stone cold ape

the game of life has many layers. at some point money doesn't matter much anymore. and the only price to pay for the win is your attention. you get your mind jacked by presence. then winning becomes effortless.

@hansolar21 true for oil, not for crypto yet

Dips are for buying

@GavMcCracken they have other options to load the Fujairah pipeline

Looks like a new black swan just dropped Oil leak and lack of flaring. Could be a significant supply disruption.

@GavMcCracken not that bullish for oil, as freight rates will benefit the most

Tell me you're a guy that's worked his whole life at a desk and never gone out and lived in the real world. The barnacles require VLCCs to be dry docked. Good luck with that.

@michaeljmcnair hypersonic missiles

A buried pipeline is a terrible target. First of all, being buried protects it. Theoretically a direct hit from a big enough warhead could damage it (but still safe from drones) but the reason it’s a terrible target is much more than just it being buried. It’s a linear, distributed target. You can’t disable a hundred mile long pipeline with 1 or even numerous strikes. Even if you theoretically damage a short segment with a very expensive ballistic missile/warhead, the repair time and cost is relatively small. They repair ruptured segments of pipeline in routine maintenance all the time. So a hit would be a days long outage on a small section. Third, you have to find and hit a meter wide, invisible target, underground with a precision guided a multi-million dollar precision guided missile just to have a chance to damage it. The vulnerability is the above ground nodes, like pump stations and the Fujairah terminal. But the ability to defend small, fixed, high value targets will evolve even more rapidly than the SoH mitigation. Today this is a big problem. And mostly bc the cost exchange is so upside down (a $3M interceptor to kill a $30k drone), and the real constraint isn’t the hit rate as much as it is the magazine depth. Irans strategy has been to use persistent strikes to drain the interceptor stocks. But that changes in two years. And the main reason is directed energy weapons. We already have 30kw lasers with an effectively unlimited magazine. Right now it’s just power limited but they’re scaling to the 50-300kw, plus high power microwave built for drone swarms. That would free Patriot/THAAD to focus on handling the ballistic threats (already more than effective enough to defend a small number of high value targets) instead of just wasting them on Shaheds. And a small fixed node is ideal for lasers bc the power and cooling problems aren’t as big of an issue. But when I think bigger picture, it’s clear that the entire world just got a wakeup call and is now pouring money into this. And Iran isn’t just threatening the US, it’s threatening the world. So when I think about what the Iran threat looks like in 2 yrs, I see the combined and ballooning defense/R&D budgets of the US, the Gulf, and everyone else who watched Hormuz close, all racing toward the same fix…against an Iran that’s been significantly degraded and is funding its side alone. That’s an arms race Iran loses by a mile.

Iran has locked itself into only bad options. Its leverage was always the ability to close Hormuz. But now that they actually pulled that lever, they’ve made the risk real and incentivized the rest of the world to throw money at workarounds that will eventually degrade that leverage. According my colleagues recent meetings in Dubai, the UAE, for ex, is building out its crude pipelines and will be able to completely avoid the strait in 24 months for oil exports. Remember nobody building the off ramps has an incentive to advertise this so the public narrative understates the real magnitude and timeline. So for the US the details of any current deal matter less than people think. The US doesn’t need all of its asks granted in this deal. It just needs a deal that 1) reopens the strait and 2) time. Time for the GCC to build bypass capacity, rebuild inventories, pull forward shale and other non-Hormuz supply. Time to turn an Iranian closure from a global hostage situation into a manageable disruption. And as soon as that happens the US can force Iran back to the negotiating table but with a dramatically different leverage position. Today the US can’t destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure bc the repercussions are so high. But once the world has built Hormuz chokepoint workarounds, that price collapses and every option the US has held back becomes a realistic option. Iran must know this. But the problem is what can they really do about it? Keeping the strait closed might hurt the US and the rest of the world but it does nothing to secure the regime’s long term survival. In fact, it hurts it. What guarantees can they get that keep that situation from happening? In other words, Iran can cause pain but they don’t have any options that ensure the regime’s long term survival.

@xydotdot crypto market has some real advantages over the trad market other that just access

Sex is cool, but have you tried countering your own bias? From a contrarian to all the .hl’s out there, with love.... One of Hype’s biggest advantages was the regulatory gap around perps. Because perps were not regulated, Hype could offer them to the whole world, including Americans using VPNs, while facing very little competition. So the user had to go to Hype to access perps, instead of perps meeting the user inside the platforms they already trusted. That is a huge difference. The moment perps become regulated, the product starts moving from protocol-native access to distribution-native access. Coinbase, Hood, Kalshi, and every other regulated front door can now bring perps to the user with less friction & more trust. At this point, perps stop being exotic. They become another financial product competing on access, liquidity, UX, brand, and distribution. The product may still be insanely powerful.....I actually think it will be. Perps will probably get the world hooked, because there is no escape from hypergamblification. But mass adoption will not happen thru native wallets, bridges, and protocol risk. It will happen because perps show up inside the apps where users already hold money, trade assets, and trust the interface. So the question you need to ask yourself is..... does Hype have the best horse in that race? And for the .hl's saying Hype becomes the backend for institutions, I don't think so.... Institutions do not usually rent the black market’s infrastructure once the product becomes legal. Counterparty risk should be avoided at all costs. Don’t believe me? Look at cartels. They are not moving marijuana like they used to. Why? PS: this one is funny, because .hl’s are indeed a cartel.

@CommodMkt @MJazanovich @Amena__Bakr But UAE and Saudi can use the safe passage near the Iranian coast, as long as it doesn't come with a toll, right?

Assuming you had a deal and could overcome all of the issues with mine sweeps, insurance and freedom of navigation, I agree with Amena on that timeline, Saudi may even be a little faster than UAE; however, a few things to keep in mind: 1) The uncertainty around future closures needs to be addressed before anyone in their right mind would bring another ship in there - lets remember BAM traffic is still down 60%. 2) In the off chance they get this done in the next 60 days (the mine sweeps alone will likely take 2 months min), the seasonality between 2q and 3q swings by more than 5 mb/d absorbing most of the 4.5 mb/d of shut in Saudi/UAE production, having little effect on the observed balance.

Once the strait opens we’ll find out the true extent of the damage caused by the war on the Gulf’s energy infrastructure. I’m expecting a fast recovery in production from Saudi Arabia and the UAE (within 3-4 weeks), other countries will take months to recover. #GCC #OOTT

@brain_jackel app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/w…

@fortaellinger Can you share some of your short king

@devjoshstevens @shayne_coplan @MatthewModabber @HereComesKumar @williamlegate done, ty!

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hey everyone my latest Polymarket win ($1M gross, $600K net) is being processed. the market has been resolved, but I’m still unable to claim my winnings. i hope Polymarket sorts this out quickly

@devjoshstevens @shayne_coplan @MatthewModabber @HereComesKumar @williamlegate nope :( same issue

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HE HAS 200 FOLLOWERS - BUT MADE $2 MILLION ON POLYMARKET Nobody knows about Polymarket top predictor @fortaellinger. But he made $2 MILLION on Polymarket in lifetime PnL. His biggest trades? The 2024 election, and the Russia/Ukraine ceasefire. Will his winning streak continue?

@jords good advice, but not for the next few months oil shock is coming

if you've got coins you think go much higher in the future then just wait don't sell good coins unless you think the top is in in an up only market the only way to lose is leverage or trying to buy back lower

@dezgoldie so far

@gaxrav it's a sign of low agency

getting ragebaited is a low IQ sign.

@piersmorgan maybe he meant the american civilization

This is a brazen pre-admission of genocide against the Iranian people, which would obviously be a war crime. Madness.

@astro__magic banger

reality will eventually hit the order books in 1 candle

@zerohedge would be a shame if yanbu gets blown up

Saudi oil exports through Yanbu terminal

@notthreadguy @DeepDishEnjoyer man, never on earth I could think i will be subscribed to you banger after banger

@DeepDishEnjoyer is there something else i can long man this trade is driving me insane can we just buy gold or something

> oil down 1% on the news