless the crop wasn't actually a record.
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It's odd that Sinograin is loosening restrictions on participation. It's also odd that feed companies are buying wheat at a large premium to corn, in March, after a record corn harvest.
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Let's talk about US grain exports to China. China reported record corn production of 301 million tons. It's March, and Sinograin is now allowing feed companies to bid on wheat in the national auctions, and raised their selling volume by 200k tons.
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@bryancsk That was the one downside when I left Dalian and moved to Shanghai.
皮皮虾 > hairy crabs.
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I went to Dalian when I was 14 and didn't know how good I had it. There were fresh seafood markets of the day's catch, and you can bring the fresh seafood you buy next door to have it cooked. The literal freshest seafood possible. But as a teenager I was a bit indifferent about seafood.
大阪七絃琴館@windson0707
日本に来る前に、多くの外国人は、日本は海に囲まれていて海鮮が豊富で、尽きることがなく、しかも安いと勘違いしがちです。しかし実際には、日本の海鮮価格指数は世界平均を大きく上回り、世界でも上位にあると言われています。2023年には海鮮価格が前年比で約25％も上昇しました。 私の故郷（大連）も海鮮がとても豊富で、伝統的な中華料理のさまざまな調理法だけでなく、餃子や中華まんに入れたり、海鮮麺や海鮮粥、海鮮撈飯やチャーハンなどにもよく使います。 さらに、特別な調理をしなくても、シンプルに茹でて大きなボウルに盛り、家族みんなで囲んで食べるのが定番です。でも日本で同じことをしようとすると、本当に破産しそうになります（富豪は除く）。 どうして日本の海鮮はこんなに高いのでしょうか？ 次回、大連の海鮮料理を紹介しますね。
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In that context, Sinochem saying last week that customers who hoarded or over-bought fertilizer would be reported to the relevant authorities seems like par for the course in terms of Chinese fertilizer markets.
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Chinese urea prices went up in May 2025 on rumors that exports would resume. The industry group put out a notice that companies should keep prices unchanged, or limit the increase to 100 yuan per ton or less. Or they could "face policy consequences".
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