戲水渔

蓝V互关

文章內容提出： 如果 HBM（High Bandwidth Memory，高頻寬記憶體） 持續成為 AI 推理（inference）的主要瓶頸 Micron（$MU）有望在 6-12 個月內 從目前約 1 兆美元 市值 快速逼近 Meta 的 1.3-1.4 兆美元。 為什麼 HBM 如此關鍵？ 每次 AI 推理都需要 HBM： 不像訓練主要靠 GPU，推理過程高度依賴記憶體。 成本暴增：HBM 已讓成本 of goods 上升 5 倍。 結構性優勢：生產 HBM 的公司， 會獲得類似 GPU 廠商（NVIDIA） 的定價權與高毛利， 但市場目前尚未完全將此 HBM 敘事計入 $MU 估值 → 存在明顯低估。 podcastalpha.substack.com/p/aravind-srin…

•NVIDIA halved SOCAMM low-power CPU memory from 192GB to 96GB in next-gen AI servers amid tight supply. •HBM GPU memory remained untouched while market swung on shortage signals. •Micron pushes more memory for faster KV cache and inference performance. •NVIDIA redesigned server for lowest cost and power instead of adding more. •Buyer optimized memory placement over seller's "more is better" advice.

NVIDIA下一代AI服务器将CPU侧低功耗内存 SOCAMM从192GB减半至96GB， 主要因三星、SK海力士、美光 三家供应商2027年供应能力仅达需求60%， HBM内存未受影响。 消息引发内存股先跌后涨， 市场对AI内存需求是“冷却” 还是“短缺加剧”意见分歧， 而NVIDIA与Micron在官方材料中 发出相反信号。 Micron强调增加该内存可提升 AI推理KV cache性能 NVIDIA却选择减量 实际是将内存工作负载转移 至其他层级以优化成本和功耗。

@jaimesolis 感覺估值偏高

@kirkpaper 市值突破只是表面，真正看点是机构持仓比例在悄悄上升。

$SPCX 刚刚在隔夜交易时段触及 3 万亿美元的市值

氧化鈰（cerium oxide）拋光材料長期被中國（尤其是北方稀土等企業）主導， 日本高度依賴。 近年地緣緊張下，中國多次以稀土作為籌碼 （2025-2026年對日出口管制事件便是例證）， 這讓日本企業每年都得「看臉色」。 Noritake的水基拋光墊把稀土使用 量大幅壓低（據報導可減9成）， 等於把關鍵工序從中國政策風險中「解耦」， 對AI玻璃基板（Glass Core Substrate） 擴產極為關鍵。

🚀 3万亿成交额史诗级巨浪！资金围绕“SpaceX上市 + 苹果AI终端 + AI算力中报”疯狂做多！ 周末重大公告+盘面抱团，当前最核心的**第一排龙头名单**梳理👇 🌟 一、 AI算力硬件：超级双子星（CPO光模块） 承接全市场最恐怖流动性，机构、量化和外资绝对本币！ 🟢 **中际旭创 (300308)** * **龙头地位**：全球光模块绝对王者，单日成交额冲破 **400亿元** 狂飙至A股第一。 * **核心逻辑**：高端800G/1.6T光模块出货量全球封神，深度绑定海外科技巨头。 🟢 **新易盛 (300502)** * **龙头地位**：高弹性光模块先锋，单日成交超 **310亿元** 位列A股第二。 * **核心逻辑**：主力资金百亿级“认错式”疯狂回补，率先拉出逼空主升浪。 🌟 二、 SpaceX与苹果链共振：AI PCB与光芯片 SpaceX市值突围与苹果换机潮双重映射，PCB及上游覆铜板（CCL）走向产业通胀！ 🔴 **大族激光 (002008)** —— *新晋人气总龙头* * **龙头地位**：AI PCB赛道名副其实的 **“顶级卖铲人”**。今日斩获 **16.03亿元** 主力净流入高居第一，强封涨停，年内暴涨超190%。 * **核心逻辑**：子公司大族数控在高阶多层板、HDI、SLP专用设备全工序打通，技术延伸至**玻璃基板微孔加工**等先进封装核心领域，获公募顶流基金一路抬轿。 🔴 **东山精密 (002384)** —— *容量核心旗舰* * **龙头地位**：全球第一大边缘AI设备PCB供应商、第二大软板（FPC）巨头，总市值挺进 **4500亿元** 梯队。 * **核心逻辑**：**周二晚发布“王炸”公告**，拟斥资 **12亿美元（约87亿人民币）** 扩产常州等地的光芯片及光模块项目！子公司索尔思光电具备100G/200G光芯片量产能力，巨额扩产直接证明下游订单彻底爆单。 🌟 三、 自主可控底座：国产算力晶圆与先进制程 国家“十五五”硬预算支撑的钢铁主线！ 🔵 **寒武纪 (688256)** * **龙头地位**：纯手性国产AI算力芯片第一股，单日成交额突破 **200亿元**。 * **核心逻辑**：稀缺通用型AI处理器架构，在算力国产化替代、大模型本土落地中承接最硬政策与市场溢价。 🔵 **海光信息 (688041)** * **龙头地位**：国产高端CPU/DCU中流砥柱。 * **核心逻辑**：中报业绩扎实，国家队、大型国企信创采购“硬预算”第一受益者，科技繁荣期走趋势的防御兼进攻大纛。 🌟 四、 传统阵营的另类龙头：特高压与电力防御 红利板块分化中走出独立行情的龙头！ ⚡ **中国西电 (601179)** * **龙头地位**：新型电网设备与特高压输变电设备龙头。 * **核心逻辑**：大宗商品走弱降低制造端成本；作为“十五五”新型电力系统建设核心骨干，完美承接传统红利中抽逃出来的防御大资金。 当前两市3.1万亿天量，市场不存在“缺钱”问题。操作上应把全部子弹锁死在 **大族激光、东山精密、中际旭创、新易盛** 组成的“光、电、板”绝对前排中，利用盘中急跌做高低切换，死守核心筹码。 #A股 #股票 #主力资金 #AI算力 #CPO光模块 #SpaceX概念 #苹果产业链 #大族激光 #东山精密

Chinese firms (e.g., Jushi) act as the aggressors. They have aggressively expanded capacity, benefited from lower energy costs, and recently outperformed Nittobo (日东纺) in stock performance. Japanese firms (e.g., Nittobo) are more defensive. They hold strong technological and pricing power but have been constrained by high energy costs and have not raised prices as aggressively. Key points on NVIDIA and supply chain interdependence: NVIDIA has made Q-cloth a required material for its upcoming Rubin platform. Chinese company FIBERHOME (菲利华, 300395) is in the NVIDIA certification process and is one of China’s leading Q-cloth producers. However, it (and the broader Chinese industry) still relies heavily on Japanese precision manufacturing equipment (e.g., from Shin-Etsu Chemical as the top player). This highlights the deeply intertwined nature of the semiconductor supply chain: “you are in me, I am in you.” Outlook for Nittobo and the sector: Nittobo’s catch-up potential hinges on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open, which could ease Japan’s energy bottlenecks (electronic cloth production is highly energy-intensive). If energy issues are resolved and Nittobo can confidently expand capacity and raise prices, it could see a strong rebound. In a peaceful East Asia environment, Chinese and Japanese companies together could maintain strong pricing power and profitability. The author notes that Murakami’s fund was smart to place some capacity in China to avoid Japan’s energy constraints. Overall, the post emphasizes that while the industry has great potential, geopolitical and energy risks remain critical variables.

目前就是炒地图 科技范围内高低切 最强赛道 极高阶CCL 特种高容MLCC 玻璃基板及设备 HBM材料 高速光模块 MPO/高密度连接器 高阶服务器PCB 先进封装 液冷散热系统 边缘端AI芯片 光缆

摩根士丹利将2027年AI资本支出预测上调至1.1万亿美元， 实际数字考虑SpaceX等公司后可能接近1.5万亿美元， 而AI推理收入预计达3000亿美元。 尽管支出收入比例表面较高，但推理业务毛利率达60-70%， 收入增长轨迹持续加速， 且35%支出用于未来模型训练而非当前收入生成。 专家和熊市观点长期低估AI发展速度， 该帖强调资本支出针对未来弹性需求， 并推广Milk Road Pro提供详细AI单位经济和投资论点分析。

Taiwanese optics leader Largan Precision is spending NT$650 million (approx. US$20 million) to purchase automation and glass solutions from Chinese laser equipment giant Han’s Laser. The equipment supports Largan’s push into TGV (Through Glass Via) technology for multilayer stacked optical components. Meanwhile, Chinese optics major Sunny Optical has upgraded its FAU (Fiber Array Unit) team to the level of a full research institute and is planning to establish a dedicated base in Singapore to deepen high-precision FAU R&D. Both Taiwanese and Chinese first-tier optics giants are now aggressively chasing FAU precision manufacturing as a major future growth driver. This trend is also expected to boost demand for upstream laser automation equipment.

$MU is a typical "forgotten winner" with outstanding cost performance in the current AI cycle. But the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term - if $MU continues to deliver more than expected, the valuation convergence is a likely event. Those who want to vote can pay attention to MU's HBM share and quarterly guidelines, while SpaceX is suitable for long-term believers.

@jukan05 韩国股市长期估值偏低，SK海力士虽然业绩爆炸性增长，但P/E、P/B仍远低于Micron等美股同行。

Korean Media: SK Hynix Preparing Massive $66.4 Billion Shareholder Return Program Following ADR Listing - Korean media report that SK Hynix is expected to announce a large-scale shareholder return program worth approximately $66.4 billion after its ADR listing. - To minimize dilution concerns and potential backlash from existing shareholders, the company has reportedly reduced the ADR offering size from 2.4% of outstanding shares to the low-2% range. - SK Hynix is expected to raise approximately KRW 40 trillion (about $26.5 billion) through the issuance of new shares as part of the ADR offering.

@yiqifacai AI光互联领域投资应当长线持有，供应链细分路线切换减少风险。

CPO与NPO的共性需求是光引擎、CW光源、无源器件、测试设备、InP材料。 认识到这个就可以无视噪音，拿稳坐好。

@pizzapastamcd1 利好出尽

等沃什上课吧，如果伊朗真停战了，油价下跌了，沃什也不鹰派，那市场估计一直到下周五都没什么鬼故事了。

@Berlinger 这就是足球

i used to fear mamdani was too young to oversee a city like new york and now i realize our politicians should ... have energy? and stamina?

@yaboypabIo 拉布布

ngl i was faded lmao

@maid_Pelori 四脚朝天地落地猫

おばあちゃんから最高の連絡がきて最高の気分になる昼下がり

这两天没用心，努力不够立刻就体现了