Rational Aussie

There is going to be mass unemployment of white collar workers by 2028 and it will collapse the entire debt based Ponzi scheme western governments have relied on for decades to paper over the cracks of a fake economy. The bubble will burst, they will try print again and hand out UBI, but this time they'll get either hyperinflation or social revolution, or both. Bitcoin hits $1m USD by end of 2028 as the world grapples with the biggest sovereign debt crisis in the history of mankind. We are very close to the End Game now. There is no stopping this.

It is hard to model scenarios you have never lived through, which is why most people can't do it. You can provide most people with all the evidence - everything that makes it look almost certain a particular thing will happen - but at the end of the day most won't make that final leap of faith to say 'yep, that's gonna happen, I need to act'. The reason for this is twofold: 1) they lack generality across domains (can't reason from first principles, and are missing too many mental models of how the world works) 2) they are not used to thinking about these things, and simply don't care. In any case, black swans are always an interesting case study of human behaviour. Because you always think 'surely, this time, they will see it.' But no, they never do.

@favelaoverlord War is not rational

I’m feeling a ‘vibe shift’ and I think this will be resolved, some way, within the next 10 days or so.

@logan_wealth Lol. It's a Fourth Turning. The rules of the world you live in are all about to be rewritten. Plenty of examples of this throughout history, and for banking in particular eg in emerging markets, failed Nation States etc

@rationalaussie Sure it does, I have legal entitlement to the assets, they are legally mine, so what you’re explaining is that the rule of law is not sufficient protection for you. Our society runs off laws, rules, regulations, the entire system operates this way

The finance bros who look at what's happening in the Iran War and think 'how can I make money from this?' are completely missing the point. Your number on a screen isn't real, retard. It's a credit owed to you by an entity that in essence is already structurally bankrupt. It's fake. An obligation that - if shit really, truly hits the fan - will not be paid out to you in the coming currency reset. People live under an illusion that the numbers they see on a screen are real. None of this shit is real. The best way to prepare isn't through buying shitcos, it's through setting up your entire life for resilience against chaos: being able to produce your own energy, and then store the value you produce using that energy in something that can never be stolen. The only asset that allows you to do that is Bitcoin, because it's the only decentralised, immutable asset that cannot be seized nor debased. We are at the 'suddenly' phase of 'gradually, then suddenly'. The number on the screen doesn't matter. What matters is how many sats you own before the entire global financial system is wiped out. Fiat currency will only be useful to burn when you're sitting in your dogbox at night wondering why the lights are blacked out for the 5th time that week. Prepare for the storm.

It's irrational to you because you're a mainstream wealth advisor, probably on the normie path. What I am inferring is that the underlying collateral is not owned by you, it's owned by the person who is obligated to issue it to you, and in times of crisis that obligation disappears, or is altered eg due to capital controls, government theft etc. You don't own a stock. The institution that issues it to you does.

@rationalaussie There are so many irrational and illogical gaps here, I honestly don’t even know where to start. Maybe let’s start at the number on the screen not being real.. sorry to say, but fiat money is real, it buys real goods and services and is stored digitally in real bank accounts?

@zerohedge @matt_barrie Because the government is retarded

Why Is Australia Not Already Rationing Fuel? zerohedge.com/energy/why-aus…

@LukeGromen When's your next pod appearance @LukeGromen ? Would be good to get your latest take on how this all impacts the petrodollar / reserve currency status of USD

If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will spin.

Energy is the lifeblood of a civilisation. 3.5% of global LNG was just blown the FK up in a single strike by Iran. 20% of oil supply is offline. You don't need to be a genius to intuit the seriousness of this situation. And that's before you get into the game theory of what's actually going on, which is significantly worse.

"Two weeks to stop the spread"

@NickSzabo4 @NickSzabo4 if this happened, wouldn't this effectively be the US relinquishing its global reserve currency Status? Ie petrodollar dead if they can't control the flow of oil and payments in USD?

(4) Sign a treaty with Iran that gives Iran and other coastal states more say in the rules for navigating the Persian Gulf and Hormuz, and reduces U.S. presence in Saudi Arabia and the GCC. (The latter would be quite welcome by the great majority of the U.S. populace, even if not by the current U.S. regime). In the heat of war, never forget that peace is always an option.

Absolutely correct.

Right on time

Seems prudent to have the following right now: - Sovereign money (Bitcoin) - Sovereign energy (Solar + battery) - Sovereign telecommunications (Starlink) - Sovereign intelligence (local LLMs) The world you thought you existed in no longer exists. The system is extremely fragile in so many different ways, many of which could cause cascading failures.

I don't think people realise how serious this Iran situation is. During the 1973 oil crisis, in the UK industrial and commercial users of electricity were limited to 3 consecutive days of power per week, street lighting was reduced, and heating was restricted. Similar things happened in Europe - reduced energy use and rationing. And the current oil shock is significantly worse than that was, by a large margin. Use your imagination. The UK and Europe, and much of the West, including Australia, were already in a very weak position regarding energy security, social stability and economic growth before this war started. They have populations that are already fed up with the status quo, and have been flooded with immigrants that don't share their culture nor values. This will tip many of them over the edge. This feels like the big one to me, and the start of something much more serious than most people are talking about.

Aus economy gonna be turbo fucked.

I am getting severe covid deja vu. Shit is about to hit the fan.

Spare a thought for the 'nothing ever happens' guys. Situation monitors have been preparing for this moment their entire lives. This is the Superbowl of Situations to Monitor.

@Bigred393939 It's certainly possible

@rationalaussie Will I 100% goto hell?

If your dream is to become a government bureaucrat one day, let me give you the 101: Every time there is a demand problem, blame it on supply. And every time there is a supply problem, blame it on demand. For example, you import 1.3 million immigrants over a few years. You might think, 'yep, that's a demand problem for the housing market, infrastructure and essential services - too many people, too quickly'. But you would be wrong. It's actually a supply problem. Why? Because that benefits you politically. Let's do one more example before you're ready to enter your first role as a government slop slinger. A war breaks out in the Middle East and Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting all shipping through the Strait. Is that a demand problem or a supply problem? You guessed it! Demand! You see, it doesn't matter that there is no supply flowing, nor does it matter that physical oil and gas facilities are being blown to smithereens - it is a demand problem because people should simply learn to live with less. Congratulations, you are now ready to become an Australian politician. Any questions?

Hard times create strong men because the Great Men of history step out of the shadows to kick the incompetent, lying thieves to the curb and regain control. Not through democracy, but through something more akin to benevolent dictatorship. Patriotism. A call to Greatness. This time period will be no different. The government isn't coming to save you. You will have to save yourself. But eventually you will want to save 'it' - not the government itself, but the notion of what it means to be an Australian, to raise children in this country, to live a fulfilling and meaningful life. Eventually none of these things become possible if you simply allow the status quo of woeful incompetence, wilful blindness and corruption to continue. Australians deserve better.