
Rudolph Bittler
1.1K posts





I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket. I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st". Here's what happened:



The @Strategy x @Polymarket story isn't over yet. The hottest topic right now is the resolution of the @Polymarket on whether MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31. Twitter is flooded with calls to buy YES on this market, lured by the seemingly insane 1/200+ risk-reward. I want to warn everyone again: there is no risk-reward here because there's virtually zero chance of YES. Polymarket rules clarification is strict - only confirmations within the exact market timeframe count. New users are not familiar with @UMAprotocol voting process. Right now UMA vote is at 99.5% for NO. Polymarket highlighted that no information from MSTR, on-chain data, or credible reporting confirmed a sale within the market's timeframe. Confirmation after the deadline doesn't count. Getting the fair outcome and getting the market-correct outcome are two different things. Some come to Polymarket to be right, others come to make money. Mixing them up is a mistake. @Strategy definetly sold BTC in May. But it can not be used in this specific market - information came outside the market's timeframe. For now top long-term Polymarket traders hold NO. These traders have a multi-year proven track record. Actually 2/3 of them hold NO and literally 0 have YES. No hedging. Not even considering other possibilities. Their combined NO position: $22M - over 55% of their total portfolios. Normal exposure is 0.1-1% per bet, 5% at high conviction. 55% here shows they see this as a near-certain bond: buy at 99.5¢, redeem at $1 in a few hours. Why hold for just +0.5%? Because of the large size, that's $100k+ profit in hours. This is exactly how sharp traders stack 6-7 figure PnL on "no-risk" events. I'm holding NO. Warned in the chat yesterday and broke it down in detail. My entries: first at 35¢, latest at 99.5¢. Be careful with YES. Don't buy it or sell right now if you hold any. Most people shilling it don't understand resolution history, haven't read the rules, and ignore the discussion. This is a classic case of people without edge trying to force an outcome they like - but it simply can't happen.







a topic that also a lot crypto influencers have and will cover polymarket vs crypto battle has been going on for a while





gambled here at 50k they just paid dex new name of X Money as confirmed by the SEC X Money went to 4.5M btw... 2P9h48GnH18sdofq2utYtnotYLvQBJT3LCFBTJwupump



spacex ipo just dropped and this is the motto behind it? sec.gov/Archives/edgar… x.com/SawyerMerritt/…


















