Dan Ujczo
6K posts
@danujczo
International Trade and Customs Attorney with a focus on Canada-US matters. Posts are personal views only. Likes/reposts are info only.
The war in the Strait of Hormuz will reach your local pharmacy within six weeks. Not because your pharmacist follows geopolitics. Because the active pharmaceutical ingredients in roughly half of America’s generic prescriptions begin as petrochemical derivatives manufactured in India, and India’s petrochemical industry begins as crude oil that transited 21 miles of water that closed on March 4. Nearly 70 percent of the active ingredients in US generic drugs are produced in India. India imports approximately 40 percent of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The crude feeds refineries that produce naphtha. The naphtha feeds petrochemical crackers that produce intermediates. The intermediates feed pharmaceutical plants in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Hyderabad that produce the API, the active pharmaceutical ingredient, that is shipped to contract manufacturers in the United States, Europe, and across Asia. The chain from the strait to the tablet is six steps long. Every step requires the one before it. CNBC reported that the Hormuz closure puts America’s generic drug supply at risk. Fierce Pharma warned of longer-term effects on US manufacturing and generics. Think Global Health mapped the pharmaceutical supply chains most vulnerable to disruption. The consensus across trade publications, health policy analysts, and industry executives is identical: four to six weeks of current inventory exists in the pipeline. After that, shortages begin with the most complex formulations first. Cancer drugs are the highest risk. Biologics requiring cold-chain storage have the shortest shelf life and the longest replenishment cycle. Clinical trial medications depend on uninterrupted supply chains that are now interrupted. Insulin analogues, antivirals, and cardiac medications all contain intermediates sourced from Indian manufacturers whose input costs are rising with every day the strait remains closed. Air cargo is the emergency bypass. But air freight rates from India have climbed 200 to 350 percent on some routes since the war began, according to logistics tracking firms. Gulf air capacity is down 79 percent because airports in the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar have been damaged or operate under restricted conditions. The Suez Canal route adds 10 to 14 days to maritime shipping times. The Cape of Good Hope route adds 21 to 28 days. Both alternatives assume the Red Sea remains navigable, which the Houthi threat has complicated since 2024. The World Health Organisation reported a 70 percent funding gap for its operational response in the region. Medical supply chains to Iran itself have been devastated, with hospitals reporting shortages of surgical supplies, blood products, and anaesthetics. But the downstream pharmaceutical effect extends far beyond the war zone. Every Indian manufacturer that pays more for crude pays more for naphtha, pays more for intermediates, and passes the cost forward into API prices that American generic drug companies absorb until they cannot absorb any further. The molecule does not know it is a medicine. The strait does not know it is a pharmacy. The petrochemical derivative that becomes a blood pressure tablet transits the same water as the petrochemical derivative that becomes a fertiliser pellet. Both are trapped. Both have shelf lives. Both have planting windows or prescription refill cycles that do not negotiate with blockades. Six weeks. Then the pharmacy starts calling patients about substitutions. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
The Canadian auto industry has been rocked by President Trump’s abandonment of subsidies for electric vehicles and embrace of tariffs. And recently, the president threatened to block the opening of a new bridge between Windsor and Detroit. wapo.st/4bvXuMT
Canada is Ohio’s top trade partner with 40 percent of exports. The trade relationship the Gordie Howe represents is key to continued growth in the region and the country, Mr. Kapszukiewicz said. toledoblade.com/local/communit…
WSJ says the US is running out of munitions for the Iran campaign. The bottleneck isn't missiles. It's chemistry. BAE-Holston, a chemical plant in Kingsport, Tennessee, is the only US producer of RDX and HMX, the explosive compounds inside nearly all U.S. warheads and propellants. At peak production in 1944, Holston shipped over a million pounds of explosives per day across 10 production lines. Today it runs 2. The Army gave BAE an $8.8 billion contract in December 2023. Output went from 8 million pounds a year to 15 million a year in 2024. That's still less than 5% of what it was in WW2. Meanwhile, China has been mass-producing next-generation explosives since 2011. America simply can't make them. In 2023, the Army found over 100 single points of failure in the munitions supply chain alone. If that's what it looks like for explosives, imagine the rest of our chemicals supply chain.
Today at the #PDAC2026 Canadian Critical Minerals Forum, Minister Hodgson announced a new round of 30 partnerships and investments with 12 allies through the Critical Minerals Production Alliance — unlocking $12.1B in mining projects across Canada. ow.ly/VnkW50Yolz1
Michigan economy takes a hit as Canadian visits plummet amid Trump's barbs New data on plunging traffic at the border: detroitnews.com/story/news/loc… via @ben_warren03 @detroitnews
SCOOP: Trump administration officials are scrambling to devise legal strategies that could allow the president to retain billions in tariff revenue the Supreme Court ruled was unlawfully collected, 5 ppl familiar with the discussions told us. Early ideas include: — Claim the tariff payments are legal under a revamped set of duties that the administration is now preparing under different legal authorities — Allow companies to jump to the front of what is expected to be a lengthy queue for refunds if they agree to forfeit some of the money to the government w/ @drdesrochers politico.com/news/2026/02/2…
