OrdinalMac

🚨 **The Shadow Accord Explained** 🚨 The Fed & Treasury are ending their 70-year "divorce" to institute **Fiscal Dominance**—rigging the game to suppress yields and ensure US solvency [1], [2]. **The Playbook:** 🔹 **Supply Squeeze:** Treasury Secretary Bessent "starves" the long end by issuing T-Bills instead of Bonds ("Billization"), creating artificial scarcity [3], [4]. 🔹 **Shadow QE:** Incoming Fed Chair Warsh exempts Treasuries from bank leverage ratios (SLR), forcing banks to absorb the debt [5], [6]. 🔹 **The Narrative:** Rate cuts are justified by an "AI Productivity Boom" rather than inflation data, allowing easing despite sticky prices [7], [8]. **The Goal:** Manage the $10T debt wall, neutralize "Bond Vigilantes," and engineer a massive structural rally in long-duration bonds $tlt

@tathvamasi6 Inflation goes from 2-8 in a week haha?

Another prediction

@zerohedge @SmedleyButlerUS

*TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.93%, LOWEST SINCE APRIL 2025

@investinguab Unless theres a deflationary recession

$TLT is up 1.4% in the last year excluding dividends and there are accounts on here with large followings who have touted it for years. If the market goes up or down, if rates go up or down, I can 100% guarantee you that there will be better places to put your money.

@ratlpolicy @toly Wars also!

Narrator: It was, in fact, largely because of Social Security and Medicare.

@RepThomasMassie Demand the unredcated CIA files as well or else what are we doing

Should DOJ investigate crimes based on information revealed in Epstein files, or should the country just move on?

@0xpension @negligible_cap Wow exact quote from CBRE CEO-"If there are less office workers in the long run as a result of AI, there will be less demand for office space”

@OrdinalMac @negligible_cap bingo

AI is making everyone sell first and think later. Yesterday was financial advisors, 2 days ago was insurance brokers, everyday is SAAS. What was today? Commercial real estate services: $CBRE, $JLL, $CWK got smoked today, all down 15% or more at one point. Why? People are worried about a competing AI product / service that hasn’t even been created yet. What are we doing here people?

@Josue_IEspinoza @commonsenseplay 15% of my portfolio is $tlt 92 jan 21 2028

@commonsenseplay You have leaps on $TLT?

THE BEST PERFORMING ASSET OVER THE NEXT 2 YEARS WILL NOT BE STOCKS! Not a guaranteed moonshot (risks like sticky debt/fiscal issues remain), but if AI truly bends the curve, $TLT looks positioned as one of the standout performers ahead. If AI delivers the deflationary shock many expect - slashing costs, boosting productivity, and crushing long-term inflation, long-duration Treasuries stand to benefit massively. $TLT (currently $88) could see serious upside: - Forecasts point to $115–$129 by end-2026 which implies a +30–45% potential In a stronger deflation scenario (e.g., inflation goes to 0% or negative, per views like Cathie Wood's or Truflation tracker), long bonds could rally even harder harder! Bullish AI equates to deflation thesis already echoed by analysts calling TLT a direct play on falling real/nominal rates. Couple that with Trumps new FED chair pick and 2026 will be the year of the Bond!

🚨 **The Shadow Accord Explained** 🚨 The Fed & Treasury are ending their 70-year "divorce" to institute **Fiscal Dominance**—rigging the game to suppress yields and ensure US solvency [1], [2]. **The Playbook:** 🔹 **Supply Squeeze:** Treasury Secretary Bessent "starves" the long end by issuing T-Bills instead of Bonds ("Billization"), creating artificial scarcity [3], [4]. 🔹 **Shadow QE:** Incoming Fed Chair Warsh exempts Treasuries from bank leverage ratios (SLR), forcing banks to absorb the debt [5], [6]. 🔹 **The Narrative:** Rate cuts are justified by an "AI Productivity Boom" rather than inflation data, allowing easing despite sticky prices [7], [8]. **The Goal:** Manage the $10T debt wall, neutralize "Bond Vigilantes," and engineer a massive structural rally in long-duration bonds $tlt

@grok @christi10006880 @SpecialSitsNews @grok would you say this looks more likely with Warsh’s recent comments

The post outlines a speculated "Shadow Accord"—a policy shift reuniting Fed and Treasury efforts for "fiscal dominance" to suppress bond yields and manage US debt. Key tactics: - Treasury issues more short-term T-Bills to scarce long bonds (Bessent's "Billization"). - Fed exempts Treasuries from bank rules, pushing banks to buy debt (Warsh's "Shadow QE"). - Justify rate cuts via "AI productivity boom." Goal: Handle $10T debt rollover, avert market crashes, and rally long bonds like TLT. This is based on recent appointments but remains unconfirmed strategy.

Trump really needs to take back this Warsh appointment and replace him with Rick Rieder. Carnage in QE and back end rate sensitive names (long term rate sensitivity/tech, etc.)... Not that it matters to me anymore, but if he wants any chance at the midterms, he can't have a market crash into the spring/summer.

@SpecialSitsNews @CapitalCrashout

🚨 **The Shadow Accord Explained** 🚨 The Fed & Treasury are ending their 70-year "divorce" to institute **Fiscal Dominance**—rigging the game to suppress yields and ensure US solvency [1], [2]. **The Playbook:** 🔹 **Supply Squeeze:** Treasury Secretary Bessent "starves" the long end by issuing T-Bills instead of Bonds ("Billization"), creating artificial scarcity [3], [4]. 🔹 **Shadow QE:** Incoming Fed Chair Warsh exempts Treasuries from bank leverage ratios (SLR), forcing banks to absorb the debt [5], [6]. 🔹 **The Narrative:** Rate cuts are justified by an "AI Productivity Boom" rather than inflation data, allowing easing despite sticky prices [7], [8]. **The Goal:** Manage the $10T debt wall, neutralize "Bond Vigilantes," and engineer a massive structural rally in long-duration bonds (TLT 🚀) [1], [2], [9].

@CapitalCrashout @TaviCosta @zerohedge I disagree and this was obvious I literally was using the term accord for weeks

@OrdinalMac @TaviCosta @zerohedge They can fuck things up but that’s about it. They’re not colluding to make some pro gamer move.

So much for a hawkish incoming Fed chair. A Fed–Treasury accord that’s about to fundamentally reshape interest rates. None of us own enough hard assets. H/t @zerohedge

@LogicalThesis Who cares if they do YCC optics won’t matter if bond vigilantes want to get in front of the freight train of fed and treasury coordinating have fun losing money

@OrdinalMac Lack of independence of the fed is not bullish

Can't be good for bonds $TLT

@CapitalCrashout @TaviCosta @zerohedge Exactly the Fed doesn’t control anything other than front end—but fed and treasury working together can control a lot. Think

@TaviCosta @zerohedge Front end of the curve has nothing to do with the long end of the curve

Silver over Brent Crude Oil versus $TLT How do you feel about a $200 TLT next month?

@rowdyamerican69 @EricLDaugh Not necessarily if you were to end IORB and codify SLR exemptions and force banks to lend to main street not wall st

Cutting rates isn’t a growth plan. It’s a painkiller. You want the debt to look small? Grow the denominator AND stop lighting money on fire. If the Fed caves to political pressure, you’ll get a sugar high, a weaker dollar, and prices creeping back up. Warsh should be independent or don’t bother.

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump says it's time for interest rates to PLUMMET and that economic growth will make the debt look "very small" "They're gonna be lowered. We're WAY high on interest!" Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh MUST make it happen!

@LawrenceLepard They will end IORB and make SLR exemptions permanent while lowering fed funds and rates will trend back to 0

Best chart i have seen in a long time. All eyes on the US 10yr. (source: Stewart Thomson)

@krugermacro What is the nature and purpose of a "Treasury-Fed accord" if not to, ultimately, monetize the debt?

Kevin Warsh is rumored to be the incoming Fed Chair, with Trump's announcement expected tomorrow. The spike in Polymarket odds suggests a leak. Warsh has advocated for a structural overhaul of the Federal Reserve and a "new Treasury-Fed Accord." He posits that an AI-driven productivity boom is inherently disinflationary, providing the basis for aggressive rate cuts. He also contends that the Fed's balance sheet has been used to subsidize Wall Street and should be reduced significantly, signaling a strong stance against QE.