Joestar.G

I largely think of "crypto" as a failed asset class at this point. I've written about the causes multiple times. Mainly, most crypto assets are worthless, or have dreadful value accrual, and most founders have abused the lack of guardrails and dumped on people indiscriminately, or are outright scammers. On top of that we had the Memecoins SuperBullshitCycle, a trend that brought the worst out of people, and sucked everyone's souls & pockets dry. And then came the never-ending wave of DeFi hacks, which has dramatically increased since last April. This can seem contradictory, as adoption of "crypto" is surging: > Stablecoin adoption continues growing fast > Politicians in the US are openly pro crypto > Tradfi is looking at tokenizing everything > Usage of equities & commodities perps is exploding in offshore and DeFi exchanges > The US is in the early stages of adopting perps > Prediction markets are becoming part of everyone's daily lives These are more "blockchain" than "crypto", although there are some exceptions with a token in those fields, most of which have been performing very well in recent months. A few among those exceptions even distribute most revenue to holders via buybacks (Hyperliquid in particular), which is what every investor actually wants to see to be invested in a good business rather than a fleeting narrative. We also have the privacy category. The one old school crypto category that is not liquid diarrhea. The world needs private non-custodial stores of value. Crime in particular needs privacy, as proven by the DoJ confiscation of $15 billion in Bitcoin from Cambodia's pig butchering farms, legal filing for which was submitted on October 8, 2025 (coincidentally right before 10/10). Of course, everyone needs privacy, not just criminals, but crime flows are real, and large. The asset attracting the most flows in this niche is Zcash. Zcash's recent performance has been fascinating, as it has been trending higher with bitcoin trending lower, a sign of real reallocation among bitcoiners. Another crypto category that is not dead is the "AI" category, full of high flying, fundamentally lacking, narrative driven tokens. The standout exception is Venice, a private AI platform with growing users and revenue, whose tokens are directly backed by the business rather than a narrative. So one could say old "crypto" is a failed asset class, but from the ashes come new beginnings, and the new face of crypto is one heavily dominated by the needs of Tradfi, prediction markets, AI, and privacy. Crypto sucks. Long live crypto.

我跟你讲，以后就是模式币的天下，情绪meme 概念meme已经没人信了。

历史不会简单重复，但总在押韵：为什么我认为熊市还没走完？ ​ ​很多人看到 7.8 万就觉得牛回速归，但我建议你冷下心来，看看这五个足以让人脊背发凉的证据。现在的反弹，极大概率是针对去年 12.6 万大顶后的“最后诱多”。 ​1. 历史周期的“时间补齐”：底部还没到时间 ​从历史分形来看，比特币的减半周期逻辑非常严密。 ​分形对比： 回看 2021-2022 年，大顶之后的第一波暴跌伴随着一个强力的“次高点”反弹，随后才是真正腰斩再腰斩的阴跌。 ​时间线： 如果 2025 年 10 月的 126,200 是本轮大顶，按照 364 天的洗盘周期，真正的底部应该在 2026 年 10 月左右。现在的 5 月，仅仅是跌到底部路程的一半，时间还没补齐，筹码还没洗净。 ​2. 美联储的“权力真空”风险 ​就在本月（2026 年 5 月），鲍威尔的联储主席任期正式届满。 ​换届魔咒： 历史上，美联储主席更迭（如耶伦到鲍威尔）往往伴随着宏观政策的不确定性，这种“权力真空期”是机构最反感风险资产的时候。 ​政策转向： 尽管新主席提名人（如 Kevin Warsh）带有一定的亲加密色彩，但这种重大人事变动触发的市场震荡往往先杀杠杆，再谈未来。5 月的靴子没落地，牛市没基础。 ​3. BTC.D 与 USDT.D：资金在“避险”而非“进攻” ​BTC.D（占有率）： 比特币市值占比正在向 61% 的高点冲击，但 RSI 出现了明显的隐性看跌背离。 ​USDT.D（稳定币占有率）： 这是一个杀手锏。稳定币占比在低位横盘震荡太久了，根据走势图，它正在酝酿一次强势反弹——这意味着场内资金正在准备集体“换钱离场”。当大家都在持币观望时，谁来拉盘？ ​4. CME 缺口的“磁石效应” ​芝商所（CME）的期货缺口就像行情的回力标。 ​目前上方确实有一个 81,145 的小缺口，这解释了为什么最近价格在往上蹭，那是为了补缺口。 ​但是： 别忘了下方 60,000 甚至更低的位置，还留着那些令人不安的阴影区。一旦上方的“磁力”消失，回补下方的暴力下探将无可避免。 ​5. 最后的红色箭头：分形预演 ​我复刻了 2021 年和 2026 年的行情 ​绿色的上涨已经结束，两段红色的下行路径惊人相似。 ​目前的价格处于反弹高位，对应的是 2022 年大崩盘前的“最后一搏”。 ​预判： 6-7 月份可能会开启那根又粗又长的红色箭头。如果不跌破 60000 完成最后一洗，新一轮牛市根本无从谈起。 ​ 警惕现在的 7.8 万，是给你离场避险的机会，还是你以为的起飞点？我选择相信数据和周期，​保持空仓，耐心等待 7 月的“深坑”出现。

第一次小资金靠合约一天翻倍的，纪念一下。分仓果然舒服，没啥压力。