Oren Orbach

510 posts

Oren Orbach

Oren Orbach

@orenorbach

Real Estate Developer & Investor. Cycles , Sentiment and Values with understanding what's next = $ Never Financial Advice, Best

Baltimore, MD เข้าร่วม Eylül 2012
52 กำลังติดตาม134 ผู้ติดตาม
ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
The market many times can misprice anything that is tradable. However thru time the true price will be discover . Owning pltr and path The market prices it much higher then I anticipate , My gold silver and mining stocks such as eqx fsm Clearance is my current description
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach approx "$100M EXTRA per month" according to Q4 Conf Call narrative from execs MINUS the 10K reduction in Goose production due to fire. Letś say 4k per month at $2500 margin, so my est. -$10M. So with reduced prod +$90M per month EXTRA.
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
B2GOLD - finally market wakes up - $btg $4.98 +0.9% , yet #gold $4739 -1.5% #silver $77 -3.5% $gdx -3.9% $nem -3.6% $aem -4%. With Q2 -35% oz prod hit @ Goose (fire), BS 👀: Finland divestment +$325M, $vmet.to +25% ytd (B2 owns 28%) & the ELEPHANT prepay ends in 70 days. $bto.to
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Honey 🛼
Honey 🛼@honeymoon250·
SO FAR NO ONE HAS FOUND THE WORD IN THE BOX. You deserve $1,850 if you can.
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Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
@mikealfred Gm Do you see iren and cifr growing at the same speed percent wise in the future ( own iren only ) best
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Jason Luongo
Jason Luongo@JasonL_Capital·
LEAPS are the most underused strategy in retail investing. Here's how they work: A LEAP is a long-dated call option with 1+ year until expiration. Instead of buying 100 shares, you buy a contract that controls 100 shares for a fraction of the cost. Why I use them: 1. Your thesis has 12-24 months to play out. No more being right on the stock but wrong on timing. 2. Your max loss is the premium you paid. Defined risk on every trade. 3. You get leveraged exposure for a fraction of the share price. A LEAP on a $200 stock might cost $20-30. 4. If held over one year, profits qualify for long-term capital gains tax treatment. When I buy them: - Only on stocks I'd want to own as shares - RSI oversold on multiple timeframes - Price at long-term support - IV is low (cheap premiums = better entry) - Strong liquidity in the options chain When all 5 align, that's a LEAP setup. It happens a handful of times per year, not per month. The biggest mistake people make with options is buying short-dated contracts that expire before their thesis plays out. LEAPs fix that. I put together a free cheat sheet that breaks down my entire LEAP framework - entry conditions, strike selection, profit taking, and when to walk away. Comment "LEAPS" and I'll send it to you. $VG $IREN $HIMS $HOOD $NVDA $GOOGL
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Mark
Mark@Mark4XX·
Does the US have the silver to do this? How many ounces of silver does it take to make a Tomahawk missile? Anyone?
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Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
@DarioCpx I can see the action of suppressing, I dont understand what’s the benefit unless they just trade both way to make money, best
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach @baldguymoney Clive is moving upstairs to emeritus chairman. Same team pretty much & problems nothing to do with Clive. There was a design flaw in Goose crusher that none of technical team or consultants picked up on. Sh!t happens ! It will get solved with some more time & $. $btg $bto.to
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Bald Guy Money
Bald Guy Money@baldguymoney·
B2Gold owners receiving their quarterly kick in the balls. Such a proud tradition.
GIF
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach @baldguymoney Not bearish, more realistic, Goose timeline steady state nameplate delayed until 2027, & some uncertainty "if"they can solve. I think problem gets fixed. 26 guidance reset lower but IMO will surprise to upside. Still getting pre-pay rerate. "$110M/month" . $btg $10 by EOY @ $5k+
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Siyu Li
Siyu Li@siyul·
$BTG From down 10% ($4.8) after 4Q25 ER to 52wk high ($5.95) in <1 week. 1. On $BTG specifics: low market expectation helps. 2. Gold mining in general: might be market finally comes to terms that higher gold price ($4-5k/oz) might stay for LT. Note: most gold mine PV still models ~$3k/oz.
Siyu Li@siyul

$BTG's 📉10% from bad 4Q25 ER is fully recovered in 2 days. I will offer two observations: ✔️The bar (mkt expectation) is damn low. ✔️BTG's 2026 guidance is conservative, imo. This is a coil-spring setup. Looking ahead 6(or 9) months, when we get to a quarter free of gold prepayment obligation (that is $120Mn FCF!) and Goose solves its damn crusher issue, how will the market react? Crusher is a gating issue that could (and does) impact output bigly (see the table below). But it is a mechanics, not a mine issue. Its resolution is a when, not an if. Over the years I've invested in mining, I've never encountered a project failure due to straightforward mechanical issues. Simply put, I love a setup like this. That said, gold mining is inherently volatile and could be down (or up) 10%+ any day. Disclaimer: I'm long B2Gold. I've not seen many in-depth analyses on $BTG's 4Q25 results, which have lots of puts and takes. Will include my analysis in my portfolio quarterly updates (it might get too long; if so, I will do a separate write-up just for BTG). Sign up for "Under the Hood" so as not to miss.

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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@baldguymoney let the memes go viral and sell it down to my bid ! THANK-YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MESSAGE.
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Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
@seethetrees1 Ok , it’s just eqx dejavu I remember sitting and waiting with eqx it wasn’t fun But it paid off Best
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach It is not a CEO problem. Fekola permit is a Mali Gov problem not BTG execution problem. Taxes also. Goose crusher was design issue. Not CEO. This problem will get solved. New mine commissioning takes time. there are always problems. Pre-pay & collars rolling off & gold still 5K
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
B2GOLD - bear case - Market has 2 directions. Min 9:50 Jordan's outlines some negatives. IMO Goose is the key. Fekola regional permit will come. But if $btg is having problems with mobile crusher & still no permanent re-engineered solution, guidance & AISC will suffer. Link below
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Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
@seethetrees1 How they get 1.2 mil oz in 2027 Is the ceo need to be replaced as many people think Thx
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach Kitchen-sink report. All problems will be solved in 2026. Crusher final soln now is H2. Q&A will drill on this & Fekola permit. But. The maths is the same. Goose will ramp, & AISC will come down over time. FCF step-up still on H2. Patience & BTFD
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Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
@seethetrees1 was wondering if after the earnings would you add if all the problems will seems to be solved and btg will move up like eqx did ( took about 2 to 3 months ) best
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach I'm going into FINS with no protection. $btg is largest position, but willing to suffer any Q4 negative news or Q&A nervous dip. Roll out of the final crusher solution might be delayed, which might cause a sp wobble. I have no intel. I sense there is news pending ! Good Luck.
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
BE HUGO ! - paper is cheap - Borrow @ 5 & buy hard assets ! Still rolling with 2x leverage in my 2H24 thesis gold/silver "majors with margin". Still holding. Exceptional returns. GLTA. $gdx $sil $gdxj $silj $oih $pbra $xom $fres.l $nem $b $aem $hl & still top pick $btg $bto.to
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Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
@seethetrees1 I posted long ago that will silver , the only way to get a free market price will be When the physical market Will be so tight that only after we will get a true price discovery, till then the leverage paper just keep playing , best
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
#SILVER - free markets are pure fantasy - We are @ point where ALGO trading dominates, & same ALGOS self-correct, self-program, iterate & extrapolate pattern/headline recognition. Then. One houses ALGO trades against another. & all try to fibre-optic front-run each others ALGO
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Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
@seethetrees1 I am not as experience as you In the natural resources industry, even Rick rule sell on the way up lol However experience and knowledge matter , I can’t complain 2025 and 2026 are my best years ever and you learn everyday Thank for your time and comments Best
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach not if I think bull market has legs and nothing has changed with the thesis .... "the money is in the sitting" Jesse Livermore
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach FRES BTG EQX HL NEM AG B CDE AEM PAAS IAUX ... still siting tight on all these with very big gains & have not sold a share yet. Ignoring the noise & riding thru' all the volatility past 12 months has payed !
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Oren Orbach
Oren Orbach@orenorbach·
@seethetrees1 Other then btg and eqx what other miners you hold Gold or silver Thx
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seethetrees
seethetrees@seethetrees1·
@orenorbach they have alot to report on: fekola regional, Goose crusher timeline, q4 production, 26 guidance. I am sure they have some of this info already but are sitting on it. Why? No idea. Perhaps, some bad news in there & waiting to have the good news to report all simultaneously.
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@seethetrees1 @honeymoon250 @mikealfred @JasonL_Capital @Mark4XX @DarioCpx @baldguymoney @siyul