Dan Runkevicius

After nearly six weeks of shelling Iran, Trump is hinting that the operation may be entering its final stretch, and markets are starting to take his word for it. The president said peace talks with Tehran could restart “within the next two days,” while suggesting the current ceasefire might not even need to be extended. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told ABC News. In a separate interview, he went further, calling the war “close to over.” The sense that the worst-case energy shock is becoming less likely was enough to push stocks back near all-time highs and pull oil below $90. However, the elephant is still in the room... Full story ⤵️ email.investorsobserver.com/preview/138632…

AI demand is rewriting the outlook for ASML 👀 The chip equipment giant just raised its 2026 sales forecast to as much as €40B, up from €39B, as global spending on AI infrastructure accelerates. CEO Christophe Fouquet said the industry outlook is strengthening, driven by AI, with customers already ramping capacity for the years ahead. With the stock up 39% this year and companies planning trillions in AI investments, ASML sits at the center of the semiconductor race. $ASML @ASMLcompany

Summer travel just got a lot more expensive. ✈️ Long-haul flight prices have surged in recent weeks as the Iran war disrupts a key global air corridor. Airlines are burning more fuel, flying longer routes, and operating fewer flights at the same time. The result: ticket prices are surging, especially on routes between Asia and Europe. The increases aren’t gradual. Data from Alton Aviation Consultancy shows that fares on major long-haul routes jumped sharply from February to March: • Hong Kong–London: +560% • Bangkok–Frankfurt: +500% • Sydney–London: +429% • Amsterdam–Singapore: +251% • Singapore–London: +227% Routes that cost a few hundred dollars just weeks ago are now priced in the thousands. A Sydney-to-London ticket, for example, is now averaging well above $1,500. Full story ⤵️ email.investorsobserver.com/preview/138632…

Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours. The last 24 hours of traffic have been like a ghost town. Source: @MarineTraffic

The real story from tonight isn’t the ceasefire but how it came together and what happened soon after. Here are a few key takeaways from our editor Dan @danrunk: 👉 First, the market made it clear that it cares more about Hormuz than about the war itself. The moment traders saw a path to reopening the strait, oil, gas, equities, bonds, and currencies all moved in classic relief mode. That tells you the biggest fear is inflation, not geopolitics. 👉 Second, Trump looks to have backed away from the brink. Just hours before the agreement, he had been threatening devastating escalation. Then came a two-week truce and a claim that Iran’s 10-point proposal was a workable basis for talks. That is a major retreat, and it reinforces the now familiar TACO pattern: Trump will often push hard, then step back before the full economic damage hits. 👉 Third, the diplomacy is messy. Pakistan has emerged as a surprisingly central mediator, and China may also have been influential behind the scenes given its ties to Iran and its dependence on Iranian oil. That tells you this is no longer just a Washington-Tel Aviv-Tehran story. So what happens next? 1️⃣ If tanker traffic through Hormuz visibly resumes over the next 24 to 72 hours, oil probably has more room to come down and stocks could jump higher, especially in beaten-down tech and other risk-sensitive trades. But if traffic stays slow, if fee disputes flare up, or if missiles keep flying through proxies and side fronts, this relief rally won't last. 2️⃣ Gasoline and diesel prices won’t magically normalize overnight, even if crude keeps falling. Physical fuel markets usually lag the headline move in futures, and the aviation industry is already warning jet fuel could take months to stabilize. 3️⃣ And the third, the ceasefire does not yet solve the deeper issues around sanctions, Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, proxy conflicts, or the long-term status of the strait. Those are the things that decide whether this becomes a durable turn or just another fake calm before the next spike in oil. #IranWar‌ $USO $XOM $FRO

Carnival was supposed to be proof that the economy wasn’t heading toward a recession. Record bookings. Record revenue. Full ships charging premium prices. If consumers were still dropping four figures on cruises, the narrative that the economy was losing steam didn’t hold up. No longer does that seem to be the case. And not because demand is fading. Because fuel is. Carnival just told investors to brace for an unprecedented surge in fuel expenses: • It expects $610 million in fuel costs across the three months ending in May, up 53% from the previous three-month period • That’s roughly $80 million above analysts’ expectations • Full-year fuel expenses are now expected to hit about $2.15 billion, up roughly a third That alone has already forced a 5% cut to profit forecasts. That may not sound like much, but to the travel business, that means the world because of razor-thin margins. But not only that... Read more ⤵️ investorsobserver.beehiiv.com/p/iran-calls-o… $CCL

Tesla’s robotaxi dream just hit a major roadblock 🚧 $TSLA is down over 18% this year as U.S. regulators escalate a probe into its Full Self-Driving system, raising the risk of a forced recall. GLJ Research (@GordonJohnson19) warned that “a forced recall on FSD does not slow the robotaxi story… it ends it,” pointing to growing regulatory pressure and safety concerns. With federal scrutiny intensifying and autonomy seen as key to Tesla’s $1T+ valuation, is the market underestimating this risk? More on this in the comments below ⬇️

The Iran war is wreaking havoc on commodity markets, threatening to unleash a fresh wave of inflation and economic misery as oil prices surge. That’s what everyone is focused on, but it may not be what’s actually driving markets. For investors, the bigger problem is what’s happening in the Treasury market. “Yields surging are a far more existential threat than Iran at this point,” wrote Otavio Costa (@TaviCosta), founder and CEO of Azuria Capital. The numbers back it up. Continue reading ⬇️