Macrodelics
31.3K posts
Macrodelics รีทวีตแล้ว
Bloomberg: “Blackrock Inc. slashed the value of a private loan to zero just three months after assessing it at 100 cents on the dollar, marking the second sudden wipeout to recently hit its private-credit division.”
Maybe it’s a trend.
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Macrodelics รีทวีตแล้ว
My latest favorite forward looking indicator in inflation is showing renewed disinflation in the next 6 months, with core cpi goods trending back down by mid-2026.
Yeah, I am surprised as well. But that is the data speaking.
The Fed can cut next year. And if this is true, markets pricing in too little rate cuts in 2026.
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Macrodelics รีทวีตแล้ว
The US 10-year yield has been in a downtrend since May (highlighted).
Now it looks more like a breakout.
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Macrodelics รีทวีตแล้ว
This is the article you should read today. Money quote
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion
Europe is under siege. Russia is threatening to conquer it. China is backing Russia. America is not coming to help. Europe has to make big changes and stand up for itself, or risk being carved up by other powers. noahpinion.blog/p/europe-is-un…
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Macrodelics รีทวีตแล้ว
2/5
The last time CPI had a similar rise to now (right arrow) was 1965 to 1973 (left arrow). The red part followed.
Two things to note.
* 1965 to 1973 is 8 years. The similar rise today took 5 years.
* January 1973, the stock market was also at an all-time high.
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$208 million wiped out: Yieldstreet investors rack up more losses as firm rebrands to Willow Wealth cnbc.com/2025/12/05/yie…
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Macrodelics รีทวีตแล้ว
Jan 31, 2023 - I tweet “Sell”
Banking crisis ensues and banks fail. There is panic and stocks fall.
Mar 13, 2023 - I tweet “This crisis could resolve very quickly. I am not seeing true danger here.”
March 30, 2023 - I tweet “I was wrong to say sell.”
/meme corrected
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Macrodelics รีทวีตแล้ว
@junkbondinvest Nothing matters because there will be bailouts if something should happen.
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Life insurers now hold $2.5T in illiquid assets (37% of total)
> Up from 31% a decade ago
> Higher than pre-2008 levels
> Capital buffers at two-decade lows
> ST borrowing up 82% to $400B
Investing retirement savings in illiquids while running thinner margins...
Source: Bloomberg
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Macrodelics รีทวีตแล้ว
Terminator 2 is James Cameron’s best film. It’s not Titanic, it’s not Avatar, and it’s not Aliens- although all amazing films. Oscars be damned, I’m not sure how Cameron could’ve made a better film. Every inch of this movie is perfect- I wouldn’t change a thing. Love to Big Jim.
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🚨 Regional banks now hold almost one-third of all U.S. commercial mortgages and a majority of non-owner-occupied CRE, and “latent distress” is about 4X larger than what current delinquency rates imply.🧵
CRE: ~ $4.8 T
Consumer debt: $5.58T
(auto: $1.66T, Student loan: $1.65 T)
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