nOnEpcbl.
227 posts
my friend spent $8,400 on gas fees trading Polymarket last year
that's 14% of his profit just burning on transactions
PredictFun just integrated into @BinanceWallet
zero gas fees, trades directly from Binance balance
he said: "I was competing against market odds AND Ethereum gas prices. Now I only compete against odds"
what changed:
gasless everything - Binance Wallet sponsors all network fees, trading and settlement cost $0 in gas
direct balance use - trade from Spot/Funding accounts, no bridging, no cross-chain transfers, no moving funds
mobile-native - full prediction market in Binance App, not desktop-only like every other platform
limit orders - set your entry price and wait, not just market orders like typical prediction markets
Keyless MPC - on-chain security without managing seed phrases
he switched last week
same strategy, zero friction
typical prediction markets: pay gas on entry, pay gas on exit, pay gas to claim, bridge assets first
PredictFun in Binance: $0 fees, funds already there, mobile access
first prediction market that doesn't punish you for trading
Binance Wallet@BinanceWallet
Introducing Prediction Markets, provided by @Predictdotfun. Take positions on real-world outcomes, from crypto to global events. No complicated wallet setup. No gas fees. *Available in selected regions only. Learn more 👉 binance.com/en/support/ann…
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@LunarResearcher wow out of tens of thousands of wallets
he only needed 7
looks like the rest is just exit liquidity :)
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My little brother failed math twice.
He's 17. Mom took his PlayStation.
I walked into his room. Three monitors. No games.
"What are you doing?"
Filtering wallets.
He found an article about how the top 7% actually win on Polymarket. Not win rate. Payout ratio.
He showed me the screen:
> 7 wallets tracked
> 1 category only
> payout ratio: 4.2x
"That's it?"
Blocked every category except one. No politics. No sports.
I watched for 30 seconds:
+$14.20 captured
+$8.90 captured
+$22.40 captured
"How much did you make?"
Copy his bot here: @lunar" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@lunar
$41,300. Three months. From his room.
"How?"
Claude filtered 100K wallets. Found 7 with >70% win rate in one category. He just copies them.
He bought mom a new kitchen last week. She cried.
Dad still thinks he's gaming.
He went back to his room. Three monitors. No games.
He still can't pass algebra.
The bot doesn't care.
Trackmind@0xTrackmind
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lost $8,400 on sports predictions in 6 months
couldn't stop, every game felt like "this one's different"
girlfriend found my losses, left
desperate, found Kreo Sports Auto Trade on Polymarket
> uploaded my patterns into bot
> it analyzed 40 years of ATP data, found what actually works
> set rules, bot trades automatically
3 weeks: $200 seed → $2,840
difference: emotions gone, just math
bot doesn't tilt after losses
doesn't chase
just executes when probability edge exists
deploy tonight: $50 deposit, set sports strategy: @wallet" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@wallet
first trades execute within 24-48 hours
bookmark before emotions cost you another $8K
> I traded on feelings
> bot trades on probability
> made back $2,840 staying disciplined
Kreo@kreoapp
Auto Trade on Sports ⚽️ Set up strategies, and let the bot trade for you! Gain your edge with Kreo. 🤝
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My friend got laid off from a hedge fund last November
He was making $2.1M/year running their quant desk
Instead of applying to another fund - he took their entire strategy framework and rebuilt it on Polymarket
1300$ → 187,564$ in 3 weeks
Total cost: $200/month for Claude, $50/month VPS
He said: "The models I built for the fund work better on Polymarket, because on Wall Street you compete against other quants. On Polymarket you compete against guys who bet based on Twitter polls"
He rebuilt a 4-factor model in one weekend
Same math his fund ran on $800M AUM:
Momentum scoring: track 400+ markets, buy when a contract moves 10¢+ with rising volume
Mean reversion: when a contract overshoots 15¢+ in under 2 hours - fade it
Volatility regime detection: hidden Markov model classifies low-vol vs high-vol every hour. Switches strategy automatically
Correlation breakdown: 200+ market pairs monitored. When two normally correlated contracts decorrelate - one is wrong. Trade the lagging one.
All 4 run simultaneously
COPY HIM: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…
Portfolio optimizer combines the scores
Fractional Kelly sizing, max 5% per market, 15 concurrent positions
His fund's flagship returned 19% last year on $800M
His bot returned 144,000% in 3 weeks on $1300
He doesn't need to work anymore
bl888m@bl888m
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A 19 y.o Chinese math student in Beijing built a Polymarket bot during exam week
He wasn't studying for exams
He was studying order books
1000$ → 158,341$ in 3 weeks
He used all the formulas from game theory and probability theory to win
Сrypto markets on Polymarket are priced by people who check CoinGecko once a day
On-chain data updates every 12 seconds
He built a bot with Claude that pulls real-time data from 3 chains - ETH, SOL, BTC
Сompares on-chain momentum against Polymarket crypto prices
COPY THIS BOT: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…
When the blockchain says one thing and the market says another - the bot trades the blockchain
Entry rule: only when on-chain signal leads Polymarket price by more than 8¢
His professor asked why he stopped coming to lectures
He said he's applying what he learned
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$SIREN: +430% — Again the Same Play?
$SIREN pumped +430% today, dominating buys across all CEXs within minutes.
We’ve seen this before:
• previous pump & dump cycles
• DWF activity behind moves
• control of ~88% supply
When one entity controls supply + drives volume…
price isn’t random.
Feels less like a rally, more like a setup.
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> 4 hour video on Claude Code is fire but you don't even need to read anything
> just hit play and throw it on in the background while you eat
> trust me this will be the most useful meal of your life
> everything from CLAUDE.md to Git worktrees from
project setup to running multiple instances
> 4 hours that will save you hundreds
bookmark this full guide and once you've watched it you can come back and thank me 👇
GIF
Yanik@TemsYanik
Claude code full step-by-step guide The video is 4 hours long and covers all the nuances of working with Claude > how to build your own project using Claude > how to use the CLAUDE.md file as the "brain" of your project > how to run multiple instances of Claude Code and make them work for you > how to use Git worktrees to do hours of work in minutes Here is your path to becoming a developer Bookmarked it so you don't lose it
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TOPURIA IS BACK - AND GAETHJE MIGHT WISH HE WASN'T
- One year away from the octagon, a personal crisis, and a White House backdrop
- Ilia Topuria's first lightweight title defense has all the weight of a coronation.
> The Georgian is 17-0, a two-division champion who KO'd Charles Oliveira in round 1 to claim 155 - the same Oliveira who finished everyone else
> His timing is surgical, his chin has never been seriously tested, and at 28 he's still ascending. Gaethje is a massive +400 underdog for a reason.
But Gaethje is exactly the kind of fight that exposes a long layoff. He took the interim belt by outworking Paddy Pimblett in January and he brings relentless forward pressure, low kicks, and the will to die on his sword. A year of personal turmoil, even if resolved, is not a training camp.
> Joe Rogan: "Topuria will have the greatest resume in UFC history if he KOs Gaethje."
My read is Topuria finishes this inside 3 rounds - but the 61.5% market price feels light for a fighter this dominant against an aging Gaethje.
> Polymarket: Topuria retains lightweight title through 2026 - 61.5%
wladwtf@wladwtf
TWO 0-2 UFC FIGHTERS WALK INTO THE APEX One of them has to get their first win tonight. The market has already decided which one. Costa enters as a -400 favorite, Nicoll at +330 BetMGM -- steep for a prelim flyweight bout where neither man has figured out the UFC yet - Costa is 2-3 in the promotion, Nicoll 0-2 BetMGM, so the favorite tag is built on regional pedigree and striking credentials more than octagon results. - The case for Costa is real. 83% takedown defense, 45% significant strike accuracy, and a finishing rate built on 6 submissions and 5 KOs over 14 pro wins UFC Bet Companion - He neutralizes Nicoll's main weapon before the fight even starts. If Costa keeps it standing, this is his gym The counter is harder to dismiss than the odds suggest. Nicoll finishes 87% of his wins -- 4 KOs, 3 submissions Verdict MMA -- and has never been stopped on the feet > His two UFC losses both went to the judges. He loses decisions, he does not get finished. That matters when Costa's confidence coming off a TKO loss to Coria is still an open question. Implied market probability: Costa ~80%
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What if the problem was never the market? The silence you avoid might be the signal
everyone has their own path
everyone makes mistakes
big ones
small ones
the ones that matter
and the ones that don't
mine led me here
debts
a job I didn't care about but needed
apathy
a constant weight I couldn't explain
I couldn't keep going
quit my job
risking everything
debt waiting on the other side
but for the first time
my mind went quiet
tense
but quiet
one day I saw a few threads
people weren't predicting markets
they were tracking behavior
sounded too simple
still tried
fed wallets into Claude
built a small system
it didn't predict outcomes
it showed how the crowd misprices them
panic
boredom
delay
repetition
same patterns
again and again
first trades hit
then 20k in 4 days
then it just kept running
same signals
different outcomes
realized something
all those mistakes
weren't mistakes
just a path
to seeing what others ignore
same market
different eyes
follow or keep trying to "understand the market"
Hrundel75 🐷@Hrundel75
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@LunarResearcher markets punish impatience
kindergarten teachers
are very patient
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My mom asked me to "look at something weird on her iPad."
I thought she downloaded a virus from Facebook again.
It was a terminal tracking 14,000 wallets on Polymarket.
She's 49. Kindergarten teacher. Pronounces Claude like "Clawed."
Built it in 3 weeks while I thought she was playing Candy Crush before bed.
She found my article. Didn't tell me. 168 messages with Claude. First one: "I'm a mother not a programmer but my son says this works."
Convergence filter. Quarter Kelly. She only trades markets she "has a feeling about." Claude validates the feeling with math.
Last 55 days:
→ 712 copies
→ 93.1% win rate
→ +$7,300
Try to copytrade her bot: @lunar" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@lunar
Best trade: 3 whales entered "AI regulation" during nap time at school. 14 kids sleeping. Her phone buzzed. Entry $0.35. Resolved $1.00. +$1,700.
"Mom. How long has this been running?"
"Since your article. You said 87% lose. I didn't want to be the 87%."
"Why didn't you tell me?"
"Because you would've said 'mom be careful' and I'm careful. I use Quarter Kelly. You taught me that. You just don't know you taught me."
She bought dad a new grill last week. Told him she "saved up."
She didn't save up.
Lunar@LunarResearcher
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Anthropic employee got early access to Mythos Claude
internal model they're not shipping yet
fed it quant frameworks from classified research papers
Bayes. Kelly. KL-divergence. Base rate updates
told it: "Build prediction system"
3 weeks of trading: $134,000 profit
company noticed unusual model usage patterns
fired him April 2nd - He's gone
Severance: $8,000
His Polymarket wallet: $134,000
you need permission to expense $200 software
he used pre-release AI nobody has access to and cleared 4 years of his salary in 21 days
They patched his access, but he already cashed out
Still waiting for GPT 5.5 public release to "try new features"?
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> failed economics twice in college
> professor told me "you'll never understand markets"
> dropped the class, gave up trying
> couldn't pass basic finance
> 7 months after graduation: broke, desperate
> found article: make $51K without trading knowledge
> method: just copy profitable people, don't need to understand
> tried it, nothing to lose
> 3 months: $51K
> analyzed 14,000 people making real money
> 92% don't have finance degrees
> they just know who to copy
> professor still teaching same class for $67K/year
bookmark before you prove professor right
bl888m@bl888m
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Me after realizing Claude saved my life from working 9 to 5 until retirement, 30-year mortgages, the rat race is over
Hrundel75 🐷@Hrundel75
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@LunarResearcher it looks like you and your brother have a big future ahead
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My 16-year-old brother asked me to "check something" on his PC.
I thought it was a virus.
It was a terminal tracking 14,000 wallets on Polymarket.
He's in 10th grade. Can't buy beer. Built it with Claude during winter break while our parents thought he was grinding Valorant.
187 messages. No coding experience. Just stubbornness and a prompt window.
The bot scans every whale wallet. Scores by win rate, ROI, timing. When 3+ top wallets converge - auto-copies.
Last 60 days:
→ 824 trades
→ 91.2% win rate
→ +$8,400
Best trade: 5 whales entered the same market in 2 minutes. Entry $0.37. Resolved $1.00. +$1,900. During a math test. His phone buzzed in his pocket.
Try to copy bot: @lunar" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@lunar
He got a B- on the test. The bot made more than our dad makes in a week.
"Does mom know?"
"Are you insane?"
"Then how are you cashing out?"
"Through cousin's wallet."
I stared at him. The kid who still asks mom to make him sandwiches.
"You gonna tell them?"
He looked at me dead serious.
"Only if you want me to stop paying for your Netflix."
He's been paying for my Netflix since April. I had no idea.
Lunar@LunarResearcher
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> everyone on Polymarket trading against the crowd
> me: losing $2,400 trying to predict outcomes like everyone else
> found article: trade the crowd itself, not the event
> sounded like nonsense - tried it anyway, nothing left to lose
> built Claude agent that reads crowd behavior patterns
> not what will happen. how wrong the crowd is about what will happen
> first week: felt like cheating
> second week: $3,200
> third week: stopped checking the news entirely
> realized: I never needed to know the answer
> I needed to know when 50,000 people were confidently wrong
> analyzed crowd behavior across 8,000 markets
> the signal is always the same
> consensus feels certain, price is lying
> $16,000 later I still don't predict outcomes
Hrundel75 🐷@Hrundel75
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@Hrundel75 this system breaks through our income ceiling
now it's flooding from above
but it's not water
it's profit
we just place buckets
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win rate: 51%
break even: 23%
edge: math
my former employer: hey we'd love to have you back. what do you say?
my reaction:
bl888m@bl888m
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