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This afternoon, the court granted the CFTC’s request to temporarily block Arizona’s attempt to rush a criminal prosecution of Kalshi, a federally licensed exchange. We appreciate the CFTC asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over our exchange, and the court’s careful consideration of the issues. Under the U.S. Constitution, federal law is supreme. Today’s ruling is a step in the right direction.

This is a big deal. It underscores the fundamental advantage of a federal framework: the ability to provide consistent, nationwide customer protections, rather than relying on a disjointed state-by-state system. 🧵

For those who question the legality of US-based, regulated prediction markets — we see you casinos — the federal Third Circuit Court of Appeals disagrees. @PredictAction

Fox News x Kalshi The largest news network in America integrates Kalshi. Prediction markets add accountability by rewarding accuracy. That’s why the three leading networks have chosen Kalshi. No spin. No partisan lens. Just incentives to be right.

Fox partners with Kalshi to add sponsored 'crowd odds' to news coverage trib.al/TR8MKcJ

The Third Circuit ruled in Kalshi’s favor. People use prediction markets because they’re more fair, transparent, and reward being right. Free markets work. We should keep them that way. This is a big win for the industry and millions of users.

This week, CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller confirmed that government officials are prohibited from trading on regulated prediction markets using inside information under 17 CFR 180.1, aka the “Eddie Murphy Rule.” The rule’s nickname is from Eddie Murphy’s character in Trading Places, who made a fortune with a stolen government crop report. Rule 180.1 prohibits government employees from trading on MNPI related to government action while having inside info. Government employees and officials beware — insider trading on CFTC-regulated exchanges (including prediction markets) is prohibited under federal law.

The @CFTC has clear and longstanding exclusive jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets. But recently, state regulators have tried to impose inconsistent and contrary obligations on CFTC-registered prediction markets. In response, the CFTC and @TheJusticeDept today filed three separate complaints in federal district courts against the states of Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to reassert our statutory authority over these markets. Read our full actions below⬇️ cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…

First look: Stephanie Cutter to advise fast-growing Kalshi trib.al/eY6TuJN

Last night, Division of Enforcement Director @DavidMillerNYC outlined @CFTC enforcement priorities during remarks and a fireside chat at @nyulaw. David emphasized the agency’s continued focus on fraud, market integrity, insider trading—including in prediction markets—and customer protection. Read more: cftc.gov/PressRoom/Spee… #CFTC #Enforcement

The @CFTC’s enforcement policies and staff are strong. Under @DavidMillerNYC's leadership, the Division of Enforcement is updating its Staff Advisory on Cooperation and reissuing updated guidance that will refocus the Division on policing fraud, manipulation, and other abuses. Last night at @nyulaw, David outlined the @CFTC’s enforcement priorities, discussed insider trading in prediction markets, and previewed our new cooperation initiative. Read his full speech here: cftc.gov/PressRoom/Spee…

Kalshi ♥️s insider trading regulations

Wait… Polymarket has been operating off shore this entire time??

"Because it’s a prediction market doesn’t insulate you from fraud.” - SDNY US Attorney Jay Clayton We agree. DOJ is aware federal law applies to prediction markets. Federal regulations prohibit manipulative, insider, or fraudulent trading. And insider trading and market manipulation are violations of Kalshi's rulebook. Violating federal law or the rulebook of a regulated financial market could lead to penalties, from fines to criminal prosecution, including by the DOJ or other agencies. This is true for the stock market, for commodities markets, and for prediction markets. Kalshi has been and will continue to collaborate with law enforcement on investigations to ensure the integrity of regulated prediction markets.

American consumers by the millions prefer prediction markets because, unlike casinos, they don’t win when you lose. Casinos hate this. But federal courts and regulators have clearly held that our US-based markets are 100% legal and subject to comprehensive regulation by the CFTC, a proven cop on the beat.

“Operating outside the law.” That’s quite a claim to make when the CFTC is right there, asserting its regulatory authority and saying otherwise.

As institutional adoption of prediction markets grows, Kalshi is seeing increased demand for a formal market request pipeline to help investors leverage the wisdom of the crowd. @ARKInvest is now working with Kalshi through this pipeline to list markets used in investment analysis. A few of these are already live on Kalshi, including non-farm payroll markets, deficit-to-GDP ratio markets, business KPIs, and more. These markets produce valuable signal for the world's most important institutions to make better decisions. Great to be working with ARK to make this a reality. More to come.

Today, we’re announcing an expansion of our efforts to prevent insider trading on Kalshi - new guardrails and policies to preemptively block politicians and athletes from trading in certain politics and sports markets. These efforts, which have been in the works for months, proactively address recent CFTC guidance and Congressional proposals to prevent insider trading. We look forward to engaging with regulators and others to make these efforts a standard across the industry. news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-new-g…

Casino lobby hard at work. There is a reason tens of millions of people use regulated prediction markets: it’s a better product. Banning just pushes this offshore, where no regulation exists. This bill isn’t about protecting consumers; it’s about protecting monopolies.

On Aliens, Survivor, and The Bachelorette (so far). TL;DR: Just because someone has a large position in a market or traders follow rumors online does not mean they’re insider trading. Aliens, Survivor, and Bachelorette markets - we’re investigating all of them, and so far, we have not found compelling evidence of insider trading or market manipulation. However, these markets are not closed, and our monitoring and analysis continues. Aliens A few weeks ago The Atlantic posted an article titled "This Looks Like an Insider Bet on Aliens." The story focused on trades by a user who is wagering that by the end of the year, the U.S. government will confirm aliens exist. According to The Atlantic, due to the size of the trades it might be someone with "insider knowledge." But we investigated this position, including document requests and an interview with the trader. (He gave us permission to make this post). There is no evidence the trader has insider information. He's tired of trading stocks; he doesn't feel they are accurately priced. While looking for markets he felt he had an edge on, he found Kalshi's alien market. He developed a researched thesis for why the U.S. government might be on the verge of confirming alien existence (including recent document releases, new comments by President Obama, President Trump's response to those comments, etc.) and felt the position was underpriced. He doesn’t know whether the government will confirm anything or not, but based on public information and research, he considers his position a good one. Survivor and The Bachelorette Pre-taped shows mean that people have knowledge of what happens before the show airs - including contestants and production staff. But they typically sign legal documents preventing them from telling people - otherwise, shows would constantly be spoiled for everybody. Using that information for profit is not allowed. This week there was a New York Times article titled “People Are Making Money Betting on Pretaped ‘Survivor’ Episodes” that suggested insider trading is happening with our Survivor markets. We’ve investigated and, so far, have not found definitive evidence of that. We’ve been checking backgrounds of traders in this market and have not identified anyone with any connection to Survivor. After reviewing the trading activity, it appears the likeliest explanation is that traders are following public rumors, following other traders who placed trades in the opening hours of the market, or just trading based on research and conviction. Same scenario for The Bachelorette, and same conclusion thus far. It seems that Reality Steve’s site posts spoilers that tend to be right. People can look at those predictions, then place trades on prediction markets. That’s not insider trading. Still, we are continuing to monitor these markets and analyze trading patterns, and we will take action if we find anything anomalous.