Dave Yount
96 posts
Dave Yount
@DavesAnalytics
Founder @SportAnaIytics. Former @Brewers and @SABR. @ASU @WPCareySchool Graduate with a B.S. in Data Analytics. Dad to the coolest 5 year old boy named Dawson.
Sumali Nisan 2023
1.1K Sinusundan235 Mga Tagasunod
I’m sure many of you have seen this, but if you haven’t cool read, and research on teams drafting at the top hitting on a QB are much greater than what #Vikings have done historically is obvious, but the odds drop off is insane.
Our strategy does need to change.
Props Dave👍
Dave Yount@DavesAnalytics
Hey Phil, Judd, Declan, and Thor — huge fan of Purple Daily. As someone who’s worked in analytics in pro sports, I wanted to propose a new angle for discussion. First, I want to preface my research by saying that I bought a JJ McCarthy jersey after the draft. I really wanted him to be the guy. I am also a big fan of Thor's draft evaluations. So please don't take this as hate. Just wanted to add some data and talking points to your recent discussions on the matter. I built a table of every QB5 since 1980, and if you define a franchise QB as 3+ Pro Bowls, the data is pretty clear. Teams are 183% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB2. Teams are 240% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB3. Teams are 467% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB4. The drop-off is incredibly steep. QB5's almost never pan out, and JJ McCarthy was drafted higher than any QB5 in history. Combining those odds with the expectations of a top 10 overall pick is a massive organizational failure by the Vikings front office. I don't want to say the kid never had a chance, but the historical odds of his draft position show that he only had an 8% chance of becoming a franchise QB, a 4% chance of becoming a star QB, and a 2% chance of winning a Super Bowl as a starting QB. I've heard so much about patience, sample size, development, and age when it comes to this McCarthy conundrum. Not nearly enough is being said about his draft position. Even if Kevin O'Connell was a miracle worker and the greatest QB developer of all-time, the odds of him developing a star QB from the QB5 slot is less than 5%. Only 2 QB's drafted 5th at their position in the last 45 years turned out to be stars (Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts). Only one (Hurts) won a Super Bowl as a starting QB. Beyond those two outliers, the best QB5 outcomes like Marc Bulger, Andy Dalton, and Matt Schaub were borderline franchise QB's at best. The Vikings made the exact same mistake with Christian Ponder (QB4 at #12). If you're not in position to take QB1, the worst thing you can do is get desperate and talk yourself into QB4 or QB5. History says that has an astronomically low probability of turning into a franchise quarterback. If the Vikings want to find their franchise QB in the draft, they need to make sure he’s the consensus QB1. Trade up or don’t draft one at all. Funny side note: Kevin O'Connell was also the 5th QB taken in his draft, and he didn't pan out either. * Also for those asking, why 3+ Pro Bowls for franchise designation? With the recent trend of star QB's opting out of the Pro Bowl and borderline / mid QB's replacing them, you can't just go by 1 or 2 Pro Bowls. That would include players like Jacoby Brissett, Mac Jones, Geno Smith, and Tua Tagovailoa. I don't think anybody would classify those guys as true franchise QB's. @PhilMackey @jzulgad @DexsTweets @thorku @SKORNorth
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This is incredible insight, wow!
Dave Yount@DavesAnalytics
Hey Phil, Judd, Declan, and Thor — huge fan of Purple Daily. As someone who’s worked in analytics in pro sports, I wanted to propose a new angle for discussion. First, I want to preface my research by saying that I bought a JJ McCarthy jersey after the draft. I really wanted him to be the guy. I am also a big fan of Thor's draft evaluations. So please don't take this as hate. Just wanted to add some data and talking points to your recent discussions on the matter. I built a table of every QB5 since 1980, and if you define a franchise QB as 3+ Pro Bowls, the data is pretty clear. Teams are 183% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB2. Teams are 240% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB3. Teams are 467% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB4. The drop-off is incredibly steep. QB5's almost never pan out, and JJ McCarthy was drafted higher than any QB5 in history. Combining those odds with the expectations of a top 10 overall pick is a massive organizational failure by the Vikings front office. I don't want to say the kid never had a chance, but the historical odds of his draft position show that he only had an 8% chance of becoming a franchise QB, a 4% chance of becoming a star QB, and a 2% chance of winning a Super Bowl as a starting QB. I've heard so much about patience, sample size, development, and age when it comes to this McCarthy conundrum. Not nearly enough is being said about his draft position. Even if Kevin O'Connell was a miracle worker and the greatest QB developer of all-time, the odds of him developing a star QB from the QB5 slot is less than 5%. Only 2 QB's drafted 5th at their position in the last 45 years turned out to be stars (Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts). Only one (Hurts) won a Super Bowl as a starting QB. Beyond those two outliers, the best QB5 outcomes like Marc Bulger, Andy Dalton, and Matt Schaub were borderline franchise QB's at best. The Vikings made the exact same mistake with Christian Ponder (QB4 at #12). If you're not in position to take QB1, the worst thing you can do is get desperate and talk yourself into QB4 or QB5. History says that has an astronomically low probability of turning into a franchise quarterback. If the Vikings want to find their franchise QB in the draft, they need to make sure he’s the consensus QB1. Trade up or don’t draft one at all. Funny side note: Kevin O'Connell was also the 5th QB taken in his draft, and he didn't pan out either. * Also for those asking, why 3+ Pro Bowls for franchise designation? With the recent trend of star QB's opting out of the Pro Bowl and borderline / mid QB's replacing them, you can't just go by 1 or 2 Pro Bowls. That would include players like Jacoby Brissett, Mac Jones, Geno Smith, and Tua Tagovailoa. I don't think anybody would classify those guys as true franchise QB's. @PhilMackey @jzulgad @DexsTweets @thorku @SKORNorth
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One last thing since we always say we just want one Super Bowl before we die! I modified the table to identify Super Bowl winners instead of my original franchise QB model of 3+ Pro Bowls. Happy to be the resident Purple Daily analytics guy if you ever want me to construct predictive models or data visualizations like this for the show. Again thanks for what you do and I'll continue watching every day. SKOL! @PhilMackey @jzulgad @DexsTweets @thorku @SKORNorth
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This is awesome research from Dave.
We discussed on today's Purple Daily
Dave Yount@DavesAnalytics
Hey Phil, Judd, Declan, and Thor — huge fan of Purple Daily. As someone who’s worked in analytics in pro sports, I wanted to propose a new angle for discussion. First, I want to preface my research by saying that I bought a JJ McCarthy jersey after the draft. I really wanted him to be the guy. I am also a big fan of Thor's draft evaluations. So please don't take this as hate. Just wanted to add some data and talking points to your recent discussions on the matter. I built a table of every QB5 since 1980, and if you define a franchise QB as 3+ Pro Bowls, the data is pretty clear. Teams are 183% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB2. Teams are 240% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB3. Teams are 467% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB4. The drop-off is incredibly steep. QB5's almost never pan out, and JJ McCarthy was drafted higher than any QB5 in history. Combining those odds with the expectations of a top 10 overall pick is a massive organizational failure by the Vikings front office. I don't want to say the kid never had a chance, but the historical odds of his draft position show that he only had an 8% chance of becoming a franchise QB, a 4% chance of becoming a star QB, and a 2% chance of winning a Super Bowl as a starting QB. I've heard so much about patience, sample size, development, and age when it comes to this McCarthy conundrum. Not nearly enough is being said about his draft position. Even if Kevin O'Connell was a miracle worker and the greatest QB developer of all-time, the odds of him developing a star QB from the QB5 slot is less than 5%. Only 2 QB's drafted 5th at their position in the last 45 years turned out to be stars (Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts). Only one (Hurts) won a Super Bowl as a starting QB. Beyond those two outliers, the best QB5 outcomes like Marc Bulger, Andy Dalton, and Matt Schaub were borderline franchise QB's at best. The Vikings made the exact same mistake with Christian Ponder (QB4 at #12). If you're not in position to take QB1, the worst thing you can do is get desperate and talk yourself into QB4 or QB5. History says that has an astronomically low probability of turning into a franchise quarterback. If the Vikings want to find their franchise QB in the draft, they need to make sure he’s the consensus QB1. Trade up or don’t draft one at all. Funny side note: Kevin O'Connell was also the 5th QB taken in his draft, and he didn't pan out either. * Also for those asking, why 3+ Pro Bowls for franchise designation? With the recent trend of star QB's opting out of the Pro Bowl and borderline / mid QB's replacing them, you can't just go by 1 or 2 Pro Bowls. That would include players like Jacoby Brissett, Mac Jones, Geno Smith, and Tua Tagovailoa. I don't think anybody would classify those guys as true franchise QB's. @PhilMackey @jzulgad @DexsTweets @thorku @SKORNorth
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@PhilMackey Thanks for the shout out and for discussing my research on the show! Hilarious stuff about Robin Yount haha! Wish I could tell you for sure but I've never met him. Maybe distant cousins although my Dad does have an awesome collection of his game used jerseys and bats. @jzulgad
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Final note: If you look at the same table and highlight the Vikings QB selections over the last 45 years, you'll see they've never drafted a QB higher than QB3 (Teddy Bridgewater). They are 0/1 on the QB3 slot, 0/2 on the QB4 slot, and now likely 0/2 on the QB5 slot. Can't keep taking low percentage swings when the best QB's are already off the board. It's a terrible strategy that perfectly explains why the Vikings haven't had a true franchise QB in almost half a century. @PhilMackey @jzulgad @DexsTweets @thorku @SKORNorth
English
Hey Phil, Judd, Declan, and Thor — huge fan of Purple Daily. As someone who’s worked in analytics in pro sports, I wanted to propose a new angle for discussion.
First, I want to preface my research by saying that I bought a JJ McCarthy jersey after the draft. I really wanted him to be the guy. I am also a big fan of Thor's draft evaluations. So please don't take this as hate. Just wanted to add some data and talking points to your recent discussions on the matter.
I built a table of every QB5 since 1980, and if you define a franchise QB as 3+ Pro Bowls, the data is pretty clear. Teams are 183% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB2. Teams are 240% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB3. Teams are 467% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB4. The drop-off is incredibly steep.
QB5's almost never pan out, and JJ McCarthy was drafted higher than any QB5 in history. Combining those odds with the expectations of a top 10 overall pick is a massive organizational failure by the Vikings front office. I don't want to say the kid never had a chance, but the historical odds of his draft position show that he only had an 8% chance of becoming a franchise QB, a 4% chance of becoming a star QB, and a 2% chance of winning a Super Bowl as a starting QB.
I've heard so much about patience, sample size, development, and age when it comes to this McCarthy conundrum. Not nearly enough is being said about his draft position. Even if Kevin O'Connell was a miracle worker and the greatest QB developer of all-time, the odds of him developing a star QB from the QB5 slot is less than 5%.
Only 2 QB's drafted 5th at their position in the last 45 years turned out to be stars (Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts). Only one (Hurts) won a Super Bowl as a starting QB. Beyond those two outliers, the best QB5 outcomes like Marc Bulger, Andy Dalton, and Matt Schaub were borderline franchise QB's at best.
The Vikings made the exact same mistake with Christian Ponder (QB4 at #12). If you're not in position to take QB1, the worst thing you can do is get desperate and talk yourself into QB4 or QB5. History says that has an astronomically low probability of turning into a franchise quarterback. If the Vikings want to find their franchise QB in the draft, they need to make sure he’s the consensus QB1. Trade up or don’t draft one at all.
Funny side note: Kevin O'Connell was also the 5th QB taken in his draft, and he didn't pan out either.
* Also for those asking, why 3+ Pro Bowls for franchise designation? With the recent trend of star QB's opting out of the Pro Bowl and borderline / mid QB's replacing them, you can't just go by 1 or 2 Pro Bowls. That would include players like Jacoby Brissett, Mac Jones, Geno Smith, and Tua Tagovailoa. I don't think anybody would classify those guys as true franchise QB's.
@PhilMackey @jzulgad @DexsTweets @thorku @SKORNorth
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StickToTheModel.com/teams/be-a-gm
English
@tejfbanalytics @josephjefe This is the most baffling part about Kwesi's time with the Vikings! How could a successful Wall Street commodities trader get fleeced on almost every trade he ever made in the NFL? Even if he didn't know anything about football you'd expect him to add value via draft capital.
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@Matt_Peterss @ArifHasanNFL Not tongue in cheek haha! There are so many bad takes on analytics in football. Lazy too as they never do their research. As a Vikings fan and somebody who worked in sports analytics professionally it was especially painful to read during Kwesi’s tenure.
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@ArifHasanNFL I agree that this is a superb article but knowing the compliments I've seen between you and your following I couldn't help but thinking the term "best article of the year" might be a little tongue in cheek given the current state of the calendar
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they're calling it the best article ever written and are saying things like "ignore the subject-verb disagreement in the promo post"
Arif Hasan, but NFL 🏈@ArifHasanNFL
The details surrounding Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's firing was puzzling. I break down what I've read, what I've heard, what his track record is and why I think there's more at play than him simply being bad at drafting wideleft.football/p/the-kwesi-ko…
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@ArifHasanNFL Not only the best writing on the subject by a mile but the best NFL writing of the year! Especially loved the nuanced take on analytics. Really awesome stuff @ArifHasanNFL 👏
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The details surrounding Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's firing was puzzling. I break down what I've read, what I've heard, what his track record is and why I think there's more at play than him simply being bad at drafting
wideleft.football/p/the-kwesi-ko…
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@K_Kisner @KizFoundation Thanks so much for the response! I just sent the donation. Your foundation is doing awesome things and I'm happy to support.
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@DavesAnalytics @KizFoundation Definitely one of mine. Not sure I ever used it in competition.
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Running this back! Come support @KizFoundation instagram.com/p/DI1ORkyOtPD/…
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Episode 10 just dropped!
youtu.be/oQEi5nbW9bU
Audio Note: We had a technical issue with echo during the introduction, but it improves as the video goes along—thanks for bearing with us!
In our tenth episode of the Sport Analytics (@SportAnaIytics) Podcast, our host Amrit Vignesh (@avsportsanalyst) chats with Alexander Rogers, currently a Football Analyst for the Tennessee Titans (@Titans). Alex’s journey stretches from playing collegiate football at Drake University (@DrakeUniversity) to refining his data chops as a senior analyst at Hy-Vee, Inc. (@HyVee), then diving into NBA strategy and research with the Phoenix Suns (@Suns) before making the jump to the National Football League (@NFL).
He walks us through how balancing on-field responsibilities at Drake honed his discipline and communication, why short, visual insights often matter more than long reports in a busy NFL front office, and how next-generation college tracking data shapes draft prep and player evaluations. If you’re curious about blending a gridiron background with analytics, this episode offers the real-world roadmap from college ball to professional R&D.
Key Takeaways:
From Gridiron to Analytics: How a collegiate playing career helps interpret data and speak coaches’ language—though it’s not a must-have.
Season vs. Offseason: Short-term coach-focused insights in-season vs. deep R&D and scouting analysis after the final whistle.
Hybrid Skills in Action: Learning to handle everything from data engineering to front-office stakeholder questions at a “startup-like” NFL analytics group.
Visuals & One-Liners: Why color-coded dashboards and quick-hitting metrics turn heads and drive decisions at the highest levels.
Strategic Networking: Tips on building a standout portfolio, refining cold outreach, and showing teams you’re ready to contribute.
🔔 Subscribe to our channel for more episodes featuring leaders in sports analytics, career insights, and technical deep-dives!
📧 For inquiries or collaborations, contact me at dave@sportanalytics.com.
🎵 Music Credit: Intro and outro music for this episode is “Nomu” by Good Kid.
#SportsAnalytics #FootballAnalytics #NFL #NFLanalytics #TennesseeTitans #CollegeFootball #DataScience #PlayerTracking #NBA #PhoenixSuns #Visualization #CareerAdvice #DrakeUniversity
YouTube
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@MissAlissaS @criscarter80 Definitely the 2000-01 season! You can tell because of the patch on the front. I actually own the jersey he’s wearing in the photo. Same jersey he was wearing when he made his 1000th catch.
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I am happy to announce that I have accepted a position as a Hockey Research & Development Intern at the @penguins for the summer of 2025! Thank you to the staff in the operations and R&D departments of the Penguins for the opportunity! #LetsGoPens #SportsAnalytics #Hockey
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Dave Yount nag-retweet
INTRODUCING: Introduction to Basketball Analytics in R by @SportAnaIytics!
We are really excited to present you this course by @avsportsanalyst which goes over introductory techniques in data science and statistics applied to basketball datasets. You will learn the concepts of data visualization, introductory machine learning techniques, linear regression, logistic regression, etc. You won't only be presented with ~7 hours of valuable video content but be able to apply what you learn through personal projects which you can add to your portfolios (check out the SportAnalytics portfolio option!). You will also be presented with a certification in the end which can be useful for any internship and job applications in the basketball, or even the general sports analytics industry. We are really excited to finally launch this and hope to see great feedback on the course!
sportanalytics.com
*If you are interested in football as well, check out @JonahAnalytics's new Introduction to Football Analytics in R course 👀
#SportAnalytics #Basketball #BasketballAnalytics #DataScience #Statistics
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Dave Yount nag-retweet
INTRODUCING: Introduction to Football Analytics in R by @SportAnaIytics!
We are really excited to present this course by @JonahAnalytics which goes over introductory techniques in data science and statistics applied to football datasets. You will learn the concepts of data visualization, introductory machine learning techniques, linear regression, logistic regression, etc. You won't only be presented with ~7 hours of valuable video content but be able to apply what you learn through personal projects which you can add to your portfolios (check out the SportAnalytics portfolio option!). You will also be presented with a certification in the end which can be useful for any internship and job applications in the football, or even the general sports analytics industry. We are really excited to finally launch this and hope to see great feedback on the course!
sportanalytics.com
*If you are interested in football as well, check out @avsportsanalyst's new Introduction to Basketball Analytics in R course 👀
#SportAnalytics #Football #FootballAnalytics #DataScience #Statistics
English
Dave Yount nag-retweet
INTRODUCING🥳:
Introduction to Basketball Analytics in R by @SportAnaIytics
#SportsAnalytics #Basketball #BasketballAnalytics
English
Dave Yount nag-retweet
Big news at @SportAnaIytics! We have officially released our first two courses: Introduction to Basketball Analytics with R taught by @avsportsanalyst and Introduction to Football Analytics with R taught by @JonahAnalytics!
#SportAnalytics #Football #Basketball #DataScience
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Dave Yount nag-retweet
Big news at Sport Analytics! We have officially released our first two courses: Introduction to Basketball Analytics with R taught by @avsportsanalyst and Introduction to Football Analytics with R taught by @JonahAnalytics! We are really glad to release these courses which will teach you about various introductory techniques (visualization, machine learning, linear regression, logistic regression, etc.). As part of this course, you don’t only receive valuable video content from our esteemed instructors but also are provided with a basis for valuable personal projects which you can use as part of your portfolios when applying for various internships and jobs within the sports analytics industry! The dashboard also has an option for you to create your own portfolio which allows you to showcase any projects you would like to highlight, whether it is associated or not associated with the SportAnalytics organization. We anticipate on releasing our intermediate courses in both football and basketball analytics soon, so if you buy our introductory course in one of those sports, you can buy the intermediate course as part of a bundle! At the end of the courses, you will receive a certification which you can also highlight when trying to break into the industry. We are very excited to witness the growth of this organization and can’t wait to hear feedback from students after finishing their respective courses!
#SportAnalytics #DataScience #Statistics #Football #FootballAnalytics #Basketball #BasketballAnalytics
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