Mike Paleokrassas
542 posts
Bitcoin bear markets don’t bottom when there is still hope, they bottom when there is no hope.
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@nic_carter Seems like maybe the quantum one is the only one that will take any kind of work?
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Very good post
People looking for a single catalyst are engaging in a kind of wishful thinking conditioned on FTX
[bad thing] happened, so it must be monocausal. If only we could identify the culprit, we would have nothing left to worry about
Except it’s a constellation of bad things, some less resolvable than others
Alex Krüger@krugermacro
What went wrong with crypto 1. 10/10 slaughter (will I get sued if I mention Binance?). 2. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) hangover. 3. Reversed flows from crime syndicates: major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October. 4. Quantum fears (real). 5. Enormous AI opportunities (opportunity cost): - capital pivoting to AI - talent pivoting to AI - miners pivoting to AI 6. Perception of Bitcoin as American: few Chinese buyers, who had been behind the metals uptrend in large numbers. 7. The Swamp & Institutions taking over, overcrowding OGs and retail - Pivot from Cypherpunk/Rebel tech to ETF tech. - Crypto used to be for misfits & geniuses, now it's a line item in a 401k. 8. Trump association and political risks: what happens once Democrats are back? 9. Minimal innovation (since Hyperliquid). 10. Solana casino massacre (thank Pump Fun & the Memecoin Supercycle). 11. Oversupply of coins: there are 29.91 million cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap. 12. Almost every coin in the top 200 is grossly overvalued and has had a broken chart for a while. 13. Never ending array of token launches that pump then dump to oblivion where only insiders profit. 14. Dead digital gold narrative. 15. Several categories of equities imploding (e.g. Software). That killed momentum. With sellers dumping more aggressively than usual on every pump, and buyers not showing up to buy the dips as much any longer. And then came the Warsh nomination (beating Hassett and Rieder), and the market suddenly became deeply aware that Warsh is a strong advocate of a small balance sheet: goodbye Queantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) dreams, hello Quantitative Tightening (QT) fears. That is what happened. Please note this post is strictly descriptive, it tells you what happened, in the past. Prices have already crashed. Several metrics such as volume, liquidations, implied volatility and options skew indicate that a local bottom is likely in.
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@ZeroHedge_ @VinnyLingham @Tradingalpha_ I don’t think there are too many people who think we are still in a bull market. Mostly people who think we are getting closer to the end of the bear?
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If you still think this is a $BTC bull market I can't help you.
Everyone was giving Vinny crap too the whole way down. If people only listened half as much as they argued..
Vinny Lingham@VinnyLingham
I have high conviction that this is a dead cat bounce, and we’re officially in a Bitcoin bear market cycle. Would love to hear thoughts from @ZeroHedge_ @CalebFranzen
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@JCBarraza2 @PeterLBrandt This is a stylized candlestick chart from Peter Brandt illustrating bearish technical patterns in a downtrend, such as descending triangles and a channel, highlighting the clear setups in the current bear market.
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The clarity of patterns in this bear market has been simply delicious
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The real question now is : Can Michael Saylor continue to prop up the Bitcoin price without sinking the MSTR common stock price? I’m betting no.
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The best possible thing for the long-term health of the crypto ecosystem would be to bleed out again in 26 like we did in 25.
The "good" news is, it looks like that's prob gonna happen. Anyone telling you different is a bagholder talking their book.
Crypto not done resetting.
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Crypto treasury companies must represent the shortest and most retarded bubble in history.
Only people who made money there are the bankers, management, prior holders .. and those who cheated and front-run the announcements.
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What would you guys do to this bar? Need some inspiration.
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trumps memecoin permanently brain damaged a healthy chunk of traders heads, who now at best subconsciously or worst genuinely, still somehow believe that similar outcomes are possible for infinitely less relevant events
this in turn awoke a cohort of a different breed of astute players who smelled this neurological rewiring and swarmed. For example, this app called “Believe” for random ICOs is named BRILLIANTLY. An absolute surgical incision into the post-trumpcoin trader brain
anyways, a good litmus test for crudely self-diagnosing if your brain is doing relatively okay is if you didn’t think for even one second about actually buying kanye’s memecoin today
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@scottmelker @grimace85 @EdanYago @brucefenton This is nonsense. Gov and regulation are the same as it has always been. People are taking profits. That’s fine.
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@grimace85 @EdanYago @brucefenton Because they are libertarians and this version of Bitcoin isn’t what they signed up for. Cheering government and regulation and Blackrock. Might as well cash out those billions.
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I continue to ask my guests, “who’s selling Bitcoin?”
The answer from those who have been here since the beginning like @EdanYago and @brucefenton is always the same…
Early whales who were here for the freedom and libertarian ideals who have thrown in the towel because they see their community cheering the government and Wall Street.
It’s an entirely new ballgame now.
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I wanna start getting into conspiracy theories. Where’s a good place to start?
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@WhalePanda All the ETFs are delta neutral flow. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to that
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Thought people were saying the OTC desks were almost empty.
Saylor blew his billion from $106k to $110.5k in a couple of hours so now it is just bleeding out, even with ETFs buying 10x daily mined Bitcoin.
But sure there's no paper BTC, you're not allowed to talk about that.
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I’ve been going to the same local restaurant on the Upper East Side every Sunday night at the same time with my wife and daughter for the past few years.
Tonight and last Sunday, it has been DEAD empty.
I’m talking our table and 1-2 other tables.
The place has 14 tables.
It has been packed essentially every single Sunday since late 2021.
Something is clearly happening to the economy right now.
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@cmsholdings BTC ETFs the major driver IMO. But saylor obviously has been a big pull
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1. The cycle if you want to call it one in my mind seems definitely in retrospect driven by Saylor just moving BTC up and everything else getting back to where they were in 2021 which explains the angst in the market as Venture + retail has MAYBE gotten back to prev levels
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@EpsilonTheory You should probably sign off Twitter for a while
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“Excited to learn more.” JFC, Brian.
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrong
Excited to learn more. Still forming an opinion on asset allocation, but my current thinking is: 1. Just Bitcoin would probably be the best option - simplest, and clear story as successor to gold 2. If folks wanted more variety, you could do a market cap weighted index of crypto assets to keep it unbiased But probably option #1 is easiest
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