Decca Lane Capital

@WaterworldCapi1 Not a great showing, but my son walked out with Belgium so he’s pumped

@KYRRadio Congrats Zach!

Hit a pretty cool milestone this year. Bulwark officially crested the $1 billion. AUM number. Pretty wild. Wouldn’t have happened without the fintwit community. Thank you all and thank you Lord. Been a wild ride and I can’t wait to see where we’re headed next!

@kieranwgoodwin much appreciated

@deccalanecap not much of a sample size so hard to say .. but within 10 points of a mark seems like a good bid given that most likely buyers also have their own problems

Kudos to $NMFC for making a TRUE 3rd party sale to Coller Capital. I would love to know the cover since COLLER HAS BEEN THE ONLY BUYER OF CV in PC. Pin cushion?? But price wasn't 94% of PAR rather FAIR VALUE as of 12/31. Analyst friend of mine calc'd price was around 85

@JaredKubin Thanks

@deccalanecap Pre is my guess

Getting word the OAI raise is $100bn at ~$725bn-ish valuation

@blondesnmoney @brentmuio why?

@brentmuio I think they have better risk to reward than NVDA

@evrgn11112231 @joinyellowbrick @viggy_krishnan This is the way

The old-school value bros believe the market will eventually reward them, but there is some amount of laziness/arrogance in believing that you can own 10 of the most well-known companies in the world and expect to outperform just because they trade at below market multiples.

@bucketshopcap stock picker vs pm is a very different game that is impossible to understand until you are in the seat and answering to someone with the power to pull your capital

@ContrarianCurse Need to read this. My son is on the soccer track and it’s almost impossible to leave and get back on.

Range by David Epstein lays this out very clearly

@JoeCassandra Great message

Some harsh truths for those who choose not to have kids: 1. Taking that one extra 5 day vacation more than me each year doesn't come close to the joy of coaching your kid in sports, seeing them open xmas presents, their 'i love yous' each day 2. A dog is not a 'kid' nor is anything like having a kid. Real facts... your dog takes a backseat when the kid comes 3. The "Fun aunt/uncle" doesn't exist. The kids aren't thinking about you 99% of the time, unless you're at my house 4. "I"ll enjoy having more money" --- the wealthiest people you know all have kids. I literally 10x'd my income SINCE kids 5. We've all lived w/o kids i.e. single, childless. We know what it's like. It's not a 'secret society' you're in. We know what that life entails i.e. a lot of TV 6. You can't think of your life now and go "well, a kid in it is a disaster." A kid makes your life better, it drives you. That Pursuit of Happyness w/ Will Smith is exactly that. 7. I never see the childless people in our n'hood. All the n'hood parties, playing out in the yard w/ the kids, spontaneous discussions w/ neighbors... the childless are locked in their houses. 8. Your relationship w/ your spouse does get harder with kids. That's real life. But, when done right, it enriches your relationship. Your favorite moments will be laying in bed w/ your spouse for hours laughing about all the funny things your kids said 9. Making friends is wayyy easier w/ kids. Parties are more fun too. There's more spontaneity meetings too at sports, school, church etc 10. If you've ever built anything in your life you were proud of... 'building' a great child tops it

@investing_law Right in the middle of this - my mentor (64) has described it as the best part of life multiple times. I remind myself of that often

30s and 40s: > You take care of children > You take care of parents > Your body works somewhat well > You work hard to further your career > You can "do what you want" (allegedly) > It's a lot Obviously, the above are generalizations and not universally applicable...but many of us feel it. I sometimes find myself thinking of the future, when kids require less attention, and when the career will be less demanding. It's easy to think the grass is greener in a year, a decade. But at that point, the parents might be gone. And the kids will be busy. And the body might be going downhill. So in moments like this, when the myriad obligations feel overwhelming, I try to feel grateful for what I have. Every season is perfect in its own way.

@TheLAPurchaser thank you

@deccalanecap It’s good. I think I like $ICLR better in CRO land

HEALTHCARE IS BACK If you have not been paying attention. WAKE UP. IRA pricing puts to bed any residual worries on drug pricing pressure from Trump. Throw a dart at anything in sector that makes you feel warm and fuzzy. There’s bags of gold littered everywhere $XLV

@JaredKubin Much appreciated!

@deccalanecap Ok let me cook. I think Port Opt + Social It’s not only identifying the risks. It’s then “what to do about them”

What would be most helpful for Liquidation Nation? Working on R&D roadmap

@JaredKubin What keeps me up at night is an unintentional factor exposure in my book that drives major underperformance. As a LO, would love to be able to upload my book as the long side and my benchmark as the short side. Love what you’re building.

Portfolio Optimization: Upload a portfolio. Get risk factors and then generate suggestions on increasing or reducing specific factor exposure. “I have $x dollar exposure to AI and HPC BIG BETA, 3 ways to reduce into Fed announcement” Custom Factor Builder: create and track your own factor baskets + share with others (maybe even a leaderboard) Social: think a better organized experience by topic / ticker… using AI for organization and search. What to see what the EPS setup for NVDA is? Easy. Want to see the latest debates on OAI ecosystem? All organized.

@johnwayne12591 @insane_analyst can't imagine which company benefits here

@insane_analyst I work in optics, a lot of the guys that place orders for pluggable transceivers will take time to upgrade their switches to CPO enabled ones. Some may not even chose to upgrade based on their use case. For AI, CPO will definitely be the preferred option.

CPO is more reliable than tranceivers. Pluggable lasers, no wirebonds, and tight integration enables this. Anyone who says CPO is unreliable does not know what they talking about. Germainium photodiodes screened at wafer level. Epoxy for fiber attach solved problem. CPO RELIABLE

@wolfejosh Why Sammy over Micron?

Agree. The current cheery consensus on -demand for endless compute -demand for endless energy -driven by pursuit of scaling laws and 10x larger capital raises each round (mostly sent to NVDA with NVDA now also funding companies to roundtrip + book revenue to maintain valuation) Soon has capex > revenue that hits asymptote and has to contend with small models and…Google And then Apple who has been mocked—as Google was with Bard—may end up shifting the era of cloud compute capex consensus to on-device edge inference with memory players turning that add 1T of market cap to Korea players like SK + Samsung tiny recursive model (TRM)…as in “trim” your costs and your compute budgets and your consensus of linearity Exogenous shocks and necessitated inventiveness (including from China restricted on chips) always surprises and flip turns narratives

@JohnHuber72 What's driving the underperformance? Haven't made this one a research priority. That my need to change. Thank you.

FCNCA underperformance YTD. And it extends to both asset sensitive & liability sensitive; big and small.

@Mike_Taylor1972 Does this mean higher trial volume as whiteboard time gets cut?

This is TRUE IMHO on concept to whiteboard to molecule. AI will vastly accelerate the years of diddling Scientists at a whiteboard.