Jan Dutton

Here is a map showing the predicted 2026 first corn planting date for each state, based on a state-level median regression estimate. Several southern states may already have recorded their first non-zero USDA corn planting progress report date. Over the next several weeks, most remaining corn-reporting states are projected to reach their first corn planting date. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Plant2026

@AgWxMan1 You inspired.

@jfd118 i'll show the next plot once I get the data for this week's.

Latest EIA storage...right online, +3.7 BCF tight roughly.

@AgWxMan1 Got it. Thx.

@jfd118 Deviation from my linear regression.

Daily Niño3.4 SST anomaly: 0.00 The transition is under way. However, the relative index (rNiño3.4) still has some distance to go before reaching neutral.

Recent market commentary framed excessive rain as a key issue for Brazil soybeans. Our production-weighted analysis suggests a different broader picture. Using the Point-in-Time Weather Forecast API, the attached animation shows Brazil soybean production-weighted cumulative precipitation, expressed as a percent of normal, from January 1 through March 8 for each year from 2010 to 2026. In the chart, 2025 is shown in orange, while the animated red line follows 2026 against the historical range. Through March 8, 2026 ranks as the driest January 1 to March 8 period in our dataset going back to 2010 on a production-weighted basis. At the national scale, that points to dryness being the more dominant signal rather than excessive rain. For grain traders, the implication is straightforward: if the market remains focused on a broad wet-weather narrative, it may understate the supply risk tied to drier conditions across Brazil’s most important soybean-producing areas. We are confident in our data sources and analytics. Who do you believe? #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Brazil #Soybeans #Yield #Production #Rain #Drought

We will be at the @NGFA 130th annual convention on March 22-24 in Nashville, TN! Stop by Booth #105 and meet Joshua Nagelberg to see how your team can block out the “noise” of social media speculation about yield and focus on objective weather analytics. We’ll be demonstrating how trading desks use CropProphet to remove the guesswork of estimating weather’s impact on crops. Feel free to stop by the booth or set a time to meet with me while you’re there: meetings.hubspot.com/josh-nagelberg… #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #NGFA #Corn #Soybeans #Grain #Grains

@CropProphet This is a really great post.

This DJF ranks as the driest on record across US winter wheat growing areas. This analysis answers the question: How does DJF precipitation for US winter wheat impact final winter wheat yield? The attached visualization compares US winter wheat percent yield deviation from trend against US winter wheat production-weighted DJF precipitation. The fitted relationship slopes upward, indicating that below-normal DJF precipitation is historically associated with below-trend winter wheat yields. The vertical blue line highlights this year’s DJF precipitation value on the x-axis. Using our Point-in-Time Weather Forecast API, the 2026 DJF US winter wheat production-weighted precipitation is 69.6% of normal, which is the lowest value in the historical record in this dataset and signals elevated risk of a below-trend yield outcome. What is the impact? • When DJF is dry, subsoil moisture recharge is often limited, which increases the probability of spring moisture stress and reduces yield potential. • Timing matters: When DJF precipitation runs below normal, final US winter wheat yields have historically been negatively impacted relative to trend. • For grain traders, the practical impact is higher uncertainty around winter wheat yield outcomes, which can translate into more weather driven market volatility as forecasts and observations update. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #WinterWheat #Yield #Wheat #Weather #Production #Precipitation

There’s growing attention on what a transition from La Niña toward El Niño could mean for Argentina’s rainfall heading into late summer and early autumn. Using the @WorldClimateSvc seasonal index analog tool shown in the attached graphic, we looked at past years in January-March where ENSO started negative and then trended more positive over the following three months (February-April). In those analog years, February to April precipitation over much of Argentina shows a lower likelihood of above normal outcomes, implying the odds tilt more toward below normal rainfall during this window. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Argentina #Corn #Soybeans #Weather #ENSO

Google's WeatherNext2 model is well ahead of not only ECMWF IFS but also AIFS-ENS. Extremely impressive medium-range performance in 2025 realtime forecasts. Available for experimental inter-model comparison on our platform now.

I’m in State College now. It’s definitely cold.

Watch the high latitudes adjust as the EC46 gets to grips with the magnitude of the tropical Pacific forcing this month.

@TravisKoshko Good one!

If you like snow like ESPN likes the SEC, then you'll be happy to hear there could be some tomorrow, especially south and west of Charlottesville. Details to come...

@BeyCohen @WorldClimateSvc Alas, we don't offer a consumer/amateur level subscription.

Quite excited about this: MJO forecast from the AIFS-ENS, including an in-house 28-day extension. Preliminary skill results are *very* interesting. Available soon to customers.

@BeyCohen @WorldClimateSvc We appreciate your advice. The subscription model kicked in when Prescient Weather was started in 2009. Since that time, we've steadily grown the World Climate Service (our product) user base amongst meteorologists on commodity trading desks around the world.

How have the Monitor de Secas classifications evolved from September to the October release? There has been an expansion of drought conditions in eastern and southeastern Brazil since the September release. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Brazil #Drought

The abnormally to extremely dry conditions across eastern Brazil have resulted in slower-than-normal soybean planting progress. Analyze the impact of weather on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet #oatt #AgWX #AgWeather #Soybeans #Brazil

For months the seasonal models have been calling for a weak Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex in early winter. With documented skill, this was a high-confidence forecast, and it's about to play out in the coming weeks. Hats off to the @CopernicusECMWF C3S project.