@AndreasSteno And how does China react to U.S. blowing up their oil infrastructure?
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🇺🇸 Tommy foking Shelby Trader 🇬🇧
4.6K posts
🇺🇸 Tommy foking Shelby Trader 🇬🇧
@mps820
I glorify God by trading options of high beta stocks. I like talking about economics, markets, stocks, financial instruments, and sports. #LGRW
United States เข้าร่วม Temmuz 2023
599 กำลังติดตาม480 ผู้ติดตาม
This is one of my favourite memes currently!
Read my guide on "How to trade Trump in 5 memes" below..
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno
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@FirstSquawk If it was necessary to take out Iran now, why didn’t he get authorization from congress?
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TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL:
THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA IS IN SERIOUS DISCUSSIONS WITH A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME TO END OUR MILITARY OPERATIONS IN IRAN. GREAT PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE BUT, IF FOR ANY REASON A DEAL IS NOT SHORTLY REACHED, WHICH IT PROBABLY WILL BE, AND IF THE HORMUZ STRAIT IS NOT IMMEDIATELY “OPEN FOR BUSINESS,” WE WILL CONCLUDE OUR LOVELY “STAY” IN IRAN BY BLOWING UP AND COMPLETELY OBLITERATING ALL OF THEIR ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTS, OIL WELLS AND KHARG ISLAND (AND POSSIBLY ALL DESALINIZATION PLANTS!), WHICH WE HAVE PURPOSEFULLY NOT YET “TOUCHED.” THIS WILL BE IN RETRIBUTION FOR OUR MANY SOLDIERS, AND OTHERS, THAT IRAN HAS BUTCHERED AND KILLED OVER THE OLD REGIME’S 47 YEAR “REIGN OF TERROR.” THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
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@damianplayer I hope so. My son is neurodivergent
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Palantir CEO, Alex Karp says only 2 types of people will survive the AI era..
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@ABC @SteveScalise if he was so sure that we needed the war to happen and there was good reason, why didn’t he go to congress for authorization?
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House Majority Leader Steve Scalise on one month of U.S. war with Iran:
“President Trump’s doing something that frankly Republican and Democrat presidents before him have thought about, contemplated, but President Trump’s the one who had the guts.” abcnews.link/4SXTED2
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@buitengebieden Delta airline pilots could learn a thing or two from that swan.
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Swans have one off the coolest landing technique ever.. 😊
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It's pretty cool we now get to see S&P500 futures trading over the weekend in real time on hyperliquid.
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@TradingThomas3 How were you alerted that we’d have a tradeable bottom at close?
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August 13th 2025, the day everything changed for me in trading…
You are one trade away from changing your life.
I’m up at 6am every single day preparing for the market and posting my real thoughts on X for free. I will never charge penny.
If you’re serious about financial freedom, follow along and hit the “❤️” I want to help you.
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If you're an options trader - there's a hack you should learn that no one is talking about. It makes finding 100% trades way more consistent.
I grew an account from $1k → $19,400 in 13 days using the exact same two concepts every single day.
I made a FREE 5-page guide that will teach you this same exact strategy.
Like + comment “Guide” and I will send you a DM. (Must be following to DM)
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@TickerSymbolYOU I’m thinking I should sell my $300 $AMD leap for 1/15/27
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@gregory_FTA There are staples trading at higher valuations. Ridiculous.
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$NVDA is turning into a beach ball that you hold under water. I'm very surprised they've been able to hold it back, but my guess is, it's by design. Imagine them trying to keep the price here when they start pulling $100 Billion quarters lol.
One day this year, that beach ball will see sunlight in a hurry. Team Burry going to get cooked.
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@Gartav388637 @SRxTrades I was told today that $CRCL has agreed to pay $COIN half of their interest income from their USDC held on the Coinbase exchange. I’m looking into it. Coupled with $SOFI’s deal with $MA for their stablecoin I’m less bullish on circle.
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Plenty of new themes and narratives will start emerging in the next few months
The worst thing you can do is:
Focus only on what led the market higher over the last few year
Being able to identify new leaders is a skill you MUST learn
Before finding a leader, you need to identify where money is flowing in the market.
The strongest stocks almost always come from the strongest sector or theme. When a theme gets attention, institutions pile into multiple names, but one or two stocks will lead the move.
Examples of themes might be:
-AI
-Robotics
-Aerospace / Defense
-Semiconductors
-Software
The leader is usually the stock that:
-Breaks out first
-Holds gains the best
-Shows the strongest relative strength
You need to start tracking these stocks and building a watchlist.
Leaders Hold Strength While Others Pull Back
A major trait of market leaders:
They refuse to go down when the market or sector pulls back.
You’ll often see:
-Higher lows
-Tight consolidations
-Quick recoveries after dips
That relative strength is a sign institutions are defending their positions.
When scanning for new leaders, use this checklist:
-Is the sector strong
-Is the stock breaking out of a base?
-Is volume expanding?
-Is it holding gains better than peers?
-Is it closing strong on the daily/weekly chart?
If multiple boxes are checked, that’s when a stock may start becoming a market leader.
New leaders don’t look obvious at the beginning. They usually look like just another breakout until the trend develops.
Your job isn’t to predict the leader...
it’s to recognize the conditions that leaders come from.
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@munster_gene @DivesTech Jensen needs to put his money where his mouth is and buy back their stock!
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Big update on demand: Stock goes from up 2% to up 3%. Raised CY27 revenue to be about 7% higher than the Street.
Specifics: Jensen now says through end of CY27 there is $1 trillion in demand for Rubin.
Three weeks ago, he was saying CY26 was going to be better than $500B.
My take: This implies CY27 revenue of better than $500B. The Street is currently at $468B, so he effectively raised next year’s outlook 7% higher than the Street. $NVDA
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@longriverCM @kakashiii111 Based on your explanation I’m more concerned about the CSP’s ability to show ROI in the cap ex. Maybe CSP’s are giving credits to $NVDA so they can get preferential customer status, which is better than giving away equity. I wonder if that was part of $IREN’s recent buy?
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I might connect random dots unnecessarily here but why does it feel like an Enron example?
Enron created hundreds of Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) like LJM and Chewco to hide debt and inflate profits.
Nvidia uses "De-Facto SPVs" like CoreWeave (and other specialized CSPs) to act as the primary buyers of its most expensive chips.
In both cases, the "customer" is not a fully independent market actor but is economically tethered to the parent company (Enron or Nvidia) via equity stakes and backstop agreements.
In terms of circular cash flows, Enron engaged in "Prepay" transactions with banks like J.P. Morgan and Citigroup, disguised as commodity trades to book immediate cash as "Operating Cash Flow", and used Mark-to-Market (MTM) accounting to book the projected future profits of a long-term contract as "current income" the day the deal was signed.
Nvidia’s $26B in Cloud Credit commitments functions as a modern Prepay; Nvidia provides the "commodity" (GPUs) to a CSP and receives "credits" (future compute capacity) in return. When Nvidia then "invests" those credits into Startup X, and Startup X uses them at the CSP to "buy" more GPU time, the value has traveled in a complete circle, inflating the revenue of every party involved without a single dollar of organic, outside profit.
I don't know if this makes a lot of sense but some of what they do reminded me Enron's past actions.
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The Cloud Credits Economics
So let me present to you how it works, how Nvidia “fully underwrites the economics.” The Cloud Credits economics probably refers, Intrador, CEO of CoreWeave, Nvidia’s de-facto SPV.
As of September 30, 2025, Nvidia sits on $26B in cloud credit commitments, while anticipating that it will use $1B of these during Q4, ending January 26, 2026. Which means that if Nvidia did not strike more cloud credits for GPU deals during this quarter, it would sit at $25B. But it could be even less. How? Nvidia explained it very well for the first time in Q3 2025. One may wonder why only last quarter, but this is not the only sudden disclosure or omission we have seen from Nvidia, so let us leave it aside for now. “Some cloud service capacity may be reduced, terminated, or sold to others by the CSPs, in which case our commitments will be reduced.”
What does it mean? How can Nvidia’s commitments be sold to others by the CSPs? It is simple. Nvidia “invests” in Startup X, in an AI company, or in an AI lab. They all share that they need GPUs. Instead of cash, Nvidia gives its cloud credits to the company in the same amount, or the majority of the amount, it intends to invest. Company X, in which Nvidia now has equity, will use them with the CSP from which Nvidia received the cloud credits by selling GPUs or striking a backstop agreement.
And that’s, folks, how you inflate demand.
Kakashii@kakashiii111
Nvidia Presents the Cloud Credits Boom NVIDIA’s cloud credits method began in the second half of 2022, when they announced partnerships with “cloud service providers” to offer cloud-based infrastructure for training AI models—just in time for ChatGPT’s launch and the AI FOMO frenzy. Why Did Nvidia Come Up With This? Nvidia realized their own cloud services might not make money quickly and would require significant time and investment to grow. So, by partnering with cloud companies, Nvidia lets these companies join the AI party by scoring GPUs without needing to come up with the cash. How Does the Cloud Credits System Work? Nvidia “sells” these GPUs to the cloud companies, but instead of getting paid cash right away, Nvidia receives something called cloud credits. These credits allow Nvidia to “buy” services from those cloud providers later. When Nvidia “sells” GPUs to cloud providers and gets cloud credits instead of cash, it essentially means Nvidia is recording a receivable or an asset—a kind of IOU or prepaid balance with those partners. These credits represent Nvidia’s right to use services from the cloud providers later—like a trade or barter arrangement, not immediate cash income. Accounting Perspective From an accounting point of view, Nvidia books revenue from the GPU “sale”, but simultaneously it creates an obligation to consume cloud services in return. Then, the credits become an obligation for Nvidia because they must eventually “pay” for services by using those credits. It’s not pure profit until the services are actually consumed or settled. This approach helps Nvidia show revenue growth now, while cash flow or actual costs get balanced over time as cloud services are used. What Is the Scale of Nvidia’s Use of This? In just 2.5 years, these cloud credits jumped from $1.6 billion to over $10 billion per quarter—a 10x surge (!). That’s the NVIDIA magic: a clever way to fuel the AI narrative by looping capital through cloud partners while booking revenue on the other end.
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@TheRayMyers So essentially SOFI is getting into credit card business and settling transactions using their stablecoin? Is this a threat to $CRCL?
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$SOFI $MA Stablecoin partnership is a game-changing development for Sofi's new crypto business.
The market completely shrugged it off because of the Fintech sell-off, and the Iran War is sucking all the attention.
$SOFI US dollar stablecoin, SoFiUSD, will support settlement across the Mastercard network.
Historically, card transactions are settled by banks in fiat currency through central banks, taking a long time, sometimes days.
This partnership allows $SOFI to move money instantly at any time, instead of waiting days for traditional banks to process transactions. Issuers and acquirers can choose to settle transactions in SoFiUSD, allowing for 24/7/365 instant settlement.
Simply put, by using their own digital currency, they can avoid paying expensive fees to middleman banks and keep more of that profit for themselves.
Sofi will begin by settling all its Mastercard transactions using SofiUSD, demonstrating the usefulness of this technology.
Then, through its Tech Platform business, other companies will use this faster technology.
There are huge applications for this technology in:
- Remittances
- B2B Payments
- Bank-to-Bank Settlements
$SOFI has the potential to make billions in fees from its stablecoin.
The way it works is that each $1 of SoFiUSD is backed by $1 of actual fiat money.
For instance, Tether, the issuer of USDT stablecoin, has $184B in circulation, backed by $184B in fiat, which is invested in stable assets, generating billions in interest income.
If the SoFiUSD stablecoin gains traction with banks to settle Mastercard transactions, remittances, and other payments, it could reach volumes in the tens of billions.
Let's say SoFiUSD gets to $40B in circulation.
At 3.5% interest rate, that would generate over $1.4B in revenues.
Operating costs for such a business would be minimal, as everything is automated. Also, unlike for bank deposits, SoFi wouldn't incur any interest costs.
They could realistically have an 80-90% pre-tax margin.
That's $1.1-1.3B in pre-tax earnings.
For context, in 2025, $SOFI earnings before taxes were $526M.
So this one product alone could double Sofi's pre-tax 2025 earnings.
And this doesn't even include any additional transaction, maintenance, or SaaS fees that it could generate.
BULLISH $SOFI
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@TheRickWilson Smart. May save the global economy. They do have hundred million barrels they can deliver if price goes higher.
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@dannycheng2022 Just signed up for your free service on Patreon. Intrigued by how your charts work. Do you use Trading View or a different service?
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@dannycheng2022 Yes I just sold it at 69. Want to load up on a pullback.
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