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First official trip to the White House was extremely successful.
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Matt Farley
31.8K posts
Matt Farley
@RealMattMoney
White House Quant. Former Fed Chair Candidate. Shepherd for individual investors. Engineer enthusiastic about providing energy to the world.
Houston, TX Katılım Mayıs 2020
2K Takip Edilen27.4K Takipçiler
@RealMattMoney 10 year time horizon is boring you could die tomorrow
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Retail:
2026: “Why would I buy $next it’s pre-revenue?”
2027: “yeah but $next isn’t even net income positive yet”
2028: “yeah but the debt in $next is crazy… they need to get it under control.”
2029: “I’ll see what happens when $next train 5 comes online.”
2035: “Oh…”
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@guts__1x @stocktalkweekly @stevenfiorillo @RealMattMoney They’re doing it as an exercise and learning tool, not to convince ppl to sub to a group or Patreon. I think that’s what @stocktalkweekly is referring to
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Anyone doing "small account challenges" is an amateur or a charlatan. No real trader would even consider it.
Why on earth would a consistently profitable trader, with millions of dollars in capital, spend time & effort trying to turn $10K into $100K? Makes absolutely no sense.
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Matt Farley retweetledi
Our largest launch contract yet: 20x new HASTE launches for @DeptofWar to accelerate hypersonics for America.
We're delivering reliable, modern hypersonic capabilities to the nation with speed and affordability - and the first mission in this block of launches is just months away🚀
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People making portfolio moves because they are bored will never make sense to me…
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@coopeeva @stevenfiorillo @RealMattMoney @PaperGainsInc Bruh! I was that stream chat and it was a masterclass.
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$NEXT
Full disclaimer, heard @stevenfiorillo @RealMattMoney and @PaperGainsInc discussing this one on stream tonight. But for me that conversation legitimized the fundamentals as well as the chart
Beautiful rounded bottom on the weekly inside a large long term wedge
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Venture Global ($VG): How the CP2 FID Sets the Stage to Dethrone Cheniere ($LNG)
$VG probabli.xyz/?article=3
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@SajanJiva For $3.9m I’ll buy a jet and fly everyone else to the F1 races.
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@RealMattMoney could be your goal.
Rob Freund@RobertFreundLaw
$3.9 million to fly private to every F1 race on the calendar 👀
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@PaperGainsInc @ColinEdsman @stevenfiorillo Almost bought another 10k shares this AM.
Snooze you lose!
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This is underreprented, IMO, most economists predict LNG imports to Europe DECREASING by 15-20% between now and 2030.
If AI and data centers are here to stay, I believe, even with efficiencies made in energy usage and renewables, you would have an atleast 15-20% INCREASE in LNG imports over the same time period.
That is a 30-40% swing in usage not represented in this graphic.
Thank you.
$VG $NEXT
Stephen Stapczynski@SStapczynski
Shell says LNG demand could grow by as much as 85% through 2050 🌍 🚢 Asia is expected to be the main driver of demand, and further investments in new projects will be needed in the 2030s and 2040s to meet higher consumption, Shell said
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Matt Farley retweetledi
Mobilize by Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar and Defense Lead Madeline Hart is out.
America is in an undeclared state of emergency. Mobilize is a bold call to arms—to resurrect our industrial base and win the defense technology race that will define the twenty-first century.
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Matt Farley retweetledi
Amazing Responsiveness by $RKLB CFO responding to the investor relations email himself super quickly to answer a retail investor question.
Show me another CFO of a $45B company that does stuff like this. Unreal.
Rocket L🅰️b 🦛@TobyDDRice
@daveginvesting Turns our Adam replies direct if you contact the Investor email. Confirmed they want lots of cash on hand for acquisition opportunities.🤑🤑🤑
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@RoInOrbit I don’t host the call, that is someone else.
@JacobKeeton20 and @FranciscoSpace5
I mostly focus on the weekly podcast.
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@RealMattMoney What time are your Tuesdays rocket lab calls? I want to add it to my calendar but seem to miss them often.
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$RKLB
Visuals from probabli.xyz
Matt Farley@RealMattMoney
Adam Spice continues to show why he is the best in the game. Rocket Lab's total debt decreased substantially in this most recent quarter going from $516m in 3Q25 to $254m - a decrease of 51%. Also the capped calls, of which were originally a $355m 4.25% convertible senior note due in 2029 decreased from a net carrying amount of $347m in 3Q25, to $152m in the 4th quarter. Assumed fair value of the convertible notes has decreased from $3.3B to $2.2B, a decrease of 33%. sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv… $RKLB
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Fiorillo for NYC Mayor 2030.
Steven Fiorillo@stevenfiorillo
My post on Friday regarding the estate tax proposal in New York got 600,000+ views, so clearly this struck a nerve. Some individuals asked me to back up what I said so I am going to discuss what happens when states push tax policy past the breaking point. Here is what the data shows and it’s worse than most people realize. According to IRS migration data, New York has lost $111 billion in net adjusted gross income over the last decade from residents moving to other states. That’s not hypothetical, that’s $111 billion in taxable income that used to fund schools, subways, police, and infrastructure that is now funding those things in Florida and Texas rather than New York. California lost $102 billion over the same period. Florida gained $196 billion. Texas gained $54 billion. That’s not a coincidence, it’s a pattern. Between 2018 and 2024, 561 companies relocated their headquarters across the country. The San Francisco Bay Area lost 156 corporate headquarters. Los Angeles lost 106. New York City lost 27. Meanwhile Dallas alone gained 100, Austin gained 81, and Nashville gained 35. This didn’t come to a halt in 2025 or 2026. Palantir $PLTR which was the largest publicly traded company in Colorado, announced in February that it was moving its headquarters from Denver to Miami. It was PLTR’s second move in six years after leaving Silicon Valley in 2020. The governor of Colorado said he found out through a social media post. ExxonMobil’s $XOM board unanimously recommended that shareholders approve reincorporating the company from New Jersey to Texas after 144 years at the vote in May. Exxon has physically operated out of Texas since 1989, and its CEO said Texas has created a policy environment that allows them to maximize shareholder value. Chevron $CVX completed its move from California to Houston. In-N-Out Burger is opening a 100,000-square-foot eastern headquarters near Nashville and is leaving California. These aren’t outliers anymore as this is becoming the new normal. It’s not just corporate headquarters moving. Entire financial ecosystems are relocating. Citadel, one of the most profitable hedge funds in the world, moved its headquarters from Chicago to Miami in 2022 and has been building out aggressively ever since. They’re constructing a massive new waterfront headquarters in Miami’s Brickell financial district. Elliott Management moved to West Palm Beach. Carl Icahn moved Icahn Enterprises from New York to Sunny Isles Beach. Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management relocated to St. Petersburg. Goldman Sachs $GS is building a $500 million campus in Dallas designed to house over 5,000 employees. JPMorgan Chase $JPM and Wells Fargo $WFC have both invested hundreds of millions into massive new campuses in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Wells Fargo is also moving its wealth management division from San Francisco to West Palm Beach. NYSE Texas a reincorporation of the 143-year old Chicago Stock Exchange officially launched in Dallas in early 2025. The Texas Stock Exchange which is a brand new national securities exchange backed by over $160 million from BlackRock $BLK , Citadel Securities, and Charles Schwab $SCHW is set to begin trading by the end of this year. Nasdaq has also expanded its Texas presence with operations in Irving. When you have that level of financial infrastructure being built in a single metro area, that’s not a trend it’s an ecosystem being constructed from scratch to compete directly with New York. Each of these moves represents not just a company but thousands of high-paying jobs, billions in local economic activity, and a signal to every other firm still on the fence that states with competitive rather than restrictive policy are creating enticing operating environments. Currently over 1 million residents have left New York for other states since 2020 according to the latest Census estimates. International immigration has partially offset the population headcount, but it hasn’t replaced the tax base. The people leaving earn significantly more on average than the people arriving. Almost 1,700 millionaires changed their address out of New York in 2024 alone. Millionaires paid 44.6% of all personal income tax collected in the state last year. The proposed response to this fragility is to drop the estate tax threshold from $7.1 million to $750,000, raise the top rate to 50%, add a new 2% income tax surcharge on millionaires, increase corporate taxes, and add a capital gains surcharge. Under these proposals, the combined federal, state, and city top marginal rate on high earners in New York City would approach 54%. That’s a policy framework that ignores everything the last decade of data has told us. The Dallas mayor just publicly predicted an “avalanche” of NYC financial firms heading to Texas under these policies. Florida realtors are seeing a surge of inquiries from wealthy New Yorkers. Cities like Miami, Austin, and Nashville are building entire ecosystems including schools, cultural centers, and financial services clusters which are designed specifically to attract the people New York is pushing out. Ken Griffin and Stephen Ross just launched a $10 million campaign called “Ambitious Accelerated” to recruit more businesses to what they’re calling Florida’s “Tech Gold Coast.” They’re not waiting for New York to figure it out. They’re actively recruiting our talent, our capital, and our tax base. That’s what makes this moment so critical. We are in the middle of the most competitive environment for jobs, businesses, and investment that this country has ever seen. States are actively building infrastructure to attract employers and high earners. This is the time to compete, not to double down on the same policy approach that has been pushing wealth and businesses to lower-tax states for a decade. Texas entered its latest legislative session with a $24 billion surplus while having no personal or corporate income tax. Think about that for a moment, no personal or corporate income tax and they have a $24 billion surplus. Florida added more new businesses than any other state in 2024, with over 266,000 formed in a single year. These states didn’t create an attractive business landscape out of thin air. They made deliberate policy choices to create environments where businesses want to operate, where employers want to hire, and where working people can actually build something without the ground shifting underneath them every budget cycle. This matters because of what it means for everyday people. When a company relocates its headquarters, it doesn’t just move a sign, the entire company leaves, from the executive team to the support staff. It doesn’t stop there because that's only internal. Externally, all of the trades that may do work for the company will no longer receive those phone calls. The restaurants will no longer see those repeat customers. The tax revenue from those paychecks won’t be collected, and future job growth in the community from that company will cease to exist. When Dallas gained 100 corporate headquarters over six years, that meant tens of thousands of new jobs, new residents spending money, new homes being purchased, new small businesses opening to serve those people. That’s how local economies actually grow. That’s how neighborhoods stay alive, and when a corporate headquarters leaves a city, the exact opposite happens. The jobs thin out, the spending dries up, the small businesses that depended on that foot traffic start closing, and the tax base that funded public services shrinks. New York has every natural advantage in the world. The talent, infrastructure, culture, and institutions are all here, but it won’t be enough if the policy environment drives away the employers and investors who create opportunities for everyone else. The states that are growing right now aren’t growing by accident. They made a decision to be competitive. They kept tax burdens manageable, they created regulatory clarity for businesses, and they built an environment where employers want to expand and hire. New York has every tool to do the same thing. The question is whether the people making the decisions recognize that we’re in a competition and right now, we’re not acting like it. Here’s the part nobody in Albany wants to hear. The people who leave don’t just take their tax returns with them. They take their fundraising networks, philanthropy, job creation, and spending to a new economy. A city that once attracted the world’s most ambitious people risks becoming a place they leave once they’ve made it, or worse, a place they never lay down roots. That’s not ideology. It’s an economic reality that the IRS, Census, and corporate relocation data have been telling us. I said it in my first post, and I’ll say it again. When you tax people past the point where the math makes sense, they leave. When they leave, the burden falls on everyone who doesn’t have the resources to relocate. It’s time to take a common-sense approach to policy and make the great state of New York competitive again. New York has a decision to make. Either it continues down this path and alienates more taxpayers or it becomes more competitive. I love this state, but I am extremely worried for it’s future. We should be building a thriving ecosystem with an abundance of opportunities for New Yorkers, but instead we are pushing entrepreneurs and businesses to states that are more competitive with policy. Is this really the path we want to take not only for the current residents but for the next generation? @amitisinvesting @basispointpod @chamath @Jason @BillAckman @kevinolearytv @patrickbetdavid @PBDsPodcast
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My first interview with @Peter_J_Beck, Founder & CEO of @RocketLab.
Rocket Lab is scaling launch cadence faster than SpaceX scaled Falcon 9.
0:44 The biggest bottleneck to increasing launch cadence and mass to orbit
1:25 Growth of new space startups
3:05 Why governments have been ineffective at scaling launch
3:53 Tall Poppy Syndrome
4:38 Starting Rocket Lab without having $100 million
7:24 Scaling Electron vs focusing on Neutron
9:17 Rocket Lab hustle
11:10 Creating a culture of “F*ck it, let’s do it”
11:40 Worst supplier experiences
13:54 Having an engine explode before an important meeting
18:52 Rocket Lab’s first mission to the moon
20:55 Chewing glass and forcing the outcome to be good
22:57 Similarities in how Elon and Peter operate
25:05 Elon time and how to structure timelines
27:13 Designing a culture where everyone runs towards the fire
28:44 Making the Ferrari of rockets — the importance of creating beautiful things
31:20 “You don’t need to equate a price tag to beauty”
32:12 Why Peter hates launch day
34:48 “After a launch failure this place is a morgue”
35:22 Moving forward after a failure
36:40 Transitioning from an R&D organization to scaling rocket production
38:07 Production hell with rockets
39:09 Taking learnings from Electron to Neutron
41:03 Having dinner with Elon
42:00 Keeping the hiring bar extraordinarily high
44:05 “My job is to fix sh*t”
44:56 Rocket Lab’s first NASA launch
45:55 “The great thing about America is anything is possible”
47:40 Coming to Silicon Valley — meeting with Vinod Khosla
51:22 Why he decided to take $RKLB public
54:12 Creating a company that will outlive you
55:41 Turning Rocket Lab into a profitable business
57:23 The best space companies will all build their own rockets
1:00:35 Scaling Neutron
1:01:32 Why they’re using carbon fiber instead of steel
1:02:56 “Going public was a great capital unlock”
1:04:10 The importance of relentless optimism
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