vGarsel

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vGarsel

vGarsel

@vGarsel_

Degenerate Macro Mind | Reading the Tape of a Broken System | On a Voyage to Critical Mass @gametheoryweb3

เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2016
2.8K กำลังติดตาม190 ผู้ติดตาม
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vGarsel
vGarsel@vGarsel_·
Everyone keeps saying there won’t be an altseason this cycle. “This cycle is different,” yadi yadi ya. I think they’re wrong and the confluence is lining up. Here’s what I’m seeing: 🔹ETH/BTC ETH has historically been the barometer for altcoins. This cycle, it underperformed and we haven’t seen a market wide altcoin run as a result. ETH/BTC has bounced hard one of its biggest moves in years but it’s still in a macro downtrend. This aint another deadcat bounce but the early innings of continued ETH outperformance. 🔹ISM & DXY = Hidden Drivers The ISM has been in contraction for longer than usual. That’s typically when capital avoids the edges of the risk curve, altcoins included. Why has it dragged on? One reason: DXY has been stuck in a range since late 2022. Not enough dollar weakness to fuel the cycle. Once DXY breaks lower and ISM flips 50 durably you typically get capital rotation into small caps, speculative risk, and you guessed it... Alts. 🔹Russell 2000 = TradFi’s Altcoins Small caps (Russell 2000) are highly correlated with ISM turns. Same behavior is visible in crypto. TOTAL3ESBTC (TOTAL3 / BTC) starts trending higher when altcoins risk is in favor. It’s the best chart right now to show where we are structurally. 🔹 "Why This Cycle ‘Feels Different’ (But Isn’t)" A lot of people are saying “this cycle is different.” No altseason, too much altcoin dilution (which is fair), no big gains... and so they write it off. What’s actually changed? Not much just the timing mechanics. 🌀 The ISM has stayed in contraction longer than usual. 📈 DXY hasn’t broken down meaningfully it’s been rangebound for almost 2 years. 💥 And in Q1 you’ve got tariffs which temporarily nuked the business cycle further. These macro lags have stretched out the rotation and that’s why the market feels off. But structurally, nothing’s changed. When ISM turns, ETH outperforms and alts will follow. 🔹The Real Risk = Being Underexposed You don’t need to call the exact day altseason starts. The real risk isn’t being early it’s being unexposed when things move. The ETH/BTC bottom + macro backdrop + ISM upturn = a high confluence setup. So no, this isnt a dead cycle. It’s a compressed spring. Maybe (probably) i am be wrong short term. But not positioning at all feels like a bigger mistake.
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vGarsel
vGarsel@vGarsel_·
@CryptoTeluguO @PixieChess i just played you. and you beat me hahah. ggs. i didnt fall for the knight of the board to get my rook trick tho
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Mercury
Mercury@TraderMercury·
if you're ever feeling down, just remember: someone bought Silver at ~$120 and is going to wait another 15 years for the next bullmarket.
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vGarsel รีทวีตแล้ว
ByThen
ByThen@bythenAI·
Bythen Treasure Platform is LIVE ➡️ treasure.bythen.ai A gamified platform powered by Bythen that allows player to earn NFT airdrops from global IP @Ultraman_AI by @TsuburayaGlobal and Web3 IP Kappy by @sebbsssss, simply by completing missions and tasks.
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vGarsel
vGarsel@vGarsel_·
@KrownCryptoCave Could you go into invalidation of your thesis in one of your next videos? Thanks sir
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Krown
Krown@KrownCryptoCave·
time spent in current bottoming zone = 28 days prior grinds lasted 42 & 70 days respectively. If (assumption) we mark those to the middle then around sept 8th-15th is when it may make sense for a reversal. That timing lines up with next fed decision & historical mkt turning points in past mid septs my takeaway - next sideways and down 4-7 month corrective phase begins around that time
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Krown@KrownCryptoCave

should grind out this zone for 4-8 weeks more

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wearebloopers
wearebloopers@wearebloopers·
Six weeks ago, we started this journey together. We started with a Discord and a single Blooper. Now, the village is real. We're kicking off a new series of community activations on X, starting with the launch of the official Blooper community hub. Join now. The real fun begins tomorrow. x.com/i/communities/…
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vGarsel
vGarsel@vGarsel_·
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TimelessEON
TimelessEON@BabyFaceSage·
Hey Web3, she said YES. I’m getting married. Got a wedding to plan then. Wish me luck.
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Drake on Digital
Drake on Digital@drakeondigital·
would you buy this chart?
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IcoBeast.eth🦇🔊
IcoBeast.eth🦇🔊@icobeast·
Bitcoin: - kinda feels like we get an ATH break on Monday - pretty sure when it finally does break above this range for good we hit 200k in a shorter amount of time than we’ve been stuck in this range. Think people will be caught offsides by how thin the orderbook is above 115
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John
John@CryptoGodJohn·
What a classic
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vGarsel
vGarsel@vGarsel_·
I like how you framed this TL is overwhelmed by incentive farmers posting low quality spam and AI created content They are drowning out the voice of quality people who have "small" accounts If InfoFi can fix this issue it would be massive. Everyone would get exactly what they deserve Thats the way it should be
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emilios.eth
emilios.eth@emilios_eth·
there’s no such thing as a small account only: - minds too wired to rank by numbers - people who shrink themselves before they even speak - TLs too lazy to listen followers ≠ depth ≠ skill ≠ substance InfoFi’s job is to fix this and it actually can
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vGarsel
vGarsel@vGarsel_·
$BTC confirmed a hidden bullish div on the 2D while simultaneously closing above a key high. The structure has shifted. I don't expect BTC to fck around here. It should get going early next week by breaking out of this range. We are technically at resistance and BTC starts closing daily candles below 108, the chances increase of another rotation down toward the range lows. As of right now i think thats unlikely. As part of this ongoing thread of analysis.
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vGarsel@vGarsel_

Bitcoin CME futures just closed the daily above 109.5K. Spot closing above the level is just a formality now. Breakout loading... Fire up the engines. Clear the runway. Course set for: 160K. 🚀

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