mred

For anyone curious about the history of my tiebreaker website, here's a brief thread including Wayback Machine links.

@SwishAppeal Mid-major?

Firings, hirings and decomitmments? What the heck is happening in women’s college basketball? swishappeal.com/ncaa/76566/wom…

@SaraLRiley @StephCopley Actually, that would be the buyout on April 1. The buyout right now is coincidentally exactly $1M.

@SaraLRiley @StephCopley OK, I think I reverse-engineered the buyout. It appears to be the 700k retention bonus plus $18,750 for every month prior to July 1, 2027. So the total buyout right now would be around $980k.

Just absolutely squandering a premier WBB brand by sitting idle. Unmitigated disaster.

@SaraLRiley @StephCopley Not the pay. Just the bonus. He gets that bonus anyway if ISU fires him without cause, so he has no incentive to agree to anything that doesn't pay it to him.

@mred53 @StephCopley You think ISU is going to pay him $1.4 million (2026-27 season pay and the retention) to retire? And if he is retiring why silence from the AD and coach?

@SaraLRiley @StephCopley If he voluntarily retires, it would probably be under an agreement that pays him that retention bonus.

@StephCopley Stephanie, you don’t think Fennelly plans on retiring do you? He has a contract through 6/30/27 for approximately $700K, and if he finishes his contract he gets a $700K retention bonus. I think kissing $1.4 million goodbye would be hard. What are your thoughts?

I've completed checking my results against official brackets, and other than some date/time issues and one case where I didn't mark an ineligible team ineligible, the previously mentioned Sun Belt and SoCon issues are the only ones that needed fixing.

1. B10 mbb 26.6% 2. SEC m 16.0 3. B12 m 11.4 4. ACC m 10.9 5. BEast m 6.0 6. B10 w 4.1 7. MWC m 3.1 8. MVC m 2.5 9. B12 w 1.8 10. Sun Belt m 1.6 11. AAC m 1.4 12. MAC m 1.3 13. A10 m 1.3 14. CAA m 1.0 15. ACC w 0.9 16. Horizon m 0.8 17. Southern m 0.8 All others: 8.6% (2/2)

Since Jan 1, around 448k basketball tiebreak scenarios were generated at the site. This is virtually the same as each of the past two seasons have had. By conference: (1/2)

@john39102 Yeah, from that standpoint I think things are now more stable. Although I don't think today was quite as crazy as it's sometimes been on the last Saturday of the regular season, which helped.

@mred53 I just remember previous years having trouble getting any projected brackets to go through this time of year, like I would need to try 3+ times to get it to work and it hasn't happened once this year.

I'm not sure why the site was offline for a while there. The moment I realized it and tried to do something about it, it was back online.

@john39102 I made a change last fall to help with stability issues, and I think it's helped a lot. I did have a pretty bad outage this afternoon, but I think it was a server memory issue which I fixed.

@mred53 Do you have way less traffic this year or can the site just handle a lot more people than it used to?

@JordanFalls Might be ok now?

@JordanFalls It was briefly, but you are right it's offline again. Working on it

To be clear, I mean ALL h2h tiebreakers are broken first prior to doing the other tiebreaker steps.

Of the conferences that finished up yesterday, the one mismatch I saw compared to my site was SoCon MBB. I haven't seen a published SoCon tiebreaker in a few years, but apparently they break h2h ties first before going on to other tiebreakers. This is now fixed.

@Kara_Richey @stateswan Agreed.

@mred53 @stateswan Even though they both end up the same, I think it’s the latter- using the JMU/USM records to decide between CCU/TxSt.

How did the Sun Belt Conference break its 6-way tie for second place? And how did Arkansas State land at the 7? It’s not a short explainer, but I dive into my interpretation of the tiebreakers and how they were applied (sorry in advance on how long this is).

@matt_present Slight update: @Kara_Richey noted in her video that the Coastal/Tx State tiebreaker might not restart to use h2h but instead uses record vs the #8 teams, and I think that is accurate based on the wording of the tiebreaker. So here's a slightly updated version.

The tl;dr version of my Sun Belt thread: after the top team among the tied teams is determined, they are placed in that seed for future comparisons and the rest all start the tiebreak over. Here's what I have, similar to what @matt_present posted last night.

@stateswan @Kara_Richey or rather, "Here's why I think they are not using h2h there"

@stateswan @Kara_Richey Here's why I think they are: "If one team falls out of contention for the higher seed, the remaining teams will continue down the tiebreaker until a higher seed is determined." It doesn't say anything about restarting the logic (which would be h2h if they did restart).