Eric Bialek

@polarcritter @ShotTakingTime It rolls over between all CDI tracks in Ky until someone hits it

@ShotTakingTime I don't think they did

I was off doing zipper business for a little bit. Did they forceout the Turdway Octofecta tonight?

@atTheTrack7 @EJXD2 @polarcritter @AndrewChampagne It sounds like Twinspires should resurrect the batch upload tool they killed ~10 years ago

We are aware that the companies who offer daily fantasy sports and sports betting allow players to batch upload lineups for daily fantasy similar to CAW bets in racing and allow players to do similar with algorithms in sports betting right? There just isn’t an odds board connected to it that the other players see the dramatic swings in prices.

At a national level, horse racing is doing nothing to keep current players or attract new ones. Saying or hinting otherwise just isn't correct. Otherwise, everything is fine.

@InsideThePylons it is better than the current state, but the most complained pool, exacta, probably won't improve much.

@eric_bialek That isn’t “CAW activity” so it sounds like it to me. “CAWs shut off” would probably mean they are shut off.

@HorseToWatch @GiddyUpBets @daveorourke1973 Can the CAWs still bet, but throttled to 6 bets / second past 1 MTP? This sounds great until you realize they can still bet discrete amounts for all exacta combos in a 10 horse race in 15 seconds. With a 30 second pool cycle time, what really changes?

@GiddyUpBets .@daveorourke1973 has done interviews taking on these questions, such as in his Steve Byk from December, if you’re curious. Obviously we all wish for more time, but all I know is that it’s a hell of a lot more than any other track is offering.

Can the CAWs still bet, but throttled to 6 bets / second past 1 MTP? This sounds great until you realize they can still bet discrete amounts for all exacta combos in a 10 horse race in 15 seconds. With a 30 second pool cycle time, what really changes?

@stoolpresidente @elio82 Without your bet it would have paid $110.60 per $1 bet vs $92.80. You won 16.8% of the pool. Nice hit - maybe some CAW saw your bet and tailed too.

How much should a 8-1 over 19-1 pay when the 3/2 and 2/1 don’t even come in the money? It paid 92-1. Seems wildly light. @elio82 hit it. Seems like 200-1 min. #Caws

An @OaklawnRacing hosted tournament was enough to get me out of my 3 year tournament semi-retirement. I was registered for the tournament before a free hotel room was announced for players. I’d call this an excellent move by Oaklawn to treat horseplayers well. Kudos @ZGillham!

@LogicRules55 @EJXD2 @turf_paradise @TurfwayPark I understand the premise of your statement. More money bet into the same carryover amount means the carryover $ is diluted across more winners. With the large jackpot bets, they usually handle right around the amount that makes the bet 0% takeout or neutral EV.

@eric_bialek @EJXD2 @turf_paradise @TurfwayPark Eric, plz tell me you understand the following. I've been screaming into the void for years. I'm insulted when tracks crow about pool size on mandatory payout days. This thread example uses real data ($1.2M+58 winners) vs. 4x ($4.8M+232 winners) x.com/LogicRules55/s…

Very interesting that both @turf_paradise & @TurfwayPark had mandatory payouts on their otherwise-jackpot pick 6s with similar carryovers: $241,933 for Turf Paradise & $236,879 for Turfway. Turf Paradise handled $1,071,491, across 392,931 combos while Turfway handled $930,405 across 672,000 combos. I.e. Turf Paradise did $2.72 per combo while Turfway did just $1.38. Guessing the real difference between the two is takeout. Turf Paradise has a 25.75% takeout and *my* rebate is 15.28% (no telling what Elite's is). Turfway has a 15% takeout and my rebate is 3.4%.

@xmattmillerx You nailed it Matt!

I’m not sure what this means for the long term future, but at the moment my thoughts are with the terrific people at Hawthorne who did their best over the years to provide for a good horseplayer experience. I’m thinking specifically of Jim, Emily, Rhonda, Dakota, John and Lisa.

@EJXD2 @turf_paradise @TurfwayPark Turfway $1 parlay was 47,752. P6 paid $41,105 for 20c. Yields 4.3x Turf Paradise $1 parlay was 11,115 P6 paid $8,793 for 20c. Yields 3.96x

@eric_bialek @turf_paradise @TurfwayPark I had tp at half that for the parlay. Let me recheck

Pat - I would love for you to ask this if you have time. Tracks aggressively market the Pick 5 but are a hard bet for the public (50% chance in each leg = 3% win chance) to win. 2025 data from Horseshoe Indiana shows that the P5 shows an increase in efficiency YoY between P5 payouts and win odds. Does the panel believe that tracks promoting / marketing a low churn bet like the Pick 5 is good for the long term health of the wagering public and the game or is this just an other feast for the sharks? I understand the CAW groups are some of the sharpest people with the best tech, evolving wagering habits, and deep bankrolls. I also understand that the Pick 5 and win pools are two completely separate wagering pools. I will also acknowledge the wagering landscape has changed and COVID played an impact as well. Some data to paint the picture. In 2022, Horseshoe Indiana switched from CDI to Monarch signal distribution. Monarch and Elite Turf Club both fall under the 1/ST family. Presumably Elite teams get better rebates on Monarch tracks. 2022, the year of the switch from CDI to Monarch, saw the highest level of correlation (R^2) between P5 payout and win parlay. An R^2 of 0.797 means these two value are strongly correlated. A real life example of 0.797 R^2 would be a car's engine size to consumption. In 2023, an early P5 was added. Early P5 has historically had smaller fields, wagers are placed before any single race is ran that day (to see things like bias, hot jocks, etc.), and there are no will pays for the race. In layman's terms - the early pick 5 has more unknown variables when bets are placed. 2025 saw the highest level of correlation between the early P5 payout and win parlay. The sharpest win money that sets the final win odds comes in late and presumably has a high % of CAW money. With high correlation between final win odds and P5 payouts, it can be presumed that CAW teams have a domineering role in these pools that are marketed heavily to the general public. So I guess to my original point, it seems like the switch to Monarch has made the wager more efficient recently. People have enjoyed wagers like the Pick 5 and Pick 6 due to the high variance associated with the wager which can lead to large payouts. Would the marketing dollars spent on the P5 be better spent things to increase churn like lower takeout, penny breakage, seeded pools, better morning lines, etc?

@eric_bialek Do you have data to share or backup the claim or is it merely anecdotal? Either way, if that’s what you feel, that’s the reality to you. It’s fair.

I'm very much looking forward to moderating this panel on the health of racing's wagering space, particularly as it relates to CAWs. A lot of strong opinons, I'm sure. What are some questions you'd like to see answered? x.com/UA_RTIP/status…

@ScatoniSureShot @PatCummingsNTA @californiapick4 Exactly - we can go all tin foil hat conspiracy theory if we want, but if I had to guess they have access to a lot more than we know of.

@eric_bialek @PatCummingsNTA This is the biggest thing that most are not talking about. "Information for me but not for thee!" We don't have access to pool data that others have. Btw: the tri probable tool was not reimplemented after the BC for the rest of the DMR fall meet. @californiapick4

@PatCummingsNTA Handle data is easy. I’ll try and get something to you on pick x bets before Weds.

@PatCummingsNTA I guess the question is more of did Elite have access to the probables? NYRA had them briefly on XB in 2020 (I think this was still Amtote), but XB took them down pre switch to United. Can either Scott or David address what tracks / bets have probables for CAW?

@eric_bialek In this session? Seems like a question for…BC, DMR or AmTote, no?

The Juice Man

@EJXD2 Oaklawn

@eric_bialek I wonder which track is most optimal to try this?

The most interesting thing to me about the CAW situation is not one track—big or small, slots subsidized or not—has tried any sort of promotion on a full card that locks them out completely. I’m guessing the primary reasons for this are 1. They’re making so much money from CAW they don’t want to risk losing it—even for a day, & 2. If players saw the difference in results even from just one day free of CAW it might inform them not to play at all going forward.