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Stark
186 posts
Stark
@starkstats04
Software Engineer, Data Analyst. Statistical/Technical and Fundamental analysis.
เข้าร่วม Kasım 2020
62 กำลังติดตาม45 ผู้ติดตาม
@scott_m_powell Late in the quarter price action normally doesn't go places. The start of a quarter usually shows agressive moves. I think that if we don't front run next week, from 1 of July this flies.
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$ASTS really getting frustrated with the lack of momentum in our stock given the recent catalysts getting big checkmarks. Can't seem to break back into the 90's without getting beat down to the mid $80's. What will it take to get our big MO back???
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Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
In orbit again with 3 more of the largest phased arrays ever deployed in LEO 🚀🚀🚀
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Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
$ASTS God speed tomorrow!
AST SpaceMobile@AST_SpaceMobile
T-Minus: BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 are Go for Launch aboard Falcon 9. Launch window opens June 17 at 2:39 a.m. EDT. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Getting closer to connecting the unconnected and under-connected worldwide. 🌎📶📱 #ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds Watch live: youtube.com/live/zjQieDzQT…
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@endless_frank And if they have the vision of getting to 1T market cap no way they stop here.
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@endless_frank They will not sell for less than Starlink value. You can't think this is a 1000$ stock (380-400)bn and sell it for 200bn. $ASTS #ASTS
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$ASTS Space X has now added over 800b today with after hours.
They are buying AST Spacemobile for 200b.
Mark it. Abel would be stupid not to sell and still retain equity upside in $SPCX if Elon bids.
We are the only company in their way in D2D. Elon will make a bid.
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Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
Its far easier for $ASTS to 20x than $SPCX to 2x.
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@endless_frank Never out of the table. But what if Abel sees in a mid term horizont revenue at 20bn, 30bn, 50bn? Accepting 200bn will look like a lazy and coward move.
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$ASTS I’m not the biggest expert on this platform when it comes to the corporate strategy of AST Spacemobile, but I’m pretty confident that given what I know about the technology and how MNO’s are going away from Space X as Space X is threatening their business, that this makes AST a massive acquisition target.
If Elon offers Abel 200b all stock(basically the gains of their stock TODAY), how does Abel not take that offer?
I think many underestimate this as a possibility now that Space X has so much maneuverability with their public equity.
Jabroni@JabroniTV
@endless_frank What do you reckon about Musk acquiring someone like ASTS rather than try build something out and compete?
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Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
The math on $ASTS at $80 ($30B Market Cap) is completely detached from reality. Look at the data:
Starlink’s 2030 projections are over $144 BILLION in revenue. Wall Street models are pricing $ASTS to capture a tiny 2% market share of that total addressable market.
Meanwhile, $ASTS has locked in exclusive commercial agreements with MNOs covering over 3 BILLION subscribers globally—completely excluding massive IoT and government upside.
Getting a 3-to-6 month delay on a massive structural build is just noise. Buying between $70–$80 is a complete steal before the next 15 BlueBirds hit the sky and the government revenue starts rolling through the tape.
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$ASTS - In this pattern, bottoms are typically characterized by momentum exhaustion and show:
1⃣ Large red candle w/price closing near bottom
2⃣ STO oversold
3⃣ ROC(5) extreme (-20)
Volume spikes are an inconsistent variable and don't have to occur‼️
Tuff_4r@tuff_4r
$ASTS - In this pattern, the equivalent move up results in price recapturing its former high in the same amount of time as the move down. 👉38% 👉45% 👉9% (failed) 👉36% An equivalent recapture would result in $110-115 after Batch 1 launch.
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$ASTS Making it as simple as possible. We are in a weekly uptrend since 4$, it fakes/deviates below the bands in every deep correction, nothing changed so far.
Zomming in, we are in a range until is proven otherwise . Bidding aggressively at 74-80$ range lows is the right approach.
#ASTS #Markets #Investing
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Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
Interesting prices in Space after a 30-50% pullback & the $SPCX IPO done.
$ASTS in the $70s gets really tempting. The real tell is where the next higher low lands. Ignore price targets, watch the lows:
$2->$17->$36->$48->$63->$70s?
Each de-risked milestone buys a better floor.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Going to start trimming and capturing some profits after multiple +100% weeks. Will likely start filling 13Fs soon, I gotta clean things up a bit. In particular Space sector holdings are up an eye watering amount and I was strongly leveraged in this sector going in. I want to gradually scale out into $SPCX IPO on some of it. $RKLB and $ASTS are by far my largest positions and I don't plan on that changing. Trimmed: $DRAM - China entering the game sooner than I expected, will start to gradually scale out. $FLY - captured from $20 to ~$50, will leave a little bit into the $SPCX IPO $RDW - trimming half after $9 to $18. Cool projects and engineering, terrible management track record and margins/dilution. Some early signs of a turn around in Q1. Market cap is now basically double prior ATH. Will continue to scale out into the $20's/$SPCX IPO then watch to see if they are evolving into something I can hold long-term. $ASTI - going to start scaling down gradually. Size is too big (started at just under 5% of company at $2) and I need to see more concrete progress rather than seemingly empty statements. $BKSY - up over 600%, size is too big now/taking some profits. $VELO - traded this for ~500%+, going to trim from $20-$30 range into IPO. Very interested in their decentralized manufacturing move recently. $OUST - held for over a year so going to trim LTCG positions a little into the $40's. Interesting general robotics play long term but they need to shrink things down much further to be viable for the humanoids. $TE - trimmed around $9, been in since ~$2 with big size so it got too big relative to the weight I want it at now. Also will be taking profits/closing on $VOYG, $PL. Going to keep $BE, $LUNR, $OSS, $WOLF, $NVTS, $IFX, $PENG, $ALAB, $INFQ, $NBIS, $JOBY, $QS, $BAER. Sorry for the ticker spam, but hopefully now people will stop asking. Not financial advice. Holdings could change any moment. These aren't all of my positions (don't want to get doxxed with 13F).
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@Reformed_Trader Trendlines are just a visual reference of momentum. We are in a range, everything is okay. $ASTS #ASTS
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$ASTS weekly chart. Not the best look. Just yesterday it was starting to repair the technical damage and within 10min of the open today it gave it all back. Unfortunately, it lost the rising support it formerly reclaimed.
However, it did land at the largest local volume shelf and some rising support. But the overall structure is problematic and simply messy. This may take some time to clean up.
I think this can certainly bounce along the way but it may have a hard time shaking off the space basket overhang. Long term my thesis is unchanged. Short term I'm concerned about the path it could take if supports continue to fail like they did this week.
*NFA
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Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
Just a reminder
If SpaceX is valued at $1.7 Trillion
This means that Starlink MUST be valued between $600-$900 Billion
Meaning
$ASTS at $37 Billion Market Cap could 20 X from here and will be at the lower scale of the valuation of Starlink, while arguably a stronger product
So what’s more attractive right now?
SpaceX or $ASTS
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@endless_frank That could help avoid the typical launch selloff and help the consolidation and continuation higher
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$ASTS Would be smart for the company to have and announce batch 2 ready to ship on Wednesday next week as the launch of batch 1 occurs.
IYKYK
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The market is far more entertaining than any football match
And I’ll die on that hill
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Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
Stark รีทวีตแล้ว
not a single player in europe plays that pass
MC@CrewsMat10
LESS THAN A MINUTE AFTER COMING ON, MESSI CREATES A CHANCE THAT LEAD TO A PENALTY FOR ARGENTINA 😳🔥
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