County Line Forecast

@wjkak_ @atwaSDOK @IAPolls2022 Ohhh someone’s hostile lol. What does a presidential race in 2024 have to do with a 2026 senate midterm? We’re dealing with completely different dynamics and voter base. Why don’t you show me the 2018 Texas senate map, which is most closely analogous to 2026?

@CountyLineFcst @atwaSDOK @IAPolls2022 Called using my brain instead of your shitty model

GALLUP PARTY ID TREND (with Indie leans) 🔴 Q4 2024: R+4 (GOP 47 – Dem 43) 🟡 Q1 2025: Tie (GOP 45 - Dem 45) 🔵 Q4 2025: D+8 (Dem 48 – GOP 40) 🔵 Q1 2026: D+10 (Dem 49 – GOP 39) Net 14-point swing towards Democrats

This is a beta model, so top lines are not fully calibrated yet. There are other factors, such as poll bias, wave dynamics, and midterm penalty that need to be parsed out. The model is also missing the most recent poll showing Husted up by 1. However, even with those variables still needing to be factored in, this model is based off of 35 years of Senate, presidential, and governor races in Ohio. It is also backtested against 4 OH Senate races in accurate within 1 point of each of them. If you don’t think Brown can win in Ohio Senate race, maybe you should read up on the history of Ohio Senate races.

@CountyLineFcst How laughable 😆 do you think Oklahoma will be blue as well?

Completed a 3rd beta tested state today: Ohio! This race is a lot closer than most people think, and the model actually gives the edge to the democrat, Sherrod Brown. We’ll see if that holds when the final perameters are set, but OH looking like a true battleground state! Full model and website out on 5/1! #OHSen #Midterms2026 #sherrodbrown #jonhusted #Senate #polls

JD Vance’s unpopularity, even in his own state of Ohio, isn’t helping Husted’s chances in the Ohio midterms. Polling and an extremely favorable environment actually show a slight lead for Brown in my county-by-county Ohio senate map. Full interactive website up and running on 5/1!

CNN POLL: Do you approve or disapprove of the way JD Vance is handling his job as Vice President? 🟢 Approve: 37% (-25) 🟤 Disapprove: 62% —— • GOP: 83-16 (+67) • Dem: 4-95 (-91) • Indie: 27-71 (-44) — • Men: 40-59 (-19) • Women: 35-64 (-29) — • Age 18-34: 23-76 (-53) • Age 35-49: 38-62 (-24) • Age 50-64: 45-54 (-9) • Age 65+: 45-52 (-7) — • White College: 40-59 (-19) • White no college: 53-46 (+7) — • College: 34-65 (-31) • No college: 39-60 (-21) — • White: 48-51 (-3) • Ppl of color: 22-77 (-55) — • Income under 50K: 30-68 (-38) • Income 50K+: 42-58 (-16) — • Liberal: 7-93 (-86) • Moderate: 31-68 (-37) • Conservative: 67-32 (+35) 3/26-30 | 1,201 A

@Tennesseeiz1 @IAPolls2022 @tencor_7144 ? Sir, this is a Wendy’s

@CountyLineFcst @IAPolls2022 @tencor_7144 Fking Librials come to our state and now trying to turn it into a California or New York. If that's what you want then stay there and quit fking up our red states. 20% of Librials in NC are from Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey.

NORTH CAROLINA POLL - Senate 🟦 Roy Cooper: 48% 🟥 Michael Whatley: 34% —— NC Generic Ballot 🟦 DEM: 43% 🟥 GOP: 38% —— Supreme Court Generic Ballot 🟦 DEM: 43% 🟥 GOP: 36% —— Net Approval Gov. Stein: (+22) Sen. Tillis: (-5) Pres. Trump: (-13) Catawba College/YouGov | 3/9-18 catawba.edu/news/all-news/…

New - Generic Ballot poll 🔵 Democrats 47% 🔴 Republicans 42% Morning Consult #B - A - 3/22

🇺🇸 NATIONAL POLL by CNN/SSRS Pres. Trump Approve: 35% (-1) Disapprove: 64% (+1) —— Trump's net approval on key issues 🟤 Foreign affairs: -28 (new low) 🟤 Economy: -38 (new low) 🔴 Inflation: -46 (new low) 3/26-30 | 1,201 A cnn.com/2026/04/01/pol…

@mattyglesias DC has a height limit on buildings, so 22 stories is impossible

Love it. But each of these highish rises was a lost opportunity to have a basically similar but somewhat taller structure that would have generated more housing, more jobs, and more tax revenue. Things people don't like about an 10-story modern building is no worse at 22.

The model is based on 35 years of data compiled from senate, presidential, and governor races in NC. It’s then weighed against current polls and the national environment. It’s also been backtested against 4 NC senate races with an average miss of 1-2 points. If the model showed Whatley winning, I’d post it just the same. It’s data driven and tested, but people like you get mad just because the data doesn’t show what you like. Sorry your feelings are hurt.

@CountyLineFcst @IAPolls2022 @tencor_7144 I've seen online forecasters on here make fools of themselves for years. You will dissappear after being dead wrong.

@kingsofkc1738 @electionsjoe No link yet. The model is in its testing phase now. It will be fully live on 5/1 at countylineforecast.com

@CountyLineFcst @electionsjoe Link?

YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW MUCH I WANT TO SEE THIS

This country is really just going to swing back and forth every four years huh

FWIW IMO the generic ballot is likely heading for D+10 ATM. In like the actual results controlling for uncontesteds not polling.

The Massachusetts State House 5th Essex District Special Election is currently at D +38. A 4-point shift left from 2024 (Harris +34).

President Donald Trump said that he plans to take the extraordinary step of attending Supreme Court oral arguments Wednesday in a case that could end birthright citizenship in the U.S. nbcnews.com/politics/supre…

@NBCNews Let’s see how this plays out in the midterms. According to my most recent county by county models, not so good:

@atwaSDOK @IAPolls2022 This is a beta model, so top line numbers are sometimes not fully calibrated/running off of stale data. But I’d love to hear your thoughts on why this won’t be a close race.

@CountyLineFcst @IAPolls2022 You're a crack smoker.

@IAPolls2022 And it’s these margins with independents that are leading to the Dem surge in my Senate models. Ohio and Michigan shown below. Full interactive county-by -county results for every state in the 26 midterms goes live on 5/1!

📊 Gallup Q1 2026 Party ID (with independent leaners) 🟦 Democrat: 49% 🟥 Republican: 39% D+10 — the widest Democratic edge in 16 years (was R+4 in Q4, 2024)

Top 20 counties that have shifted the most to the right from 1984 —> 2024

@USA_Polling Our model is also looking strong for Dems

That bumps NC from Dem Tilt to Dem Lean on the model

@speedobandit @IAPolls2022 @tencor_7144 Lol, what’s “pathetic” about it? That it doesn’t show Republicans close or ahead? Data doesn’t care about your feelings 🤷‍♂️

@CountyLineFcst @IAPolls2022 @tencor_7144 Pathetic, get a life.