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DN11 | Fear Without Fire - A technical evaluation of a potential Bitcoin bottom, analysing wave structures, market dominance, and leading macro indicators. newsletter.decodejar.com/p/dn11-fear-wi…

@ConnectoFive 🫡

@decodejar Sounds like an epic adventure you were on. Welcome back.

Good to see BTC is still above 60k. Funny how that low was put in just as the business cycle moved into expansion with the January ISM numbers, and then Bitcoin continued to move up after February also came in positive. Probably nothing. ​On the one hand, there are some obvious risks, geopolitical and otherwise, alongside the stock market putting in a potential rounded top. On the other hand, Gold is in decline, Copper/Gold is up, and Altcoins like TAO are up more than 100% from their February lows. A coincidence no doubt. ​On a personal note, I'm slowly finding my way back from the mountains to civilisation, and I will be home early/mid next week. The Decode Newsletter, DN12, will be ready shortly after that, probably by next weekend. ​I've only had a cursory glance at the charts today, and on the surface everything seems to be as expected. However, there's obviously a lot to dig into, and I'm looking forward to going over everything in detail. ​The Himalayas were amazing; the scale shift was incredible and really helps to put the world into perspective. ​Thanks for sticking around.

@TimstaMills 🍻

@decodejar Welcome back 👍

@VincentKrey Absolutely you must DO IT! 🏔️

@decodejar Welcome back, im a bit jelaous of your trip and hope i can do it as well sometime in my life. maybe my TAO Bag helps me to get there hehe

@SCKDVL 🤝

@decodejar Glad to see you back, safe trip home excited to read DN12 🫡

@nihkalowz 🏔️

@decodejar Safe travels mate, look forward to the fresh perspective when you return.

Heading out into the Himalayas. Will have limited Internet, if any at all, so it's unlikely there will be any updates from me for a few weeks. See you on the other side after a full reset and with a refreshed perspective.

@sminston_with ♥️

@decodejar Be safe out there! Looking forward to more from you when you're back! 😀

@MoonLamboio ChatGPT was wrong, but I was right 👍

I asked ChatGPT what it predicted the new ISM PMI data will show. Data releases in less than 2 hours, 9AM central.

@Mikanoshi Bleak

@decodejar Business cycle is still ending, stocks bear market next, with a recession eventually. Only then moon.

February ISM PMI data is out at 52.4, slightly down from 52.6 in Jan, but around the same level as expected. Most importantly it confirms that January's print was not an anomaly and the expansion is real.

@tradiemat Thanks mate

@decodejar Thanks for the update. Enjoy the Himalayas

Just checking in from Nepal as I have some downtime today, and I see CT is completely distracted as usual. ​War is terrible, and I genuinely hope everyone in every country is safe, but the predictable, planned, systematic restructuring of the Middle East to maintain American strategic interests over the last several decades is something that has become a certainty, at least over my lifetime, and not a surprise. ​There is no shock, nothing to spook the markets, and this should be evident in the Bitcoin price, which is still above its 60k low and continues to base out sideways, as do stocks. It's as if nothing is happening at all. ​If both go lower, the narrative is set, but the technical picture has been the same for weeks. Bitcoin is still searching for either confirmation of a bottom via reversal, or a final marginal lower low at the 200-week SMA. A buying opportunity for sure. ​From the macro side, the business cycle is still expanding, and in a few hours we should see that expansion continue as the February ISM numbers are released. Take the stock market with its long history alongside the ISM, and the correlation is clear, but people will take Bitcoin with its much shorter history and measure a simple time-based cycle instead. ​From my perspective, nothing has changed. If the February ISM is still above 50, as I expect it will be, then that's a big signal, especially if it is trending higher still. Confirmation that January's expansion wasn't an anomaly will encourage allocators to rotate capital out of defensive sectors and assets. With stocks already very extended, I expect beaten-down assets like Bitcoin and crypto to directly benefit from this shift.

@ourelion Yes it's starting to look constructive, so maybe we get some upside finally. Needs a good pop up above 71/72k

@decodejar I haven't seen btc this (2 last dips ~63k) strong since 5 months, this feels like final stages of accumulation and it's getting more and more aggressive now. I have the same observation, if it dips more it will be marginal - it's risky now being sidelined wishing for lower prices

@_FDR_Jr Not sure what you are talking about. I have said we would go lower consistently since November. It is only since the 60k low that I have started to consider a bottom, and so far we are still above 60k. Some chance we go lower still, but it's a coin toss.

@decodejar I told u for weeks we're going lower, u thought the opposite... Not one of u who post about crypto are ever right, it's insane.

@TXMCtrades US aggression is the norm.

This was the second time in 9 months the US struck Iran. In Jan they plucked the leader of Venezuela from his bed in a night raid. 2025 was historic trade war yo-yo. I wonder if markets can grow numb or complacent toward endless geopol chaos?

@ordizoohh Good to see stuff being built 😎

@decodejar very dead! x.com/ordizoohh/stat…

Well... Ordinals might actually be dead.

@smoak58 I think it's a pretty big deal. Magic Eden is the go to exchange. Nothing else has any volume. Where the volume goes will be interesting, does Ordinals Wallet make a comeback for example, but in the near term this will be a significant blow to the ecosystem.

@decodejar ME dies and this stress tests the value proposition. Nothing happening to the underlying assets is the selling point of inscribing data directly on Bitcoin. It proves ordinals are genuinely immutable digital artifacts. Come on dude, we should be cheering at this point.

Things you see near bottoms.

@digitalkm1 It's definitely the sort of thing you see at bottoms!

@decodejar This is our capitulation event. Someone mentioned it resets the order book which is a great perspective. Suddenly all of the listings disappear and we start again 👀🔥