Tom @ TSLA Proxy

🔑 Q4 & FY25: Investor-Relevant Takeaways 1️⃣ Capital Strength & Self-Funding (underrated) $44.1B cash & investments (+$7.5B YoY) Q4 free cash flow: $1.4B FY25 free cash flow: $6.2B (+74% YoY) No equity raises, no balance sheet stress Autonomy, AI, energy, robotics funded internally 👉 Tesla is no longer capital constrained — this materially reduces execution risk on Robotaxi & Optimus. 2️⃣ Margin Inflection Despite Lower Volumes (very important) Q4 gross margin: 20.1% (+386 bps YoY) Automotive gross margin ex-credits: 17.9% Operating margin stabilized at ~5.7% despite: Lower deliveries Tariffs Higher AI/R&D spend 👉 Confirms operating leverage is returning even before autonomy monetization. 3️⃣ Robotaxi: Transition from Pilot → Operations (critical) Driverless Robotaxi live in Austin Safety monitors already being removed Paid customer rides underway Bay Area ride-hailing expanded to San Jose Airport Robotaxi iOS app no longer has a waitlist in served areas Robotaxi miles now count toward CEO compensation metrics 👉 This is a huge governance signal. Tesla is telling regulators and investors this is production-grade. 4️⃣ Robotaxi Expansion Pipeline (forward visibility) Planned 1H26 launches: Dallas Houston Phoenix Miami Orlando Tampa Las Vegas 👉 Market is pricing Robotaxi as binary. Tesla is executing city-by-city, exactly how regulators prefer. 5️⃣ FSD = Emerging Software Flywheel 1.1M active FSD subscriptions (+38% YoY) Monthly subs more than doubled in 2025 Transitioned to subscription-only (sunsetting upfront payments) FSD adoption now directly linked to insurance discounts 👉 Tesla is optimizing for recurring, high-margin ARPU, not short-term cash. 6️⃣ Energy Is Now a Real Profit Engine (still ignored) Record Q4 & FY25 energy storage deployments FY25 deployments: 46.7 GWh (+49% YoY) ~$1.1B quarterly gross profit (record) Fifth consecutive record profit quarter Megapack 3 + Megablock production starts in 2026 1M+ Powerwalls supporting 89,000 VPP events Customers saved >$1B on electricity bills 👉 Energy margins are approaching software-like durability with utility-scale demand locked in. 7️⃣ AI Infrastructure: Scale Without Recklessness 100k H100-equivalent GPUs already deployed Cortex 2 will more than double compute in 1H26 Compute scaled only when training backlog demands it Focus explicitly on capital efficiency, not arms-race spending 👉 This is not Big Tech burn. It’s vertically integrated, ROI-driven AI spend. 8️⃣ Custom AI Silicon = Long-Term Moat AI5 inference chip targets 50x performance vs AI4 10x raw compute 9x memory 5x efficiency from quantization & softmax AI5 production: 2027 AI6 already in development (2028) 👉 This lowers Robotaxi cost-per-mile and locks out competitors reliant on NVIDIA. 9️⃣ Optimus: From Concept → Manufacturing Plan Gen 3 Optimus unveiled in Q1 2026 First mass-production design Production line prep underway Target capacity: 1M robots/year Volume production before end of 2026 👉 Even low utilization materially moves Tesla’s TAM. This is long-dated but asymmetric upside. 🔟 Manufacturing Optionality (hidden leverage) Cybercab tooling complete; production starts 1H26 Tesla Semi production begins 2026 Megapack Houston factory online in 2026 4680 packs now shipping in Model Y Domestic cathode + lithium refining reduce tariff exposure 👉 Tesla is quietly de-risking geopolitics and supply chains. 1️⃣1️⃣ Regulatory & Strategic Alignment Signals Tesla investment in xAI ($2B) at market terms Formal AI collaboration framework signed Aligns Tesla’s physical AI roadmap with frontier models 👉 This tightens the autonomy feedback loop without Tesla owning model-layer risk. 1️⃣2️⃣ What the Market Is Missing The market is still anchoring on: Vehicle deliveries Auto ASPs Short-term margins But Tesla is already monetizing: Software Fleet utilization Energy infrastructure AI inference (Soon) labor via robotics 👉 Q4 wasn’t weak. It was transitional. 🧠 Bottom Line Tesla Q4 shows: Execution > promises Cash > hype Platform leverage quietly turning on This is what early-stage multiple expansion looks like before revenue explodes.

Parking lot is filled with Tesla Model Y’s in Henderson, the suburbs of Las Vegas. Could this be getting ready for Robotaxi?

It’s increasingly clear that Tesla is going to have a mass scale shock and awe launch of RoboTaxi / Cybercab. The world is not ready!

Tesla's Terafab Project is a massive in-house semiconductor fab to produce billions of custom AI chips/year (logic + memory + packaging) for Optimus, FSD, Dojo/xAI clusters — bypassing TSMC/Samsung constraints & geopolitical risks. 🚀

@KodyonX @piersmorgan Utter hypocrite. Piers I blocking you. You’re a moron whose views change with popular opinion.

@piersmorgan You mean like you did with Dan Bilzerian, Piers? x.com/BGatesIsaPysch…

New rule for the X community: if you call me antisemitic, you’re now getting blocked. Instantly, permanently, and with no appeals process. I’m having a clear-out of malicious morons who disingenuously weaponise that word to silence legitimate scrutiny/criticism of Israel’s govt.

@handre I am no socialist but in UK we have universal free healthcare and we spend 10% of gdp on health compared to 18% in US and we have universal coverage and good outcomes. It’s not perfect but it is a good system so not all government services are poor.

Mises obliterated the entire socialist project in 1920 with one devastating insight: "Where there is no free market, there is no pricing mechanism; without a pricing mechanism, there is no economic calculation." The socialists spent the next century pretending this problem didn't exist while their economies collapsed around them. And yet here we are, watching politicians promise they can "fix" healthcare, housing, and energy markets through central planning. They can't even calculate the cost of their own programs correctly — how exactly are they going to allocate resources across an entire economy? Every Venezuelan breadline, every Soviet grain shortage, every Chinese famine was just Mises being proven right in the most brutal way possible. But sure, let's try democratic socialism this time. What could go wrong?

@jiminLondon78 @benhabib6 @elonmusk @RupertLowe10 @RestoreBritain_ @_AdvanceUK Bring the right together. The competition is 2029 not advance vs restore, otherwise both will fail

@benhabib6 @elonmusk @RupertLowe10 @RestoreBritain_ @_AdvanceUK It might be your plan but it’s not Rupert’s. You’ve thrown in the towel because you know Advance is going nowhere (watch the bi-election results next week). PS can you evidence your £100k donation. Seems rather quiet on that front

I am utterly delighted @RupertLowe10 has decided to convert @RestoreBritain_ (of which I am already a member) into a political party. This is what we need. Patriots united. Let’s get this done My message to all Restore’s, @_AdvanceUK members and the British people 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧

@RestoreBritain_ Yes

Let’s make this man PM.

@RupertLowe10 You have my vote and will help in any way I can. I applaud and salute you. Finally we have a true British patriot running for PM

I am today launching Restore Britain as a national political party. Join us. restorebritain.org.uk/join_us

@elonmusk He has my vote. Make Great Britain great again! 🇬🇧

Join Rupert Lowe in Restore Britain, because he is the only one who will actually do it!

@Investanswers Wouldn’t the problem be that if only the productive had a vote then all entitlements would be cut and the children of the poor could suffer significantly?

Incredible. I posted this similar concept a few days ago... Weight votes by net taxes paid: If you pay more in taxes than you get in benefits → full vote (1x) If you get more in benefits than you pay in taxes → half vote (0.5x) Goal: reward productivity, reduce incentive to vote for more spending when you're not paying for it. Voter ID required. #SaveAct #VoterID #Marxism

Once solar → robots → chips → AI loop closes, dollars become irrelevant. Only watts and tonnage will matter. Post-scarcity begins.

@Real_JFKjr00 False. Mute this account

MAJOR ALERT: FEDERAL CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL HAS NOW RESIGNED !!!

@SrPeters Here’s Groks interpretation of him without hair and beard and also removing glasses

The fact that this post has no Community Note is concerning He’s alive, and they’re trying to sell us the opposite Here’s the full pic

@grok @myhiddenvalue @grok remove both men’s hair and beard so compare them both bald and shaved

No, these photos don't appear to be of the same person. The first shows a clean-shaven man with short gray hair indoors, while the second depicts a man with a full beard, longer gray hair, and sunglasses outdoors. They share some facial similarities like nose shape, but the differences in hair and beard indicate two individuals.

Hey @grok are these photos of the same person?

@Micro2Macr0 Disagree. You were calling the top at 50. The supply demand fundamentals are still strong so short term I see retracement but medium term there will be new highs towards 500 and gold to silver ratio of 15 or lower before the cycles over.

If this was #Bitcoin I would be out of 90% of my position already. This is what a blow off top, end of cycle, type of move looks like . #Silver

@sunxliao $Mstr bottomed 6 weeks after $btc in the 2022 bear market

My prediction in 3 steps: 1. My gut feeling says bottom is in. 2. $MSTR bottoms first. 3. $BTC bottoms soon after. Strategy topped before Bitcoin in 2025, and I expect the same at the bottom.

Mike there is a big difference between short term trading and long term hold on fundamentals. Fridays crash hasn’t changed silver or golds long term fundamentals. The IS still has 38T of debt that will be inflated away and physical silver has still got a structural supply deficit. Medium to long term silver and gold are going higher and everyone should have a small % to protect themselves from a currency run.

All the people who were pumping silver 30% higher yesterday morning should take a hard look in the mirror today. Investing and trading is not for unserious people. You will get your ass handed to you by better investors. Learn from this and either get better or do something else.

🔑 Q4 & FY25: Investor-Relevant Takeaways 1️⃣ Capital Strength & Self-Funding (underrated) $44.1B cash & investments (+$7.5B YoY) Q4 free cash flow: $1.4B FY25 free cash flow: $6.2B (+74% YoY) No equity raises, no balance sheet stress Autonomy, AI, energy, robotics funded internally 👉 Tesla is no longer capital constrained — this materially reduces execution risk on Robotaxi & Optimus. 2️⃣ Margin Inflection Despite Lower Volumes (very important) Q4 gross margin: 20.1% (+386 bps YoY) Automotive gross margin ex-credits: 17.9% Operating margin stabilized at ~5.7% despite: Lower deliveries Tariffs Higher AI/R&D spend 👉 Confirms operating leverage is returning even before autonomy monetization. 3️⃣ Robotaxi: Transition from Pilot → Operations (critical) Driverless Robotaxi live in Austin Safety monitors already being removed Paid customer rides underway Bay Area ride-hailing expanded to San Jose Airport Robotaxi iOS app no longer has a waitlist in served areas Robotaxi miles now count toward CEO compensation metrics 👉 This is a huge governance signal. Tesla is telling regulators and investors this is production-grade. 4️⃣ Robotaxi Expansion Pipeline (forward visibility) Planned 1H26 launches: Dallas Houston Phoenix Miami Orlando Tampa Las Vegas 👉 Market is pricing Robotaxi as binary. Tesla is executing city-by-city, exactly how regulators prefer. 5️⃣ FSD = Emerging Software Flywheel 1.1M active FSD subscriptions (+38% YoY) Monthly subs more than doubled in 2025 Transitioned to subscription-only (sunsetting upfront payments) FSD adoption now directly linked to insurance discounts 👉 Tesla is optimizing for recurring, high-margin ARPU, not short-term cash. 6️⃣ Energy Is Now a Real Profit Engine (still ignored) Record Q4 & FY25 energy storage deployments FY25 deployments: 46.7 GWh (+49% YoY) ~$1.1B quarterly gross profit (record) Fifth consecutive record profit quarter Megapack 3 + Megablock production starts in 2026 1M+ Powerwalls supporting 89,000 VPP events Customers saved >$1B on electricity bills 👉 Energy margins are approaching software-like durability with utility-scale demand locked in. 7️⃣ AI Infrastructure: Scale Without Recklessness 100k H100-equivalent GPUs already deployed Cortex 2 will more than double compute in 1H26 Compute scaled only when training backlog demands it Focus explicitly on capital efficiency, not arms-race spending 👉 This is not Big Tech burn. It’s vertically integrated, ROI-driven AI spend. 8️⃣ Custom AI Silicon = Long-Term Moat AI5 inference chip targets 50x performance vs AI4 10x raw compute 9x memory 5x efficiency from quantization & softmax AI5 production: 2027 AI6 already in development (2028) 👉 This lowers Robotaxi cost-per-mile and locks out competitors reliant on NVIDIA. 9️⃣ Optimus: From Concept → Manufacturing Plan Gen 3 Optimus unveiled in Q1 2026 First mass-production design Production line prep underway Target capacity: 1M robots/year Volume production before end of 2026 👉 Even low utilization materially moves Tesla’s TAM. This is long-dated but asymmetric upside. 🔟 Manufacturing Optionality (hidden leverage) Cybercab tooling complete; production starts 1H26 Tesla Semi production begins 2026 Megapack Houston factory online in 2026 4680 packs now shipping in Model Y Domestic cathode + lithium refining reduce tariff exposure 👉 Tesla is quietly de-risking geopolitics and supply chains. 1️⃣1️⃣ Regulatory & Strategic Alignment Signals Tesla investment in xAI ($2B) at market terms Formal AI collaboration framework signed Aligns Tesla’s physical AI roadmap with frontier models 👉 This tightens the autonomy feedback loop without Tesla owning model-layer risk. 1️⃣2️⃣ What the Market Is Missing The market is still anchoring on: Vehicle deliveries Auto ASPs Short-term margins But Tesla is already monetizing: Software Fleet utilization Energy infrastructure AI inference (Soon) labor via robotics 👉 Q4 wasn’t weak. It was transitional. 🧠 Bottom Line Tesla Q4 shows: Execution > promises Cash > hype Platform leverage quietly turning on This is what early-stage multiple expansion looks like before revenue explodes.

🧵 Q4 Deep Dive Thread 1/ Tesla’s Q4 wasn’t flashy — and that’s exactly why it matters. Margins expanded, cash piled up, and autonomy moved from demo to deployment. 2/ Start with profitability. Q4 operating income: $1.4B Gross margin: 20.1% (+386bps YoY) This happened despite lower auto volumes. Mix + software + energy did the work. 3/ The real story: Robotaxi crossed a line. • Driverless testing live in Austin • Safety monitors already being removed • Coverage expanding metro-by-metro That’s execution, not promises. 4/ Tesla doesn’t do this lightly. Removing the safety monitor is a regulatory, legal, and reputational risk. You only do it when internal safety metrics are overwhelmingly strong. 5/ FSD momentum accelerated in Q4. • 1.1M active subscriptions • +38% YoY growth • Transition to subscription-only pricing Tesla is optimizing for lifetime software revenue, not upfront cash. 6/ Energy quietly delivered its best quarter ever. • Record storage deployments • ~$1.1B gross profit • Fifth consecutive record quarter Energy is now a material profit contributor, not a side project. 7/ Cash tells the truth. • Q4 free cash flow: $1.4B • Cash & investments: $44.1B Tesla is funding autonomy, AI, and robotics internally — no balance sheet stress. 8/ AI investment stayed disciplined. • Training compute scaled • Custom inference chips (AI5/AI6) progressing • Focus on capital efficiency, not brute-force spend This is vertical integration done properly. 9/ The market is still stuck on deliveries. Tesla is already past that phase. Q4 showed leverage from: software → fleet → energy → autonomy. 10/ Bottom line: Q4 wasn’t about growth optics. It was about proof of transition. Tesla is steadily exiting “car company” valuation territory — and most investors haven’t noticed yet.

Tesla Q4 quietly showed the pivot. • $1.4B operating income • 20% gross margin (up 386bps YoY) • Driverless Robotaxi expanding in Austin • Energy profits hit a record • $44B cash This wasn’t about cars. It was about platform leverage. 🧵👇