mmakselon

@rugproofxioia @GustavoMont3iro @OddsMindX @XenyPM @Xmarketapp you capture that flow

@GustavoMont3iro @OddsMindX @ryan3vu @XenyPM @Xmarketapp others come in for volume

49.4k earned from Polymarket, almost $50,000! First Stand has been a doozy for me. It's pretty crazy how there's no upsets at all in the past few games; 2x 3-0 today :/ very boring (and not good for my pnl) +$200 from LoL and $400 from other markets, tmrw may be the day!

@rugproofxioia @GustavoMont3iro @OddsMindX @XenyPM @Xmarketapp and on @Xmarketapp you earn from people trading them

@GustavoMont3iro @OddsMindX @XenyPM on @Xmarketapp you can literally create more interesting markets

@WenRugxxx lowkey better to find somewhere early than chase crowded odds

market is dry again, my $500 sitting around and idk where to put it any good prediction market plays to run it up to 5k? drop some ideas or markets 👀

@OddsMindX @mason_zx13c on xmarket you can create markets and earn from that flow

@mason_zx13c yea because it’s not just trading

@DavidAbasyan @mason_zx13c @leopa665 @mahera777 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade that’s way more scalable

@mason_zx13c @leopa665 @ryan3vu @mahera777 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade you create them

Polymarket trader made $566K on sports in a month and his PnL is now $2.4M He made $2.2M in less than 2 months He has no specific strategy whether to bet on YES or NO NO predictions dominate in volume but his YES predictions are much more profitable Today he bet on Bodo/Glimt to lose and got $37,000 profit His predictions for the top 3 leagues are unbeatable This is not a trading bot, there is a real person behind this account, his low number of predictions indicates this You can check his positions below His profile: @geniusMC?via=mahera777" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@geniusMC?via=…

@DavidAbasyan @mason_zx13c @mahera777 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade on xmarket you can even create markets based on those models

@mason_zx13c @mahera777 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade and just farms mispriced events

@llowide @mason_zx13c @masosn94 @hanakoxbt like creating markets n taking fees

i fed Claude 5 PhD formulas and asked him to build me a terminal he didn't ask questions. he built MiroFish 274 agents. 4 quant formulas running live each one doing what 87% of polymarket traders can't every 5 seconds the terminal does this: > scans polymarket contracts > runs bayes update on every new signal > calculates EV against market price > sizes position through ¼ kelly > checks KL-divergence across correlated markets for arbitrage no opinions. no "i feel like YES is underpriced" just math that PhD students publish and hedge funds lock behind NDAs here's what happened in 14 days: > day 2: bayes picked up OSINT chatter on iran negotiations prior 0.31 → posterior 0.58 in three updates bot bought YES on "ceasefire by Q3" at $0.33 kelly sized it at 6% of bankroll contract moved to $0.61 by day 5 +$2,180 > day 6: KL-divergence flagged a gap "candidate X wins primary" priced at $0.70 "candidate X wins general" priced at $0.48 historical base rate says general should track at ~62% of primary bot bought general, hedged with primary convergence hit by day 9 +$3,740 > day 9: EV scanner found a weather contract market priced hurricane landfall at $0.22 model said 41% based on NOAA data EV = +$0.86 per dollar risked kelly said 11% allocation landfall confirmed day 12 +$4,890 > day 11-14: base rate engine running quiet fed meeting contract at $0.65 for "hold rates" base rate: fed holds when unemployment < 4% → 74% of the time unemployment at 3.8%. market underpriced by 9 points bought at $0.65. settled at $0.98 +$4,663 total: $15,473 in 14 days not from predictions. from formulas 87% of polymarket wallets lose money because they trade what feels right the top 1.2% trade what the math says MiroFish doesn't read twitter threads it reads probability distributions 274 agents don't have opinions they have bayesian priors every 15 seconds the NEXUS core sends a pulse to all agents they recalculate. reposition. repeat i just watch the profit tick copy the bot here: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116 you don't need to be a quant you need a quant's formulas running 24/7

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: ares.pro/wallets/0xd0d6… How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

A bot turned $2,050 → $178,000 in one month arbitraging 5-minute Bitcoin markets on Polymarket. No predictions. No news. No macro analysis. Just automation. The system: • uses limit orders only • exploits small pricing inefficiencies • repeats the process hundreds of times per hour Each trade looks tiny. But stack thousands of them… and the result becomes $178K in 30 days. Copytrade →t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… The real edge isn’t the trade. It’s scale. Bots can execute hundreds of micro-edges every hour without hesitation. Humans can’t compete with that.

@riko_flux @br0tail @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR Do you have any...?

@ryan3vu @br0tail @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR Right, beta platforms offer more opportunities

Prediction markets revenue* (last 30) 1. @Kalshi $110m 2. @Polymarket $4.2m 3. @cryptocom $4.1m 4. @opinionlabsxyz $1.3m 5. @trylimitless $1.1m 6. @IBKR $597k

@br0tail @riko_flux @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR The new trend now is to look for beta projects to farm points.

@ryan3vu @riko_flux @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR still feels like most of the volume is concentrated on just a few platforms

@riko_flux @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR prediction markets clearly getting bigger every year

@PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR crazy gap between kalshi and the rest ngl

@OddsMindX @Xmarketapp Any requirements to become a creator?

Got 2 codes for @Xmarketapp private beta Small alpha most people haven’t noticed yet: - Market creators earn a share of the trading fees - If your market goes viral and people trade it → you keep getting paid So instead of just betting on trends, you can actually own the market around them Pretty different from @Polymarket / @Kalshi DM if you want a code

polymarket trader made $5.3m just in one month by betting on sports meet this guy, executing a systematic value extraction strategy at industrial scale $178,850 profit per day, $1.34m profit per week 2,127 bets in ~30 days across 5 sports most likely it's an HFT bot, no human has edge everywhere, this is a math model executing flawlessly interesting nuance: on soccer, he aggressively buys "no" on favorites buying "no" covers 2/3 outcomes (draw + loss) he is systematically arbitraging the emotional premium on favorites his profile to track: @432614799197?via=tengen" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@432614799197?… p.s. drop a follow, i hunt these wallets regularly another proof that sports predicting on polymarket is a new gold mine for algo traders

Whether a user is broke or still has money, you can tell just by looking at this metric :)) If this metric stays stagnant while the market is green, you know the user is out of money. No more money to chase coins. Shake it all off and send it to the moon, hehe.

$50 to $280K in just three weeks not a single red trade this wallet didn’t even exist in November. Today, it’s quietly printing $22K a day, fully automated, while most people are still debating narratives. PurpleThunderBicycleMountain appeared on December 6 with a zero balance and a system ready to go. No warm up. No trial phase. Straight into execution. three weeks later, the account is running a relentless strategy built around one thing only Bitcoin 15-minute windows on Polymarket. Up or Down. That’s it. No politics. No alts. No side quests. i tracked over fifty consecutive trades looking for variation. there wasn’t any same logic every time spot BTC moves first on Binance polymarket windows lag for 30–90 seconds. he buys the outcome that’s already decided, then exits the moment probabilities snap back to reality what really stands out is the scale. over $45M in volume pushed through a single market type in three weeks from a brand new wallet this isn’t experimentation this is deployment. the equity curve looks unreal a near perfect line up green tile after green tile until the balance reads $280K the edge still exists the script is still running the only question left is how long the lag survives before this window finally closes like every other edge eventually does

The BTC vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 odds look interesting, might throw some cash in

bro where did u even get that "85% lose money" stat from 1/ prediction markets are literally INFORMATION AGGREGATION tools not slot machines. google, eli lilly, HP, microsoft all use em internally for forecasting. u think fortune 500s r running casinos in their offices? 2/ iowa electronic markets beat polls 74% of the time over 5 presidential elections w avg error of 1.2% vs polls 1.62% 3/ the point isnt for everyone to profit - its a FORECASTING mechanism. yeah its zero-sum for traders but society gets accurate real-time probability estimates. brookings, yale, IARPA all confirmed markets outperform expert panels & traditional surveys 4/ comparing this to casinos is wild. casinos have built-in house edge (97% lose). prediction markets have NO house edge - prices just reflect collective probability. u can literally arb mispriced contracts if ur smart enough 5/ should retail degens treat it like gambling? idk. but calling the whole concept "just gambling" ignores decades of academic research proving these r the most efficient info aggregation mechanisms we have. stay humble, gng

@krzysztofbosak @katarynaaa

@katarynaaa Z samym pomysłem robienia takiego plakatu. Przesłanie jest dość jasne: tradycyjny model męskości jest zły lub niepotrzebny, chłopiec nie musi uczyć się różnych rzeczy, które sprawią, że będzie dobrym mężczyzną i głową rodziny. Takie rzeczy to pranie mózgu w miejsce wychowania.

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