philhere
2.6K posts
I ended up covering back up half of my puts with short puts again (at the rate I'm going with this the long puts will be cost free). I am not entirely convinced we get a big move Monday even with a ceasefire breakdown. The main issue is that markets are not taking the oil shock risk seriously and not giving enough attention to the damage already done. I think we spin our wheels Monday and pin around 675 - 678. Any bad news from the weekend will be fighting a tug of war with the last large call wall over 1BLN which is the 685, which expires Monday.
Tuesday would be where the wheels start to come off. The past couple months the market kind of just yawned at CPI, but it's been moving more on PPI. Now add in that PPI would be where we see the effects of the Strait of Hormuz being closed first I think we are in for a very hot number, too hot to fake. Remember, Wednesday is VIXperation so that will free the VIX from the vol suppression it's under right now. All told by Wednesday things have the potential to be moving to the downside very quickly.
The alternative is if we get good news over the weekend, ACTUAL good news that is verifiable, we will probably chop sideways into OpEx.
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@ConsensusGurus All this $SNDK $INTC $WDC action reminds me of $SMCI on 15-Feb-2024
Question is what do we get now from these $150B companies with the price action of meme stocks jacked up on calls...
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Intel $INTC playing the same fun game - $63 in 24H trading!
Consensus Media@ConsensusGurus
Phase 1 complete $SNDK
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@TradingThomas3 the Excel spreadsheet reads like this for each component:
ACTUAL VALUE = EXPECTATION - 0.1%
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The Strait of Hormuz May remain shut, the barrels of oil may remain firmly locked in.
The ceasefire may not hold.
But nobody will dare go long on crude futures. Because there will be yet another false dawn, and they will get battered down again.
Meanwhile, in the tight physical markets, buyers will pay what they need to pay when the commodity is scarce. You can’t deliver a physical barrel you don’t have.
In the long run… the broken futures market risks becoming the exclusive playground of speculators, a hive of insider trading, but useless for hedging physical barrels.
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@Iridium57 @DarioCpx I was about to mention that but didn’t to keep it short - news reported very long lines at Total stations before the caped prices expire (tomorrow). Shortages were at other stations who ran out of fuel and haven’t re-stocked
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@philnothere @DarioCpx You must have misunderstood, TotalEnergies has frozen the price of unleaded petrol at 1.99 and diesel at 2.09 . These are pretty much the only stations that are out of fuel, because of the price of diesel is over 2.09. The price freeze ends today or tomorrow.
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Apparently, Europe’s strategy to keep oil prices low for consumers so far has been not buying oil supply at the new post-escalation higher prices still (while Asia is bidding aggressively for anything available) - if anyone else heard the same pls let me know in the comments
JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
I was literally about to post about this. My friend in Singapore told me his colleagues trading crude are seeing aggressive bids from Asia for any crude and LNG supply already on water. Not surprisingly many tankers initially routed to Europe changed course to Asia. He thinks because of this dynamic the shortages in Europe might become even more acute soon than what’s already expected. We also had a brief chat about physical silver, one of the metals he trades directly, and he is seeing the market for physical right now as tight as December with a lot of inventories dismissing offers even at 20$+ premium vs spot. I asked him to comment about no moves whatsoever for physical silver at the Comex last Thursday and he believes some inventory moves might not have been accounted for. Comex will be ok till end of April when the May contract will increase pressure again especially when demand from China didn’t slow down at all in the past few months.
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The market has trending been up almost the entire week apart from one sell last night which got reversed in minutes.
Really not sure what bears have been looking at.
Happy Easter all 🐣 🦖
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@1CoastalJournal Hopefully it completes the right shoulder from Dec/24 left, dec/25 head, ??? Right and we can short it into oblivion
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$TSLA is not a leader nor has a moat
They aren’t the leader of EV
They aren’t the leader in autonomous
They aren’t the leader in Robotaxi.
They are the leader in 📉 Sales, revenues and profits out of the MAG 7.
They are 1 bad day from being a regular company 💀
The Coastal Journal@1CoastalJournal
AI Stock 2026 ⚠️: “One Bad Day” 💀 • $PLTR ~400× GAAP earnings • 🚗 $TSLA deliveries ↓ ~16% YoY 300× P/E • $NVDA cash lagging earnings • $AMD 110× P/E • $AVGO 75x P/E 📉 1 bad miss is all it takes Link: open.substack.com/pub/coastaljou…
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@Big_Orrin Only way to do this would be to put a $0.01 tax on trades
If I make 4 $CL contract trades in 1 day it would add $0.04 to my $10 in brokerage fees
I could not care less for all the benefits
But that’s never gonna happen because the system is run by crooks
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@blue_chip1 $CVNA green Friday while everything was red... Would not believe it if I did not see it
The strength of this scam is epic
It will fall so fast when the 1 or 2 market makers decide it's time to dump
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@DarioCpx How the market (stock price) pretends $Nvda is unrelated to the $smci fraud (for now) is mind blowing.
But again, Jensen got daddy trump to authorize the fraud (gpu sales to controlled nation) in exchange for bribes or insider information so perhaps he was smarter …
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Kind reminder: these 2 gentlemen here in the picture are long time buddies and business partners (not coincidentally, both with previous cases of accounting fraud on record that only temporarily slowed down their meteoric rise)
JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
Almost one year ago in the post below I stated: “I bet the FBI will raid $SMCI offices and open a hell of a pandora box” Today the company issued a statement confirming 3 people associated with $SMCI have been charged by the FBI with conspiracy to smuggle billions worth of AI tech in violation of US export control regulations. Yes, so far only these individuals are being prosecuted, but if you think that the company had no involvement, I suggest to stop believing in unicorns. We know $SMCI has been cooking its books and now we know criminal activity in breach of US laws happened in connection with the company. Be ready for the full extent of the fraud to be official in any moment and for the value of its shares to sharply fall to its fair value: ZERO.
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@FibChartsPro Could it though, since export capacity is capped and usually runs at 100% ?
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@jjarema1981 @StockMarketNerd Would be interesting to check open interest on calls that’ll be worthless at $25 but bleed the sellers if $ttd was at $30 this coming opex. Will check tomorrow on Unusual Whales.
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@StockMarketNerd So two no name analyst downgrade TTD after CEO purchase and then a week later a bogus article on wanting to see competition pricing . lol the timing of all these seem like hit pieces to try to suppress the price even more into options expiration. Let's see price next week
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Yikes if these $TTD allegations from Publicis are true.
Overcharging clients & opting them into up-sells without their consent.
This agency (representing 10% of $TTD's billings) no longer recommending it to clients.
$TTD's response was very short & lacking detail. Maybe they say more in the coming days. I would think they’d have more to say in the near future. 🤷♂️
We'll see how this shakes out.
Intimidating claims at the very least.
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@Bogachan_1971 Not being a panican, but don't things start to BREAK over 160 ?
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@Mr_Derivatives @mikealfred between $HIMS and $DUOL, it looks like he just got lucky once with $PLTR...
a bit like the other 1d10t and his $cvna call
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@mikealfred The crazy thing about all of this, is that 99% of ppl know EXACTLY who u are referring to lol
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