Jon Trades

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Jon Trades

Jon Trades

@switch_theory

long $SPY | derivatives trader sharing trade ideas, backtests, and insights gained from 6+ yrs of trading | IVa Good Feeling but member posts ≠ financial advice

Track my Trade Results Live 👇 เข้าร่วม Nisan 2017
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
Best port set up is a mix of everything. this is how i like to split things up in the taxasble account. 1. 18mo living expenses in T-bills (6mo across 3 accounts) 2. Rest long equities (mainly broad market ETFs like $SPY; 2-5 individual names max) 3. Sell calls and/or buy puts to hedge (strategically). 4. Take consistent-cheap-strategic shots at LEAPS. 5. Hedge/speculate short term times frames with broken wing flys (0-3 DTE) 6. Sell puts / enter long risk reversals (short put + long call) after a major beat down and spike in vol in high conviction names.
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
“Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can pay to greatness” - CCC
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
@options_insight Spot on. Everyone’s focused on a theoretical POP number and completely ignoring their Risk/Reward Ratio. You can tolerate lower POPs when you make more when you win than you lose when you lose. And if you’re paying attention to all the right things, you’ll find you can set up great risk/reward trades and have high realized win rates even when the theoretical win rate would say otherwise. Flys have been a part of my tool bag for a few years now, always great to hear how others use them!
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight

"Defined risk" sounds boring to some people. Small premium, limited upside. Grow a set! Completely backwards. I spent about $500 on a call fly last week trying to catch a bounce. If it works, that's $2,000 to $3,000. If it doesn't, I've lost $500. I made peace with that spend before I put it on. That's the whole point of these structures. In a market like this, where nobody knows if we're bouncing Monday (as we did) or dropping another 5%, that structure lets me take repeated shots without killing my account. Spend $500. If it works, bank it and set up the next one. If it doesn't, move on, wait for more conviction. Compare that to the trader buying 100 shares on margin to "catch the bounce." Same thesis. One knows their worst case. The other is hoping the market doesn't gap against them overnight. Defined risk is how I stay aggressive when the market is at its most uncertain. You can take multiple well calculated shots when you know exactly what you're risking. If you can't define the max loss before you click the button, you're playing with fire. With real money that gets expensive fast.

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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
That’s why I like using them 0-3 DTE on binary events like earnings and I break them to have no risk to one side usually. More reactivity. Tho a blessing and a curse. (Why sizing matters). Had a broken call fly on for last $TSLA earnings, initial move was down so I bot back ccs portion and the other short call, leaving me just being long a call, luckily Tesla rebounded next day for a small winner. These structures are versatile and hold value better than people think.
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
Butterfly spreads look incredible on paper. 10-to-1 payoff. Defined risk. Tight structure. Here's the part that hurts. The fly only pays if you're near the sweet spot at expiry. Before that, you've got almost no delta. At expiry or bust. So picture this. You put on a call fly for Friday. Market rips on Monday exactly the way you predicted. You check your P&L and... you're barely up. Your delta is almost nothing because expiry is 4 days away and vol is high. The theoretical payoff that excited you doesn't kick in until the thing is about to expire. By Wednesday the market's faded. By Friday it's back where it started. Your prediction was right. Your timing was right. Your P&L is flat. An outright call would have been up 150-200% on Monday. You could have taken the money and walked away. The fly held you hostage waiting for a perfect expiry that never came. Before you put on any structure, ask yourself one question: "Can I monetize the move when it happens, or only if the move sticks until expiry?" That question is worth more than any options calculator. The fly gives you leverage but holds you hostage. The outright costs more (decays faster) but lets you take money off the table when the move happens. Know which one you actually need to fit your view, before you trade.
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
@RealMattMoney 👋 I’ve had gold for years, still no invite to banking or gold card. Credit score is 720+
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Matt Farley
Matt Farley@RealMattMoney·
As someone who looks towards the second half of their life and simplifying cost structures, figure out how to get cheap leverage and margin, I would wholly move all my resources to Robinhood if the stars aligned. I'd potentially bring over all the real estate accounts, and family and friends too. Unfortunately, I can't do that. I've been on a waitlist for the first version of the Robinhood card, now there is even a higher step up. I'd live out of Robinhood if given the chance - their due diligence process is preventing that. Who else is in this situation? $HOOD @RobinhoodApp
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Ian Rapoport
Ian Rapoport@RapSheet·
Former #AZCardinals Pro Bowl QB Kyler Murray has signed a 1-year deal with the #Vikings, per me and @TomPelissero. Minnesota moved quickly after Murray’s release from Arizona, and now will have the former No. 1 overall pick compete with JJ McCarthy to start.
Ian Rapoport tweet media
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
Option selling has a time and a place like all option strategies, but the second it’s preached as safe passive income that’s where you cross the line in my book and expose your experience.
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
If a trader on X is telling you that he doesn’t need to prove himself by showing order slips or some alternative like an all time P/L spreadsheet because he has in the past, and he’s magically long when the market rips and short when it tanks, he’s 100% hiding something and deserves to be unfollowed.
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
@jschultzf3 Classic compliance - hiding the one metric everyone actually wants to see! I'll get the sharpie ready. We'll redact you P/L harder than the epstein files
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
Gonna roll this structure out to the 5/15 expiry to catch the next earnings move (May 4th AMC). Still a lot of macro uncertainty but i could see some sideways chop till then. And given I'm up ~$11,000 on my $PLTR shares, i dont mind the protection going to zero! Spreadsheet in bio will be updated with the new numbers.
Jon Trades@switch_theory

Bot the short put spread portion of the fly back for 0.65 (received 2.68 credit for selling it) if $PLTR rolls back over here I don’t want that to impede on the long put spread gain. Wasn’t much juice left to squeeze. What’s another $65 on a spread that could lose $2,000.

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Dr. James Schultz
Dr. James Schultz@jschultzf3·
@switch_theory That's a fair question. I don't know - might be a compliance thing. But if we ever get one, make sure you put the black tape over mine!
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Dr. James Schultz
Dr. James Schultz@jschultzf3·
Selling options isn't about prediction. It's about positioning. Sell high volatility, put theta to work, and let the probabilities play out. The edge isn't in being right. Those will take care of themselves. It's in staying small enough to keep the lights on when you're wrong.
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
been using broken wing call flies for intraday directional trades and the risk-reward is excellent the setup: -> market looks oversold intraday (stretched 1-2% from VWAP) -> buy a broken wing call fly on SPX, 0DTE -> spend maybe $300-500 per structure -> hold for 2-3 hours -> if the bounce comes, flip for 100% profit or more -> if it doesn't, cut for a small bleed -> if it dumps, max loss is the premium the thing about flies in high-vol environments: they let you step in with a view without getting your face ripped off. you're spending defined premium, you've got positive delta, and the theta bleed over 2-3 hours is negligible. compare that to buying an outright call in 30-vol. you'd need a much bigger move to overcome the inflated premium. these are calculated intraday positions with capped risk. and right now, they're working better than anything else in the book.
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
If you think you’re not “gambling” w/ options because you sell to open instead of buy to open you’re an idiot. But but win rates and theta! Yeah don’t care, if you win $1 eight times in a row and lose $5 twice (80% win rate) you’re sitting on a $2 net loss. There is still difficulty in knowing when to exit, and if you hold them all to expiry you’re exposed to the massive outlier losses.
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Vlad Tenev
Vlad Tenev@vladtenev·
Robinhood Banking just crossed $1B in deposits from 65K funded customers. Huge milestone — and the team is just getting started🔥 Robinhood is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services are provided by Coastal Community Bank, Member FDIC.
Vlad Tenev tweet media
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
We don't always get the strikes right first time, but but structuring trades well, you can adjust options trades once the market has moved. For example, in the video I explain what I could do with a broken wing call fly that I entered last week. Roll the structure down. Every 100–150 points the market sells off, you can reset the option structure lower. Take a small hit. Rebuild the position at new strikes. Then when the reflexive bounce happens and volatility gets smashed, the position moves into profit. It’s a systematic way to play the rebound. But only if volatility is already pumped.
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
@jschultzf3 It could go up… orrrrrrr, below the expected move 😜
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Dr. James Schultz
Dr. James Schultz@jschultzf3·
Playing $ORCL tonight with 150/135/120 Expected Move Put Butterfly. What could possibly go wrong???
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Jon Trades
Jon Trades@switch_theory·
When you buy naked options, you’re managing risk on the front end, when you sell them, you have to manage on the backend - hence better be at your computer 24/7
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