
Kevin.Stacks
2K posts

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Some thoughts on $BTC being down during this historic stock bullmarket:
If $BTC is an emerging Store of Value for a digital first world, then it makes sense that it's selling off in order to fund the intelligence layer of the digital world.
IMO this is not $BTC breaking.
Capital that was stored in $BTC is now redirecting towards a new frontier. This makes complete sense.
Especially when you consider who the largest $BTC holders are. Who are the whales?
At a minimum they are individuals who understand the digital world, assymetries and world changing technologies.
AI is that next opportunity. The market is showing us that.
So what does this mean for $BTC? Capital is redirecting towards growth in AI. Capital does not to be stored right now, it needs to be used.
Although it's not what what any of us "Bitcoiners" want to hear, I think this is the most simplest high level explanation of what's happening.
How long will this last is not the right question IMO. Because timing these things is for forces beyond most of us.
The better question I think, is what is the role of $BTC on the other side of the build out of this digital world?
I think $BTC will emerge as the premiere store of value and pristine collateral of the digital age.
At some point the digital economy will begin storing capital in $BTC. And right now you can buy into that network at a $1.3T valuation.
Which raises an interesting question. How much will that network be worth when it fulfills it's true role?
This is the correct framing IMO.
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Some thoughts on $BTC being down during this historic stock bullmarket:
If $BTC is an emerging Store of Value for a digital first world, then it makes sense that it's selling off in order to fund the intelligence layer of the digital world.
IMO this is not $BTC breaking.
Capital that was stored in $BTC is now redirecting towards a new frontier. This makes complete sense.
Especially when you consider who the largest $BTC holders are. Who are the whales?
At a minimum they are individuals who understand the digital world, assymetries and world changing technologies.
AI is that next opportunity. The market is showing us that.
So what does this mean for $BTC? Capital is redirecting towards growth in AI. Capital does not to be stored right now, it needs to be used.
Although it's not what what any of us "Bitcoiners" want to hear, I think this is the most simplest high level explanation of what's happening.
How long will this last is not the right question IMO. Because timing these things is for forces beyond most of us.
The better question I think, is what is the role of $BTC on the other side of the build out of this digital world?
I think $BTC will emerge as the premiere store of value and pristine collateral of the digital age.
At some point the digital economy will begin storing capital in $BTC. And right now you can buy into that network at a $1.3T valuation.
Which raises an interesting question. How much will that network be worth when it fulfills it's true role?
This is the correct framing IMO.
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@layeredstacks I agree mate, my brain is telling me it won't pass to prepare for the worst... it would be the icing on the cake for a capitulation candle, something I've seen and come to expect at this point.
But I really do hope I'm wrong on that
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Do we think the Clarity Act will pass this year?
Markets are predicting 50/50... but I am dubious as to their reliability depending on trading volume.
Historically they have predicted outcomes well, but I think the signal is only clear in high volume bets, as it indicates large institutional/high net worth opinion.
Why would I trust the opinion of a load of $100 bets from retail? They know no better than you or I. If someone places a $10 million bet however, it catches my attention.
I'm torn, @scottmelker discussed this recently as mispriced and only a 5% chance.
I think they will struggle to get support from the Democrats to pass the line, given the ethical concerns relating to the Trump family holdings.
That being said, @SecScottBessent @SenLummis and many others are pushing this aggressively, @realDonaldTrump is keen to sign on July 4th... it is already significant date for America to give light to crypto. It would not be a good look if this failed.
What's everyone's thoughts on this one?
It could be a key even for capitulation or recovery, depending on the outcome.
Conor Kenny@conorfkenny
54% chance that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year. Pass it NOW or never!
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TX already acquired $BTC via $iBit. !$10M worth.
Clarity codifies the recognition of a new asset class into law. When was the last time our congress got together to pass a law recognizing and classifying a new asset?
Regardless, your entitled to your opinion. Mine stands and it's backed by real political fundamental shifts.
Not taking into account other developments such as Morgan Stanley launching their own proprietary $BTC ETF, it becoming there best launch of an ETF ever. Charles Schwab launching direct spot trading.
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@layeredstacks The strategic reserve is just a wallet where they hold confiscated BTC; No state let alone the country will spend to actually acquire BTC.
How will the passage of the clarity act help the price of BTC?
I think the upside was much bigger in 22 while the R/R today sucks.
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When $BTC crashed from $60k to under $20k, people bought in heavily because they still believed in the narratives of sound money, hedge against inflation, a digital gold.
Now when BTC drops to (insert your guess), the question is WHY would people buy it?
Which of those use-cases held up this cycle?
That is the elephant in the room.
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@Upinthesky123 @ElonTrades So that's the highest probable outcome in your opinion?
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@layeredstacks @ElonTrades The strategic bitcoin reserve will be holding assets worth cents. Trump’s Son get zero’d out and daddy will get pissed
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Portfolio mechanics could bring capital flows back to $BTC.
🤔
Flood@ThinkingUSD
Buying Bitcoin today is front running the forced diversification of a completely AI saturated equity market. With not one, not two, but three massive inclusion of 5 Trillion dollars of equity value into the index, diversification requires venturing out on the risk curve.
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I have to disagree. The risk for $BTC in 22 was far higher then it is today.
We now have a Strategic BTC reserve via executive order and proposed legislations to codify it into law.
We have strategic reserves passed on a state level in several states including TX.
We have Clarity Act in the works.
We have a pro BTC/Crypto SEC/CFTC.
All of this is on the political side, which was always one of BTCs greatest threats/risks.
BTC has never been less risky IMO.
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@layeredstacks That R/R gets worse each cycle.
And for people to believe it’ll go back to ATH’s (at least), they need a narrative to believe in.
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Everyone always posts about their gains.
Well, here’s a major L in my portfolio.
I’m down over six figures in my crypto portfolio from my all time high.
Mostly comprised of bitcoin:native and ethereum:native
But here’s the thing, I have a *very* long time horizon and believe in the investment.
So, I’ll just continue to cost average my positions.
Dips like this don’t bother me at all.

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@OqqZinSmAiMYItG Thank you for taking the time to read it, I appreciate it.
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Love him or hate him, the one thing I respect the most about @saylor is that he never hides during the down times.
A lot of us are sitting on uncomfortable paper lossses right now. Maybe we're getting dunked on by family/friends who we tried to orange pill in the past. Or even worse, we're getting calls from the ones who we did and are panicking now.
Now imagine what these days are like for arguably the face of BTC for mainstream media and even here on X.
Respect.
Michael Saylor@saylor
Four ideologies shape the Bitcoin community. Maximalists bring conviction. Capitalists bring integration. Technologists bring innovation. Fundamentalists bring preservation. Bitcoin reaches its full potential when these four forces work in harmony.
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This is my quant.
$BTC
Alex Miller@alexlmiller
if you zoom in far enough the bitcoin chart doesn't look too shabby
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