Vaibhav Joshi

I genuinely think India’s power transmission and cable story is a multi year compounding story… and we are still very early ⚡️ Not early in the way people casually use the word in markets. Early because the real demand shock hasn’t even arrived yet. India just touched ~250 GW peak power demand for the first time ever this summer. And this happened BEFORE: • mass EV adoption • AI data center explosion • semiconductor fabs • full manufacturing scale up That’s what makes this interesting. Because India’s per capita electricity consumption is still only ~1,400 kWh. China is at ~6,500 kWh. USA is above ~12,000 kWh. Think about how absurd that gap is. We are trying to build a $10 trillion economy while consuming barely 20-25% of the electricity China consumes per person. At some point, that gap HAS to close. And when it does, India will need one of the biggest electrical infrastructure buildouts in its history. That’s exactly why the government has already committed ₹9.16 TRILLION toward transmission upgrades by 2032. Not generation. Transmission. Because the real challenge is no longer producing electricity. The challenge is moving electricity fast enough to where demand is exploding. And demand is exploding everywhere simultaneously. India’s electricity demand is projected to grow ~6.4% CAGR till 2030. Then comes AI. India’s data center capacity was ~1.4 GW in 2024. Another ~5 GW is expected by 2030. And AI server racks consume 5-6x more power than traditional cloud infrastructure. Every AI query eventually becomes: a transformer, cable, switchgear and transmission line story. Then add EVs. Then add fully electrified railways. Indian Railways alone eliminated ~17.8 BILLION liters of diesel consumption after electrification. Then add renewables. India wants 500 GW non fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and plans to add ~470 GW solar + wind capacity over the next decade. But here’s where the real bottleneck starts appearing: The best renewable energy locations are sitting in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Ladakh… while the actual demand sits in Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru and industrial corridors. So India now has no choice but to rebuild the electrical spine of the country. Transmission network expansion: ~4.85 lakh ckm → ~6.48 lakh ckm. Transformation capacity: 1,251 GVA → 2,342 GVA. This is not incremental growth. This is an entirely new grid being built in real time. And this is where the cable story becomes massive. Because globally, high voltage cable capacity is already tight. Europe and the US are aggressively spending on: • HVDC corridors • offshore wind interconnectors • grid modernisation • renewable evacuation Global cable giants like Prysmian, Nexans and NKT already have multi year order visibility because HV/EHV cable demand is exploding globally. And these are not easy factories to build. HV/EHV cable plants require: • specialised machinery • technical approvals • years of execution expertise • very high capital investment Which means supply cannot suddenly appear overnight. That’s why utilisation levels across serious cable manufacturers are running extremely high. And now India is entering the same cycle. The Indian wires & cables industry itself is expected to move toward a ~₹1.9 lakh crore opportunity over the coming years driven by transmission, renewables, railways, real estate, industrial capex and exports. And look at what Indian players are doing already: Polycab already commands ~25-26% market share in India’s wires & cables industry and has been aggressively expanding manufacturing capacity across segments. KEI Industries is scaling capacity heavily toward EPC + EHV opportunities because transmission demand visibility is becoming massive. RR Kabel is expanding aggressively after strong volume growth and export traction. Dynamic Cables and Universal Cables are directly exposed to transmission and utility capex where demand visibility is now stretching multiple years out. This is important because once utilisation crosses ~75-80%, cable businesses stop behaving like commodity businesses… …and start behaving like pricing power businesses. That’s the phase which may now begin in India. Because suddenly every meter of cable matters: • HV cables • EHV cables • underground transmission • renewable evacuation • industrial electrification • data center cabling This is why companies across the ecosystem are reporting insane numbers: • Hitachi Energy orders up 365% YoY • Siemens order book above ₹43,000 crore • BHEL order book near ₹2.4 lakh crore • PGCIL pipeline above ₹3 lakh crore till FY32 And then there are cable players: • Polycab • KEI Industries • RR Kabel • Finolex Cables • Dynamic Cables • Universal Cables Most people still see cables as simple housing wires. I think the market is slowly realising they are becoming strategic infrastructure assets. That’s the funny thing about infrastructure cycles. Nobody gets excited in the beginning because wires, transformers and substations don’t feel exciting. But neither did telecom towers once upon a time. Then the entire digital economy ended up sitting on top of them. People are looking at AI apps. I’m looking at the electrical backbone underneath them. That’s where the real supercycle may be hiding ⚡️

@sourodeep_b It's a F&O stock circuit gets revised in F&O stocks.

@InvestWithJoshi How did the stock go above the circuit limit? Now at 10.5%. Circuit limits get revised mid session?

Locked in 10% UC early signs but i think worse is over for Kalyan 🚀

@Asan_research we should stabilize near 90-92 in some time.

I think rupee will come back to below 90 levels in next 3 months

@manish21688 Pure MFI NBFCs will always do better in the growth phase.

@InvestWithJoshi Utkarsh small finance bank can also do well from here. MFI stress reducing and got bit war chest with their QIP sometime back.

The MFI space should do great now that all concerns regarding crude oil and LPG, which were dampening sentiments, have gone. Q1 FY 27 will be great and will reassure the markets that the MFI cycle has started its growth phase again. Stocks one can track: 1️⃣ Satin Creditcare 2️⃣ Arman 3️⃣ Muthoot Microfin

@JimmyGupta111 Then no options available.

@InvestWithJoshi It's ban by SEBI

Nifty Microcap has rallied 30% from its March bottom. Investors who waited for certainty instead of opportunity are still watching from the sidelines and their eventual FOMO could add more fuel to this move. Eyes on the next all-time high. 🚀

@JimmyGupta111 Motilal Oswal Nifty Microcap 250 Index Fund Direct Growth

@InvestWithJoshi Any fund? Nifty Micro 250

You do not need ₹35,000 crores of inventory to do ₹35,000 crores of sales. Because Kalyan turns over its inventory roughly 3 times a year, and because 222 of its 342 Indian stores are funded by outside franchisee capital, the ₹14,000 crore inventory figure on their balance sheet is perfectly accurate and highly efficient.

@FairmontLlp @InvestWithJoshi Imventory of franchise belongs to franchisee partners not company and hence not part of books, I am sorry to say this needs to be explained if yearly revenue is 25k crores why would they keep only 14k crores inventory

Kalyan Jewellers story is honestly one of the best lessons in how markets can completely lose their mind while the actual business just keeps grinding. From an all time high near 794 in Jan 2025, the stock crashed almost 40% in a few weeks, wiping out over 20000 crore in market cap. And the irony is the business itself was firing on all cylinders. Revenue crossing 25000 crore, aggressive expansion across India and Middle East, first store opening in the US. So what actually went wrong. First, a real event. Govt cut customs duty on gold from 15% to 6% in July 2024. This compressed inventory values overnight and Kalyan booked a one time hit of around 120 to 130 crore. Genuine impact, but management was upfront that this was industry wide and fully recoverable by Q4. Then came the real circus. January 2025 turned into a full blown rumor mill. IT raid rumors that never happened. Fake inventory claims that collapse the moment you look at 450 crore of debt repaid plus 170 crore in dividends, fake books just dont generate that kind of cash. A franchisee revolt story that got massively blown up, when in reality only 3 to 4 partners were terminated over contract breaches. Then the wildest one, bribing fund managers at Motilal Oswal, which MOAMC themselves publicly denied, sending the stock up 7% the very next day. And finally FIR rumors that turned out to be just a civil dispute with one ex franchisee. On top of all this, promoter pledge panic. People saw the pledge percentage rise and assumed distress, but most of it was old collateral from the Warburg Pincus buyback back in FY20, and the fresh top up was simply because collateral value fell after the stock itself crashed. Classic chicken and egg. Fast forward to FY26 and the numbers speak for themselves. Revenue past 35700 crore, PAT at 1350 crore, ROCE near 29%. The capital light FOCO engine is clearly working. Whats next is what gets me excited. 150 new stores planned for FY27. Zero non GML debt targeted by H1 FY27. A brand new regional brand to take on unorganised local jewellers. Candere already PAT positive and scaling with 50 more stores. Plus non core real estate being sold off to clean the balance sheet even further. The part most people will miss is the EBITDA vs PAT divergence. EBITDA margin looks weaker because FOCO partners take their share of revenue, but PAT margin expands because interest cost basically disappears once debt is gone. Thats the real story, not the headline EBITDA print. If FY28 plays out as guided, revenue could be near 50000 crore and PAT crossing 2100 crore, and management has even hinted at reopening COCO stores once the balance sheet is fully clean, which could be the next leg of margin expansion. Sometimes the best setups happen exactly when the noise is loudest and the fundamentals are quietly compounding underneath. Kalyan feels like a textbook case of that.

@microcp2mltibgr No surprises here. Valuations weren't exactly cheap and earnings have been a mixed bag. That’s why only a few themes and specific stocks are actually performing. If you aren't stock-picking, you're missing out.

Markets aren’t as bullish as social media is making them out to be. If you look beneath the headlines, only a handful of stocks are up more than 5% today, and an even smaller number have gained over 10%. The rally remains highly selective rather than broad-based. Many of the stocks leading the gains today had already seen strong moves on Friday, which is why they’re finding it difficult to extend those gains significantly higher. Overall, this feels more like a stock-specific market than a market-wide bull run.

Good Days ahead 😇

This inventory is not owned by the franchisees. Under Kalyan's FOCO (Franchisee-Owned, Company-Operated) model, the franchisee partners invest their own capital to fund the inventory. Because the franchisees own that specific inventory, it stays off Kalyan Jewellers' balance sheet. The ₹14,174.6 crores sitting on the balance sheet is Kalyan's own inventory, which caters to their network of Company-Owned Company-Operated (COCO) stores, their international showrooms, Candere, and backend/pipeline manufacturing inventory.

@InvestWithJoshi balance sheet shows 14000 cr on inventory which must be mostly owned by franchisees..their short term borrowings is 4000 cr odd..customer advances is 3000 cr odd and their trade payables is 3300 cr ..

Half the so called consistent compounders in Nifty today won't be there 5 years from now HUL is bleeding share to brands that didn't exist a decade ago. Reliance built the best grocery network in India and is still losing the battle for the next generation of shoppers. Traditional IT is moving at boardroom speed while AI is moving at startup speed. This is what happens when a company gets too large. Capital allocation shifts from building to defending. Every earnings call becomes a narrative about protecting margin rather than capturing new markets. The next leg of wealth creation in India is not coming from these names. It's coming from companies that are still genuinely hungry, where the founder still has something to prove. Most people won't rotate until it's obvious. By then it's too late.

@GingerInvest44 @manish21688 Thanks!

@manish21688 @InvestWithJoshi I lkke the article

Oswal Pumps was once trading at 850 and now trading at 398 - Still no one interested Zaggle once was trading at 420 and now tradin at 208 0 - Still no one interested Awfis space was trading at 650 and now trading at 303 - Still no one interested Are you interested in these stocks now?

@yogibaba32 Sb time time ki baat h.

@InvestWithJoshi Something fishy with this stock

The way I see it: The EV story isn't just about who assembles the battery. It's about who controls the chemistry inside it. China understood that years ago. India is only now starting to build that capability. DMC. NMP. Electrolyte salts. Graphite anodes. These sound like boring chemical products. But they may end up being some of the most important pieces of India's EV supply chain over the next decade. And that's the part of the story most investors still aren't watching.

And BAL isn't alone. Across India, a battery materials ecosystem is quietly taking shape: 🧪 Gujarat Fluorochemicals → LiPF6 & PVDF 🧪 Neogen → electrolytes & lithium salts 🧪 Acutaas → electrolyte additives 🧪 Tatva Chintan → specialty electrolyte salts 🧪 HEG → synthetic graphite anodes Different products. Same theme. Replace imports. Build domestic capability. Capture more of the EV value chain.

🇨🇳 China doesn't just make EV batteries. It controls the chemicals that make EV batteries possible. 80% of global graphite supply. ~90% of anode and cathode material manufacturing. Dominance across lithium, cobalt and graphite refining. Which means every time India sells an EV, someone in China's chemical chain gets paid. But that's starting to change... 👇