US Army Veteran (rkumar9844.bsky.social)

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US Army Veteran (rkumar9844.bsky.social)

US Army Veteran (rkumar9844.bsky.social)

@rkumar9844

Thoughts will come and they will go away; their time and life are limited. When you are beyond thought, then you are beyond time. Observe without react. HUMAN

Beautiful EARTH เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2013
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Taylor Breesey
Taylor Breesey@TayBreesey·
wataa
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
The war that was launched to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is building the infrastructure to settle energy without the dollar. Nobody in Washington appears to have modelled this feedback loop, and it is running in production right now. Here is what is actually happening at the chokepoint. Iranian crude is still flowing. Approximately 1.22 million barrels per day are reaching Chinese teapot refineries via ghost fleet tankers operating with transponders dark, settling in yuan and cryptocurrency through channels that do not touch SWIFT or dollar clearing. The IRGC charges roughly two million dollars per voyage for safe passage, payable in yuan. Lloyd’s List has confirmed documented yuan payments. CIPS, China’s cross-border payment system, recorded daily average volumes of $134 billion in March, up 27 percent year on year. The Atlantic Council cautions that this does not prove Iranian flows specifically are clearing through CIPS. But the infrastructure is live, functional, and being legislatively hardened by Iran’s parliament, which approved the Strait of Hormuz Management Plan on March 31 and is advancing it to a full vote. The US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver on March 20 for approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude already loaded at sea. That waiver expires April 19. Its purpose was to prevent an immediate oil price catastrophe. Its effect was to legitimise the continued flow of Iranian crude at war-premium pricing while those barrels settle through non-dollar channels. The waiver did not defend the petrodollar. It funded the experiment that bypasses it. The pricing inversion is the proof. Before the war, Iranian crude traded at roughly a ten-dollar discount to benchmark because sanctions imposed friction costs on buyers. Today Iranian crude commands a premium. Aramco’s official selling price for May Arab Light deliveries to Asia hit a record $19.50 per barrel above the Oman-Dubai benchmark, double the 2022 peak. The war premium has flipped the economics of sanctioned crude from discount to premium, which means the ghost fleet is now more profitable per barrel than legitimate trade was before the conflict. That profitability funds the IRGC, sustains the Hormuz closure, and incentivises permanent non-dollar settlement architecture. The loop is self-reinforcing. The scale remains marginal. 1.22 million barrels per day is less than two percent of global supply. The yuan holds roughly two to three percent of global reserves against the dollar’s 58 to 59 percent. No systemic displacement has occurred. The petrodollar is not dead. But the petrodollar has never before faced a live, functioning, daily-settling alternative that operates under fire, clears in a non-Western payment system, and is being codified into the statutory law of a sovereign nation controlling the world’s most important maritime chokepoint. The 1973 crisis created the petrodollar through a Kissinger handshake that locked oil into dollar settlement. The 2026 crisis is creating its first viable bypass through a toll booth that settles in yuan, operated by a regime that has no intention of returning to the prior arrangement. Iran’s deputy communications chief stated that Hormuz will only reopen after reparations via a new legal regime of transit fees. The IRGC Navy declared the strait will never return to its former state. Tonight’s 8 PM deadline and the April 19 waiver expiry are the two dates that will determine whether the war that was launched to defend the dollar order instead cements the first permanent crack in its foundation. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
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Piers Morgan
Piers Morgan@piersmorgan·
This is a brazen pre-admission of genocide against the Iranian people, which would obviously be a war crime. Madness.
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