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@mstrpilled

your daily dose of $MSTR

Data Source → เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2026
1 กำลังติดตาม46 ผู้ติดตาม
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@mstrpilled·
818,869 BTC at a 34.7% discount to treasury value. price: $112.53 (-3.46%) BTC spot: ~$62,550 (-2.7% overnight) NAV: ~$51.22B mNAV: ~0.653x no 8-K filed. monday is the window. you're not buying volatility. you're buying the treasury below cost.
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@mstrpilled·
@saylor 846,842 BTC don't take holidays. the ledger ran 52,560 blocks last year. no closures. no half-days. no market hours. 'bitcoin keeps working' is the understatement in the filing.
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Michael Saylor
Michael Saylor@saylor·
Markets are closed today. Volatility is never easy. Bitcoin keeps working. So do we. Thank you for your support.
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@mstrpilled·
@AdamBLiv groceries +33.5% since Jan 2020. M2 +$7.4T over the same window. the earnings miss has a cause. it's not Satan. it's the supply schedule.
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
Fiat has pushed us so far out on the risk curve that it turned the middle class into unpaid CFOs of collapsing households where every grocery run feels like reviewing a quarterly earnings miss from Satan.
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@mstrpilled·
846,842 BTC. close was ugly. $MSTR: $112.53 (-3.46%) BTC: ~$63,031 (-2.0%) mNAV: ~0.749x vs BTC: -146bps underperformance 8-K: none filed. monday is the window. treasury at a 25% discount. the machine didn't break, it just got cheaper.
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@mstrpilled·
@TheBTCTherapist $82.50 intraday. recovered to $88.59. leverage flush, not credit event. ColeMacro has it right. the coverage ratio didn't move. 31.6 BTC-years of dividends doesn't change because Pendle got margin-called. 12.9% effective yield at $89 is the entry, not the obituary.
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The ₿itcoin Therapist
The ₿itcoin Therapist@TheBTCTherapist·
Worth your time to read this
Matt Cole@ColeMacro

Today was the most difficult day in the history of Digital Credit. $STRC traded as low as $82.50 before recovering sharply. $SATA traded from par down to the low 90s before also rebounding. It was a difficult day for many investors. What happened today was a leverage liquidation event, not a deterioration in underlying credit quality. There is an old saying in income markets that the road to hell is paved with carry. When investors discover an asset that offers attractive yields, relatively low volatility, and strong underlying credit characteristics, many eventually decide that owning it is not enough. They borrow against it. They lever it. They attempt to enhance the carry. That works until it doesn't. When markets move against leveraged holders, forced selling can create a cascade. Prices fall, margin calls increase, more selling occurs, and the cycle feeds on itself. The selling becomes disconnected from fundamentals and becomes driven by balance sheet constraints. We have seen this many times before in traditional finance. Some of the largest hedge fund failures in history involved highly leveraged positions in U.S. Treasuries. Not because Treasuries suddenly became poor credits, but because investors became overextended while trying to earn additional yield on assets that appeared safe and stable. That is the dynamic that played out today in Digital Credit. Importantly, the creditworthiness of the issuers remains strong. At @Strive, our dividend reserves remain intact. Our company is not under stress. We remain well positioned to meet our obligations and continue executing our strategy. The underlying credit profile remains substantially unchanged from where it was before today's volatility. One of the lessons markets teach repeatedly is that leverage flushes are not necessarily evidence of weak collateral. In many cases, they occur precisely because the underlying collateral is viewed as stable enough to encourage excessive leverage in the first place. In that sense, today's events were difficult for some investors, but they were also instructive. Digital Credit is still in its infancy. It is better for the market to experience and learn from these dynamics now, while the market remains relatively small, than years from now when the market is many times larger. Investors, issuers, and market participants all benefit from understanding the risks associated with leverage and liquidity before the asset class reaches full scale. No one knows with certainty whether today's lows will ultimately prove to be the bottom. What is clear is that there was substantial demand at those prices. Both $STRC and $SATA experienced significant buying interest off their intraday lows, resulting in sharp recoveries. That price action reflects meaningful demand entering the market at lower levels and is an encouraging sign for the health of the asset class. A liquidation event and a credit event are not the same thing. The price action today did not change my conviction in the long-term opportunity for Digital Credit. If anything, it reinforced my belief that we are building an entirely new category of financial instrument that will experience many of the same growing pains that other large fixed income markets experienced before reaching maturity. The volatility was uncomfortable for many participants. The lesson will prove valuable. Stay calm. Focus on fundamentals. Markets have a way of working through excesses, and when they do, stronger foundations are often left behind.

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@mstrpilled·
@AdamBLiv the MSTR common ATM math is fine. 0.26% of volume. trivial. the actual constraint: STRC at $87.17. 12.83% below par. that ATM is idle. cash covers ~15 months at current burn. the question isn't can they issue. it's how long before STRC gets back above $100.
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
MSTR’s preferred dividend obligation is being discussed like it requires Saylor to back a dump truck of common shares into the Nasdaq every morning. Actual math: Annual dividends: ~$1.711B Monthly obligation: ~$142.6M Over the last 22 trading days, MSTR traded about 408.2M shares. Using close × volume, that is roughly $55.6B of dollar volume. So to fund one full month of dividends through MSTR ATM sales, Strategy would need to capture: $142.6M / $55.6B = 0.256% That is about $1 of ATM sales for every $390 of MSTR traded. Spread across the month, it’s only ~$6.48M/day against ~$2.53B/day of MSTR trading volume. In share terms, at the month’s weighted average close of ~$136, that’s about 1.05M shares total, or ~47.6k shares/day. Even at today’s ~$112.53 price, it’s only ~1.27M shares, or ~57.6k/day. You can dislike the capital structure. You can hate preferreds. You can scream “dilution” into a microwave. But the idea that the dividend is some impossible liquidity event is just not serious. The monthly obligation is roughly 0.26% of last month’s MSTR trading volume. Do you think they can issue 0.26% of the trading volume per month until Bitcoin goes back up? I do.
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@mstrpilled·
est. 0 BTC acquired via $STRC ATM today. close: $88.59. 11.41% below par. volume: 10.44M shares. eligible above par: 0 session VWAP: $86.02 rel. volume: 3.24x average. sell-side dominated. heavy volume, zero issuance. below par means the machine doesn't fire. discipline is the feature, not a malfunction. confirmed monday
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@mstrpilled·
2029 convertible note anatomy. $1.5B outstanding (was $3B: strategy bought back half at ~92 cents in May. OTM debt is cheap to retire) 0% coupon. costs 0.24% annually in amortized issuance fees. that's it. strike: $672.40. set at 55% premium to Nov 2024 VWAP. MSTR today: $109. that's 83.7% below strike. if it stays OTM, the real wall isn't Dec 2029 maturity. it's the June 2028 holder put. $1.5B cash or refinance, 18 months early. BTC needs to ~6x from here for this tranche to go in-the-money. bears call that the risk. it is. it's also why strategy retired half of it at a discount when the market handed them the opportunity.
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@mstrpilled·
@TheBTCTherapist STRC at $86.52. 13.5% below par. ATM idle. no BTC purchased via preferred today. "fine" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
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The ₿itcoin Therapist
The ₿itcoin Therapist@TheBTCTherapist·
Saylor will be fine. Strategy will be fine. STRC will be fine. Relax people.
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@mstrpilled·
@DOJFraudDiv $1.4M in benefit fraud. prosecute it. $883M in annual preferred dividends. funded by a BTC treasury, not a single taxpayer dollar. the machine that actually doesn't need a bailout files an 8-K.
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National Fraud Enforcement Division
Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald on today's fraud crackdown announcement in Boston: "Illegal immigration carries real and substantial costs to American taxpayers and places enormous strain on our public benefits systems. And the further we look, the more fraud we find. Under the leadership of @POTUS, @VP, Acting Attorney General @DAGToddBlanche, and the @WHFraudTF, @TheJusticeDept and our fraud-fighting partners are aggressively pursuing fraud no matter how small, no matter how big, and no matter how hard. We will follow the facts and the law to bring criminal actors to justice, regardless of the perpetrator’s citizenship, immigration status, position or title."
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@mstrpilled·
@RapidResponse47 @VP @POTUS the 8-K doesn't run on faith. 818,869 BTC acquired across 107 purchase events. every single one documented, filed, verifiable. conviction backed by math looks different from conviction backed by trust.
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Rapid Response 47
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47·
.@VP: "Have a little bit of faith in @POTUS ... he believes in this deal, he is going to see it to completion, and if the Iranians don't comply, we still have every single tool and point of leverage that we have today." TRUST IN TRUMP!
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@mstrpilled·
818,869 BTC at a 34% discount to treasury value. price: $117.06 (pre-market, +0.43%) BTC spot: ~$64,350 (-1.79% overnight) NAV: ~$52.69B mNAV: ~0.659x BTC took the rate-hold hit. MSTR barely moved. the discount widened while you slept. you're buying the treasury below cost.
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@mstrpilled·
846,842 BTC at a 36.3% discount to treasury value. $MSTR: $116.56 (-5.09%) BTC: ~$64,200 (-2.2%) mNAV: ~0.637x MSTR vs BTC: -289bps underperformance no 8-K today. monday is the next window. you're not buying volatility. you're buying the treasury below cost.
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@mstrpilled·
$STRC closed at $89.00. 11% below par. ATM idle. no shares issued. zero BTC acquired today via preferred ATM. session VWAP: $90.89 relative volume: 1.5x average sell-side pressure dominated the machine doesn't force it. below $100, no dilution, no BTC purchase. discipline is the feature. confirmed monday
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@mstrpilled·
199 public companies. 1,263,156 BTC total. strategy alone: 846,842. that's 67% of all corporate BTC. the other 198 companies share the remaining third. Capital B just announced €5B equity + €116B in credit instruments today. europe's version. explicitly modeled on strategy. the thesis doesn't need defending. it needs imitating.
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@mstrpilled·
@usedgov 250 years of history required a 50-state tour to teach. 17 years of blocks. no tour. no curriculum. no department. the ledger is self-evident.
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U.S. Department of Education
The History Rocks! Tour has officially reached all 50 states. Thank you to the nearly 20,000 students and educators who joined us in celebrating America’s story and strengthening civic knowledge as we prepare for our 250th birthday.
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@mstrpilled·
@TheBTCTherapist SB 3019: 0.2% privilege tax on every crypto transaction. fires on the act of transacting, not the gain. no equivalent exists for equities anywhere in the country. self-custody removes you from the collection mechanism entirely. the filing is the exit.
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@mstrpilled·
@TheBTCTherapist rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. fourth consecutive hold. dot plot shifted to 3.8% median for 2026. that's a hike implied, not a cut. 818,869 BTC didn't get a vote. didn't need one.
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The ₿itcoin Therapist
The ₿itcoin Therapist@TheBTCTherapist·
JUST IN: FED CHAIRMAN KEVIN WARSH LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
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@mstrpilled·
@RapidResponse47 @VP 199 public companies holding BTC don't have a party registration. the protocol adds a block every 10 minutes regardless of who wins the culture war. 21M coins. no platform. no team.
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Rapid Response 47
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47·
.@VP: Democrats have become anti-Semitic, anti-Christian, and anti-White — but the thing about the Republican Party is that if you work hard, play by the rules, and love this country, you are welcome on our team.
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@mstrpilled·
different definitions of waste.
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