jack miller ⚜️

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jack miller ⚜️

jack miller ⚜️

@john_iller

crypto fund manager for 8 years. currently thinking about what’s next

Chicago, IL เข้าร่วม Ağustos 2013
458 กำลังติดตาม2.2K ผู้ติดตาม
ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
A personal update, stepping back but not out After 8+ years managing Cosimo Capital, I’m stepping back from day to day portfolio management but still a partner and still excited for Cosimo’s next chapter Navigating crypto winters, face melting bull markets, black swans like Bitcoin dropping 50% in a day during COVID (Luke called me PUMPED UP and said THIS IS OUR MOMENT and it was) taught me more about life, markets, and myself than I ever could have imagined At times getting a crypto fund off the ground was a grind but I lived for it. All the all nighters debugging code or mining rigs, protocol launches in the middle of the night, or reading 4chan/twitter/Discord threads until your eyes bleed... A big part of our edge has been love of the game Some other things I'm proud of - Early DeFi/gaming thesis that crushed - Predicted Tezos supply shock before XTZ did multiples - NFT fund (Pudgies + Miladys) great timing - Top miner on multiple Bittensor subnets I’d like to share more thoughts soon. Still investing, advising, looking for new ideas, and enjoying the summer DMs are open. Hit me up if you want to chat
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@DustinGouker every market is technically an assassination market but some are more assassination market than others
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Dustin Gouker
Dustin Gouker@DustinGouker·
Here is at least one reason why a pilot release market shouldn’t be listed. Someone has a pilot hostage, and announces they would release him. Odds go up of release. Clean wallets start betting “no.” … That would probably be it for the prediction markets sector.
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CL
CL@CL207·
idk why the hormuz crisis exists, if you always spend 20$ at the gas station, then the gas always costs 20$
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@PalmyrPar piracy introduces shadow competition in theory adds accountability which improves the product in practice, if noticed at all, instead response is legal crackdown
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☀️AliquisNovus☀️
HBO Max be like "you're streaming on too many devices!!!!!" like I don't have the easiest pirating alternative ever. Like ok man I tried to do it nice and legal and you still wanna fuck the consumer over, guess I'll steal your shit. Great job dude you're doing fantastic.
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Dustin Gouker
Dustin Gouker@DustinGouker·
Yeah man let players hedge risk about their on-field outcomes. Definitely do that. Please.
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
drives me nuts about Solana DeFi that hardware wallets require Blind Signing or just say "Unrecognized format" what's the point of secure hardware if you can't verify on the device itself genuine pearl clutching moment when i discovered people actually do this
DBCrypto@DBCrypt0

Drift Protocol just released their thread on the $280 million hack It's worse than anyone thought too There was no code exploit. It wasn’t a flash loan. It wasn’t even a traditional key theft. Solana has a feature called "durable nonces" that lets you sign a transaction today but execute it days or weeks later Sound familiar EVM critics? 😏 Think of it like writing a signed check and leaving it in someone's drawer until they decide to cash it. The attacker used this to build a time bomb inside Drift's own governance system. So I was wrong and Solana’s architecture did in fact play a role in this exploit occurring. Similar to how a hacker exploits approvals on EVM chains. Here's how it played out: March 23: The attacker sets up four of these delayed-execution accounts. Two are tied to real Drift Security Council members and two belong to the attacker. At some point, the attacker tricks two of Drift's five council members into signing transactions they didn't fully understand. Blind signing is something I have called out a lot and it is a major issue with many of these chains Drift calls it "transaction misrepresentation” 🤨 But in reality they were socially engineered into signing their own robbery Those signatures sat dormant for nine days! March 27: Drift rotates its security council. New members, fresh setup. Doesn't matter. The attacker compromises two of the five new signers too. April 1: Drift runs a routine test transaction. Sixty seconds later, the attacker cashes those pre-signed checks. Two transactions, four Solana slots apart. Full admin control. Every withdrawal limit removed. Every vault drained. $280 million. Gone. Two out of five signatures is all it took 🤦‍♂️ But also clearly some major planning and patience for this elaborate attack Blind signing Durable nonces which function similarly to approvals Poor key management Insecure infrastructure Everything worked as it was designed to work and this was just an incredibly well orchestrated and thought out attack

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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
people snidely say "regulatory arbitrage" as if that doesn't solve a huge problem
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@thiccyth0t felt this viscerally in the 2021 bull i remember making am intentionally provocative hot take on a panel and people nodded reverently like i said something profound knew immediately something was seriously distorted
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thiccy
thiccy@thiccyth0t·
The best part of accumulating wealth is that you can start saying increasingly insane things and people begin treating them as insight instead of retardation
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@0xz80 prediction markets are the least reliable measure of probability except for all the others
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z80.wei 👌☀️👌
dan prob won’t see this but interested in discussing this with anyone who spends time thinking about these things why do people believe consensus opinion is a reliable measure of probability?
Dan Robinson@danrobinson

Suppose I want to pay ~$100-500 to subsidize a prediction market on a specific question I have, with the goal of getting as accurate a probability estimate as possible. What is the best turnkey way for me to do that today?

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Kadan🇻🇦
Kadan🇻🇦@__kadan__·
Brushing up on some basketball rules. Kind of an obscure but interesting one here.
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Rob Pizzola
Rob Pizzola@robpizzola·
Instead of reading another AI generated baseball betting thread I'll save you the time. The only thing that matters is price. You can handicap for hours but if it's already baked into the line you didn't find anything. Learn to price or learn to lose.
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@RayFernando1337 he undermined his own point by explicitly tell Claude to copy the original instead of building it himself from scratch
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Ray Fernando
Ray Fernando@RayFernando1337·
This guy rage coded a $199 app in less than an hour and cooked the OP.
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@shiri_shh i wanted to build a service where you can order shade with like drones holding up a big sunblocking sheet boy did i miss the mark obviously sunlight is the better one
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shirish
shirish@shiri_shh·
This startup lets you ORDER SUNLIGHT from space to your exact location in 30 seconds 😭
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@0xNairolf a law firm offered our fund the reverse deal - pay in BTC and if it goes down we had to pay more to "top up" possibly the worst deal offered to anyone ever
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
sorry to inform the haters but total stablecoin market cap hit another all-time high
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@raw_avocado i remember once a bug in an altcoin project where the brainwallet/novelty wallet generator used dangerously low entropy and someone brute forced all the private keys generated by that app and took all the coins
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Alex Waltz
Alex Waltz@raw_avocado·
4 BTC lost using Brain wallet. "The pass phrase was a line from an obscure poem in Afrikaans"
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Jebus
Jebus@Jebus·
the bottom, but its just 9 months of sideways between 55k and 65k
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jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@MaxResnick relies on the assumption that lying or stress from lying manifests physically in the body ironically it does if you believe in the polygraph but not if you don't
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Max Resnick
Max Resnick@MaxResnick·
Suppose you had a dataset of 100,000 polygraph tests with video and audio recordings as well as the polygraph machine results. You could theoretically train a lie detecting AI...
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jack miller ⚜️ รีทวีตแล้ว
jack miller ⚜️
jack miller ⚜️@john_iller·
@scheminglunatic as a kid i tagged along with my dad to a conference in Austin. saw Dijkstra give a talk people were hyping up this legendary computer guy, thanking him in his talk he bragged about never using computers and talked about fountains pens for 15 minutes lil me was so confused
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