seethetrees

FRESNILLO - relentless climb & 10 X ! - $fres.l returns 10X on first buys in 21 months. Need +20% more for 10X on full position £5.34 avg cost. Congratulations to anybody else out there who held on. Amazing how mis-priced this was. $fnlpf $sil $silj $ag $paas $hl $cde #silver

I80 GOLD - Voting with his $ - $iaux $iau.to ! I added 50% more shares with RY during this convert/gold smash dip bringing cost from 0.58 to 0.88 . Long list of catalysts coming over next 18M+. Execution! Margin of safety is high here @ 4.5K gold. BTFD ! x.com/insidermonkey/…

I80 GOLD - spoiler alert - $iaux $iau.to thrived ! New stellar team CEO Richard Young & COO Paul Chawrun proven winners. $1 Billion raised . $FNV onboard. Sp quickly recovering to $1.43 from recent convert dip of $1.23. Still -36% from 52w high. & +266% from 13 Nov 2024 0.39 low.

$GDX +4% today while the S&P 500 ($SPY) fell over 1.5%. A rare decoupling where gold miners pushed higher on a day of broad equity market weakness. I scanned all similar instances back to 2018 where $GDX rose +3% or more while the S&P 500 dropped -1% or worse: 27 prior occurrences. This dataset includes two instances from this year that are still incomplete from a forward-performance standpoint. Forward $GDX performance (nearest trading day ~ 3/6/12 months later, price returns): - Avg ~3mo: +14.7% (median +14.65%) - Avg ~6mo: +17.9% (median +12.62%) - Avg ~12mo: +20.6% (median +10.46%) The data shows clear positive skew. A handful of big winners, especially during gold bull periods like 2020 and 2025, pull the averages well above the medians. That’s why I highlighted both. Directionally, the setup has been strongly positive over longer horizons, though shorter-term results can be volatile. The two recent 2026 examples show weaker/incomplete forward data so far, and both are down significantly since those instances. Overall, returns have been stronger during #Gold bull markets or early bull phases, with more muted results in mature or late-cycle environments. It’s highly dependent on the stage of the #Gold and #Miners cycle, which makes complete sense. There is quite a bit of a debate going on about cycle we are in. I didn’t compare forward $SPY performance over the same windows (probably should have for context), but hey… this is a metals account focusing on miners 😆. Still, a useful thought experiment. We’re in volatile and unprecedented times, so take the data with a grain of salt. For the week: $GDX +7%, $GDXJ +5.5%, $SPY -2.2%. MTD: $GDX -26%, $GDXJ -29%, $SPY -7%. Thoughts? Signal or noise? Looking forward to seeing how this ages. EconomicAlpha 🚜⚒🌎🇺🇸🇨🇦 (Data via Polygon.io. Analysis on historical instances assisted by AI. Past performance ≠ future results. Not advice. Not guaranteeing data accuracy.)

@stokdog @LynAldenContact it depends on what the goal / agenda was, and who the German politicians were serving ....

@LynAldenContact Worst energy decision in history

Still can’t believe they did this.

TRANSOCEAN - new 52 week high - I will continue to hold $rig and $val thru completion of merger & until day-rates inflect higher & buy-backs begin. Meaning 18+ more months SITTING & doing NOTHING. Same for $tdw . GLTA

TRANSOCEAN - new 52 week high - $rig touched $7.04 today for a new high. Congratulations to those who saw the value early. Sitting on 125% gains in 6 months. With $val merger RIG will become my largest position. The best early bet in energy when oil "glut" fear dominated.

There are two types of bear markets. And confusing them will cost you 👇

The “largest tax refunds” ever bull thesis has quietly been thrown in the trash as the preliminary numbers coming out are showing vastly lower refunds than analysts expected. And now with energy prices going 📈… tax refund season is shaping up to be mostly disappointment.

Must read 👇👇👇

@nowhereInVoid @oldeconjunkie I am overweight B2. New allocation to miners has to be into another name for me. But, $btg $bto.to is best buy here for anybody not already allocated. But 6 to 9 month more patience required.

@seethetrees1 @oldeconjunkie Why not make it overweight?

COUER MINING - buy the dip ? - $cde $16.5 -7.5% keeps dumping. Touched 200dma, -40% from high. When will selling end? $ngd merger adding #gold fcf at $4k+ gold. $hl $17.5 -5% is down even more -48% from high but above 200d, & $ag $19.64 -5% is -38% from high & remains above 200d

TACOS coming quicker than the market or the media can digest them. We should all be thankful that we don´t have 24 hour markets.

BARRICK - ghost of Bristow - Near certainty that $b will be sold & broken up ! $nem merger with divestment of non NA assets & Riko Diq will be sold at distressed price ! Thanks for playing long term investment game ! Doesn´t work in a fractured world - Spheres of influence !

BARRICK - ghost of Bristow - $b will not get reward for risk of copper project in Pakistan. IMO gets divested to player with better local "geoplolitics" connection. A few million $ invested by "buyer" in "conflict" could reap multi Billion $ discount on distressed asset sale !

@ed_fin offshore the best early allocation for an oil bounce, with less volatility than tankers, & with a day-rate inflection already a given just a question of when. & then Iran ! Majors going to start bidding for these assets to allocate capex to safer deep water oil ! $rig $val $tdw

Isn’t it funny how people are realizing — suddenly, after 3 weeks of war — that offshore rigs and supply vessels might be in demand going forward?

The $VAL chart nowadays looks pretty much the same as the one from $RIG. Both names seem poised to make new highs and we're basically seeing no selling volume at all! #offshore

@oldeconjunkie $btg $bto.to remains my largest position. Can´t buy anymore B2GOLD as already over my skiis !

@seethetrees1 Are you still bullish $btg? Seems like best r/r on miners. Got a small position on $wrlg.v too, a bit more protected from oil price increase.

coEUr mining --- e b4 u -- spell it right ! $cde

COUER MINING - buy the dip ? - End Q1, Q2 re-balancing beginning, $gdx $gdxj $sil $silj over-sold & sentiment washed out. I added some $cde here @ $16.50 . Assuming no WW3 weekend. I expect bounce. Q1 fins incoming 5 weeks. $rgld $230 also added, & last chance for $iaux $1.30

@RealRickRule Offshore drillers will get bid hard as day rate inflection gets pulled forward when global producers compete to secure platforms. Decades of under investment & MENA risk means Deep Offshore Oil will be viewed as safest oil on plant. $rig about to touch a 52 week high. $val $ne

Worth consideration. How will your portfolio weather a storm like this, should it occur.?