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CovertProps

@ProneDaddy

just a regular guy with decent reasoning skills $BTC $MSTR

Sumali Nisan 2022
2.1K Sinusundan2K Mga Tagasunod
Parker
Parker@TheOtherParker_·
Jfc, why is $STRC crashing still. Especially with $BTC up, cash reserves at Strategy growing $100M/wk, bi-monthly dividends now in place, and $SATA trading really well. I think someone (or a group) is shorting. We'll call them "Jane Soros" (JS). We won't know for sure until the short interest report comes out around the end of the month, and even then, we may not fully know if (a) the short is closed intra-period and (b) the short used derivatives. $STRC is an especially attractive stock to short, because it has a soft-peg of $100, but that only exists in the minds of the roughly $8B in retail capital holding it. There's no formal mechanism to push the price to $100. Increased dividends help, but it's not a forcing function, the market still needs to bid. Shorts make all of their money when they convince the other side of the market to capitulate. When shorts push the price down, every order that they fill against is a share that they will need to buyback later, likely at a higher price. So, the only way they make money is if they convince the other side to capitulate at the bottom, giving the short the exit liquidity they need to cover (buyback the shares). This is why shorts have a field day in crypto in general, because it's heavily retail dominated and easy to move emotions around (or stop hunt or liquidate). The situation is especially bad with STRC though, because there's the expectation that it'll trade mostly at $100, so even a 5% deviation from that appears catastrophic to the narrative and can cause people to capitulate. Additionally, there are multiple crypto projects, including @apyx_fi , that are built on top, which could create a cascade of selling if people start to bail there. STRC is also the perfect instrument to short because (a) the cost to short is effectively zero if timed correctly and (b) the Strategy ATM provides a cap on losses. So, let's take a look at the JS strategy here: 1. Start to build the short position immediately after ex-dividend on May 15 - an especially good ex-dividend because it occurred on a Friday with lower liquidity, so easier to start to push the price. This would be a slow build though, not a huge short immediately. 2. Continue building the short position over the following weeks - the outright cost to borrow STRC is about 60bps (0.6%). 3. BTC rolling over creates the catalyst/fear condition to really push this, accelerate the selling. 4. Continue selling until June 5, and then start to cover into the close (we saw the June 5 close bounce). Cover more on June 8 as ex-dividend approaches. 5. After the bi-monthly vote passes and ex-dividend approaching doesn't seem to be completely resolving the price back to $100, reaccelerate the selling. 6. Make a risk/return calculation that continuing to short through ex-dividend and paying the ~1% is worth the potential profits of pushing the price down to $90 and covering there as more retail capitulates. 7. Cover before the end of the month when Strategy likely announces a dividend increase and employs additional tools to help push the price back to $100. This risk is always capped at average_short_price - $100, because everyone knows that $100 is the ceiling. With normal shorts, losses could be infinite, so shorting is a very risky game, but that is not the case here. So, if average short price is say $97, and JS can cover at $90, then JS could make $7 on $3 of risk. >100% risk/reward on a 2-4 wk trade. Not too shabby. $SATA is much more insulated from this because (a) the daily dividends make it MUCH more expensive to short, because JS would have to pay the dividends as part of the cost to short every day instead of closing out the position intra-dividend-period. SATA is also much more expensive to short outright, currently 460 bps (4.6%) instead of the 60 bps for STRC. So, the daily short cost for SATA is 1760 bps (17.6%) annualized while the daily short cost for STRC is 60 bps annualized. So, how does Strategy fix this situation? First, move to daily dividends - this meaningfully increases the cost to short. Second, raise the dividend to increase the cost to short. Third, continue rebuilding the cash buffer to shore up confidence and bring retail demand back. Fourth, consider announcing a change in ATM strategy to allow the price to go above $100 - this meaningfully changes the risk calculus for the shorts. The ultimate goal is to create a product that is maximally difficult to manipulate by the shorts. I have full faith that @saylor and team can resolve this situation in time. I am also certain they are keenly aware of these dynamics. So, if you're holding STRC, just have a little patience. Collect the dividends, scoop a little more if you want, and go touch grass. Panic selling is what the shorts want you to do, because that's their only way out.
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America News
America News@AmericaPartyX·
🚨 TRUMP BOARDS AIR FORCE ONE AT 3AM AFTER UFC EVENT President Trump boarded Air Force One at 3AM heading to France. The UFC event ended around 1AM. He just turned 80 and is working like he is 40. This man is an absolute workhorse. Have a safe flight Mr. President 🇺🇸
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Mark Levin - Netanyahu's Pedo Cuck
@vegastarr I've worked on this very part of the building. Just because you dont understand what they're doing doesnt mean they aren't working. Those "hammer blows" weren't "fixing" the metal. They were bending the overlap joint seal. And yeas, its not windy right there every single day 🤦
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vegastar
vegastar@vegastarr·
The Greatest Mystery Isn't What's Hidden... 🔺👁️ It's What's Standing In Plain Sight. 🏛️✨
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ClaudeDevs
ClaudeDevs@ClaudeDevs·
We've reset 5-hour and weekly rate limits for all users.
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Michael Saylor
Michael Saylor@saylor·
Congratulations @ElonMusk and $SPCX on a historic IPO. Thanks to you, 25% of the Mag8 now holds Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
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cygaar
cygaar@0xCygaar·
Greatest test of intelligence is asking someone what they think of Elon Musk
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CovertProps
CovertProps@ProneDaddy·
@gothburz They’d definetely be meeting the the aliens outside in fron to paparazzi
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
The official line is that they were a Norwegian trade delegation. Technically accurate, because they are Nordic, and there was trade. But they are also seven feet tall, telepathic, and arrived on the South Lawn without a vehicle. I am the Deputy Director of Visitor Logistics at the White House. I logged them into WAVES as FOREIGN DIGNITARIES (3), NON-TERRESTRIAL, NO MOTORCADE REQUIRED, and the meeting went extremely well. The Pleiadians requested the audience in March. They communicate telepathically, which the President respected immediately, because it meant nothing was in writing. They traveled 444 light-years to deliver a warning about our trajectory as a species, the kind of warning a doctor gives a patient who keeps asking if he can smoke in the waiting room. Atomic weapons. Ocean collapse. Machine intelligence. I did not take complete notes, because the meeting ran 25 minutes and he spent the first eleven asking where they got the jackets. Their opening offer: clean fusion, the cure for every disease, the propulsion equations. Free. Contingent on planetary disarmament. His advisors begged him not to negotiate against a species that reads minds. It turned out he is the one man alive with nothing to find. They reached into his mind expecting layer upon layer of deception and found a single image, perfectly clear: him, wearing one of their jackets. The delegation conferred for a long moment and informed us that in eleven thousand years of contact, no species had ever tried to buy the uniform. They called it coherence. They did not mean it as a compliment. He has already trademarked it. He countered. Landing rights, retroactive to 1947. Eighty years of unauthorized airspace use, invoiced with interest. Legal added a line item for the weather balloon story. Narrative services. We billed them for our own cover-up, and the tall one went silent for nine seconds, which I am told is how their species weeps. Greenland stays in the deal. They did not want Greenland. He said that's how he knew it was valuable. What kind of advanced civilization passes on waterfront? Then UFC Freedom 250. This Sunday. Seven bouts on the same lawn we were standing on. His birthday, which he assured them was a coincidence the universe keeps arranging. He offered them galactic distribution rights. Then he looked at the tall one for a long time and offered him the co-main event. Seven feet. Reach like a cathedral door. Walks around at a weight our scales log as an error. Someone said the commission would never sanction it. He appoints the commission. The tall one declined. He lowered the offer to the prelims. This is a negotiating technique. They asked if staging a cage fight on the negotiation site was a threat display. He said it was a Flag Day celebration, and also yes. I should note that an environmental group has sued to stop the octagon. Nobody has sued to stop the aliens. I forwarded this to Counsel as proof that the permitting process is working. Protocol required a gift exchange. They presented a small silver sphere that shows the holder the full consequences of his choices. He looked into it for four seconds and asked if it came in gold. You have all seen the photo. A groundskeeper took it through the magnolias. We told the press pool it was a costume rehearsal for a streaming series, and the pool, to their credit, wrote that down. The groundskeeper now works at the Department of Energy. I am told this is a promotion. There is also footage. He spotted the camera mid-meeting and pointed at it the way you'd point at a waiter whose name you intend to learn. Instead of having it confiscated, he licensed it on the spot. The leak is now official merchandise. Every time you share it, a royalty accrues. You have probably shared it. Have you checked? He thanks you for your business. The deal collapsed at dusk. The Pleiadians withdrew the fusion offer when he asked them to walk out before the main event as Special Guests of the Octagon. They said humanity was not ready. He had Counsel log that as a verbal option to renew. Final tally: our species declined the cure for every disease and counteroffered with pay-per-view. The delegation received two tickets to the Ellipse screening area. Not cageside. He does not give away cageside. They left without sound. One moment present, then elsewhere, like a fee disclosure. Two things before Sunday. The walkout jackets for the main card are red with gold embroidery. Licensed. The fusion fell through, but the jackets closed in an afternoon. And there are three seats on the South Lawn logged as HOLD, GUESTS OF THE PRINCIPAL, DO NOT ASSIGN. I did not enter that hold. The system says I did. He says everyone comes back to the table. We're the only planet with the belt.
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CovertProps
CovertProps@ProneDaddy·
@JackPosobiec We were funding dangerous bio labs in Ukraine that were under threat of Russian attack? If you just rearrange that sentence everything in the world makes a hell of a lot more sense
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Heidi
Heidi@blockchainchick·
“I promise not to sell the Bitcoin”
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CovertProps
CovertProps@ProneDaddy·
@stocktalkweekly Bro have you been watching the headlines over the past 10 years? This one doesn’t even seem that far fetched
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Stock Talk
Stock Talk@stocktalkweekly·
Dear community noters please don’t ruin the fun, it’s obviously a joke, unless you’re sub 15 IQ…
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Stock Talk
Stock Talk@stocktalkweekly·
*IRAN AGREES TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN RETURN FOR SPACEX IPO ALLOCATION
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Jesse Olson
Jesse Olson@JesseOlson·
A lot of people are calling out $BTC RSI bullish divergence on the weekly chart. Not confirmed yet, RSI can continue to diverge with lower prices. This was forecasted exactly 8 months ago. 🤝
Jesse Olson@JesseOlson

Assuming this is the #Bitcoin peak, and it doesn't mirror the previous cycle, expect different chart patterns. However, some patterns may repeat: - Price gets volatile at creates wicks at the peak - Bearish divergence at the top - Price retests the blue line - Price retests the 5th target box - Bullish divergence at the bottom

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The Long Investor
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest·
PPI in line tomorrow and US/Iran make a deal The market rips until the middle of July.
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Stock Talk
Stock Talk@stocktalkweekly·
Somewhere out there, a man is staring at his portfolio on his phone, while his wife is telling him about how Janice was mean to her at pilates, and she's asking him why he isn't paying attention to the story.
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Paul Murphy
Paul Murphy@paulbz·
We’re leaving Madrid & returning to London 🥹 What was meant to be 3-months somehow became nearly 3 years. We’ll miss Madrid deeply, but we’re excited for the next chapter back home in London. As part of the move, we’re selling our flat.. link below!
Paul Murphy tweet mediaPaul Murphy tweet mediaPaul Murphy tweet media
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CovertProps
CovertProps@ProneDaddy·
i tried creating loops for coding/debugging and let it run for 6 days but found 2 critical issues- 1- Opus legitimately sucks at root cause identification and then often starts layering unnecessary patches and creating a web of shit without addressing the underlying issue (no amount of prompting/instruction stopped this) 2- He writes and takes his own instruction too literally; thus implementing code that would sometimes break other parts of the system and then would even pass his future audit because his audit would only check his recent code.
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Duca
Duca@big_duca·
Is anyone actually using loops with AI? Sounds like a really effective way to funnel money out of your pocket. And into the AI labs.
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Ishaan Tiwari
Ishaan Tiwari@ishaan999·
@0x_rody Are people watching half hour long videos on twitter for real? There's no 2x speed option available
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rody
rody@0x_rody·
Anthropic engineer James Brady: "Every agent in production lies. We measured it. The good ones lie less, the great ones catch the lie before the user does." In 29 minutes, he walks through the verification stack he built and the patterns the Claude Code team adopted to keep agents honest at scale. Watch the full talk, then save the config below👇
rody@0x_rody

x.com/i/article/2063…

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