ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
Clearly you haven't been seeing the size of the rallies, and crowds and huge lines at petition signings. There was nothing like this level of enthusiasm or excitement last summer at the "Stay in Canada" Petition signings.
Let me do some simple math for you, to show you that saying it is "not possible" is short sighted.
The last Provincial election, 1.7M Albertans voted. The last Federal election 2.2M Albertans voted.
The "Stay in Canada" petition garnered a little over 456K signatures. This was in summer, where being outdoors and waiting in long line ups was comfortable, of which there were never widespread video evidence of lineups anywhere.
The StayFeeAlberta.com movement, is collecting thousands of signatures a day in the middle of winter (estimated between 5K-8K signatures daily). If these numbers hold, then we can expect somewhere in the range of 480K-960K signatures by the end of April. Despite these numbers, the internal goal is to collect well over 1M.
Assuming these numbers hold, and are a statistical sampling of the will of Albertans, then we can expect the following in the fall if a vote to secede is added to referendum:
Low Range:
Stay: 48.72%
Leave: 51.28%
High Range:
Stay: 32.2%
Leave: 67.8%
Obviously there are unknown factors, like propaganda, smear campaigns, Ottawa based sabotage, political interference, etc. that could tilt the scales.
However, purely based on the math and assuming the process is not interfered with, saying "it is not possible" is foolish.
Another tell, will be when left wing politicians begin to amp up their smear tactics and rhetoric. This will be a signal that they are nervous, because their internal numbers will be reflecting the above.
The truest tell however, will be at the end of April when the movement presents their final petition counts.
If there are over 1M signatures, the betting odds will be well in the favour of independence.
English
